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Labor’s two-state conundrum: Polling highlights city-country divide

By Cameron Atfield

When it comes to opinion polling, Premier Steven Miles has never had it better.

This election campaign has seen his personal popularity soar and Labor’s vote – according to Resolve Strategic polling conducted for Brisbane Times last week – reach its highest level since Miles took the leadership.

Miles has also clawed back Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s advantage as preferred premier, trailing by just two points in the poll – well within the margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

Premier Steven Miles, picturedin Cairns last week, has been campaigning heavily in regional Queensland.

Premier Steven Miles, picturedin Cairns last week, has been campaigning heavily in regional Queensland.Credit: Cameron Atfield

What was not within the margin of error was Miles’s advantage in metropolitan electorates. In Brisbane, Miles holds a commanding 42-37 lead over Crisafulli in the preferred premier stakes, with 21 per cent undecided.

In regional Queensland, Crisafulli has a commanding 40-32 lead over Miles – also well outside the margin of error. But there are also more voters there – 28 per cent – who have not made up their minds about who they would prefer to occupy the hot-seat on level 40 at 1 William Street.

The strategies of both leaders, who have been blitzing central and northern Queensland over the past few weeks, suggests their internal party polling may be telling them a similar story – there are still thousands of voters to be won over in the seats that will decide this election.

And any good data-driven campaign would know what points to hit as it enters its final days.

A case in point: Crisafulli and his campaign message du jour of crime, one of the four policy priorities he has taken to the election. He has taken that message to Labor-held seats in the regions relentlessly for the entire campaign.

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The Resolve data backs that strategy up. While crime is a 13-point net negative for Labor in the city, it’s a whopping 30-point net negative in regional and rural Queensland.

The LNP’s other three priorities – housing, health and cost of living – are also more keenly felt in the regions. All are net positives for Labor in metropolitan areas, and net negatives in the regions.

David Crisafulli’s hometown beer in Ingham last week.

David Crisafulli’s hometown beer in Ingham last week.Credit: Catherine Strohfeldt

Little surprise, then, that the polling shows most people in metro areas – those who would most benefit from 50¢ fares, for example – think Miles has done a good job as leader. Indeed, 55 per cent of them say his performance has been good to very good.

In the rest of Queensland, only 39 per cent of voters gave Miles their tick of approval. That’s potentially bad news for the 17 Labor members outside the greater Brisbane metropolitan area.

And potentially bad news for the Miles Labor government, given the LNP needs to gain just 12 seats for an outright majority.

The latest Resolve poll has highlighted what has been assumed knowledge – Miles faces an uphill battle to win the regions over, even as the shifts in his overall popularity and Labor’s primary vote shows their campaign has successfully (though not decisively) pushed the needle in the government’s favour.

And while Miles has been on a mission to sandbag Labor seats in the regions – in just one day last week, he visited Mackay, Townsville and Cairns – many of his policy promises have been firmly aimed at young urban voters, who have been turning to the Greens in increasingly consequential numbers.

Queensland is Australia’s most decentralised state and Labor strategists know they can’t win in the south-east alone. And LNP strategists know the regions give them their easiest path to victory.

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Original URL: https://www.watoday.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p5kjyr