Housing is a tenure-defining policy for Jacinta Allan, if she can make it stick

Jacinta Allan’s first year as premier was characterised by backflips – the wash-up from the cancelled Commonwealth Games, a second safe injecting room, health mergers and raising the age of criminal responsibility to 14.

Despite signalling a desire to build on former premier Daniel Andrews’ “strong reform agenda”, so far, Allan has been in a race against the electoral clock to come up with any era-defining policies.

Camberwell is one area that’s been earmarked as an activity centre to add thousands more homes.Credit: Wayne Taylor

Until now.

Labor has begun unveiling a bold housing vision for Victoria, beginning with the announcement of more than 50 activity centres where the government plans to boost housing density close to transport connections.

Meaningful policy reform requires three ingredients: a problem, a solution, and – most importantly – the political will to do it.

In this case, the problem is clear. Melbourne is a growing city, but remains one of the least densely settled in the world. Its outer fringes are groaning under the weight of suburban sprawl, driving up infrastructure costs for taxpayers and pushing families – and young children – to congregate on the city’s fringes.

Premier Jacinta Allan at Sunday’s housing announcement.Credit: Kieran Rooney

More broadly, this has led to a housing shortage in established suburbs, which is driving up prices and leading to a collapse in the fertility rate.

The Allan government’s solution is to encourage multi-storey developments – up to 20 storeys high – to boost population density in 50 activity centres including Oakleigh, Hampton, Armadale, West Footscray and Mitcham.

The theory goes that a decentralised city would mean shorter commutes and more housing options for young buyers and renters who are currently locked out of the market.

While this policy represents an opportunity for Allan to define herself as more than Andrews 2.0, it would be premature to crack open the champagne just yet.

Bayside residents outside the premier’s press conference on Sunday.Credit: Kieran Rooney

For this to become one of Allan’s defining policy success stories, she will have to communicate to voters that the current policy of urban sprawl isn’t working. She will also have to stay the course, despite a backlash from the Coalition, older voters, and councils which will be stripped of their planning powers.

Allan will have until election day to prove that these projects will enhance existing suburbs, make home ownership more attainable and breathe fresh life into the suburbs.

This won’t be easy. Building houses is slow, the government is already expected to struggle to achieve its promised 80,000 homes-a-year target.

Until recently, Victorian Labor could also bank on the opposition to botch its attack on significant policies. But the Coalition is so far holding it together in the face of instability, and has rocketed ahead by 10 percentage points in the polls.

The Coalition is also showing its willingness to be wooed by the NIMBY vote, even if doing so means they are left with a housing policy headache should they ever win office.

Allan needed a tenure-defining policy and a reason for voters to stick with Labor after a decade in power.

This could be it, but it will require the government to show perseverance, responsibility and a willingness to engage in a rational debate about the choices confronting Melbourne’s future.

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