Destination Geelong: Smith requests trade as Cats also circle Oliver

How does Geelong do it? That is a question widely asked in earnest, and in exasperation, at the moment.

Practically, how could they possibly trade in two elite midfielders, Bailey Smith (who requested a trade to the Cats after he made the worst-kept secret official on Wednesday) and Clayton Oliver, and land them in this trade period? Secondly, how does Geelong keep getting these players? How do they fit them all in the salary cap?

Clayton Oliver and Bailey Smith could yet end up as teammates in Geelong.Credit: AFL Photos

The first question is the most pressing. Smith’s trade will happen because he is out of contract.

Oliver is more difficult. He is on a long-term contract so the discussions between the player and Cats football hierarchy and senior players at Rhys Stanley’s farm on Tuesday night were all predicated on a “what if” scenario.

Smith is the priority for Geelong. There will be arguments about the trade and whether Geelong’s first-round pick is sufficient, but that pick will be the basis for any deal. The question will only be whether Geelong adds to that pick, currently 15, and if so, what do they add?

Last year Esava Ratugolea was traded to Port for, essentially, pick 25. Geelong’s pick is now at 15, though the Dogs will argue it will blow out to about 20 when academy and father-son picks are taken into account. And they’ll point to the size of the contract offer to the player the Cats have been into for two years. The Cats will say Smith is also coming off an ACL.

Despite the recent meeting between Oliver and the Cats, Oliver has not yet officially asked Melbourne for a trade. Not yet at least.

If Melbourne continue to hold firm on the fact Oliver will not be traded, then it’s unlikely to happen regardless of what Oliver wants to do.

You cannot force a club to trade any contracted player, let alone one with six more years on a contract worth well over $1 million a year.

The club has for months been saying they have seen a significant turnaround in Oliver’s behaviour, only to then have the CEO once more talking to other clubs about a trade.

It doesn’t matter whether the decision to put his name out there had unanimous support at the club (the fact they wanted to shut down the trade discussion would suggest it was not a unanimous decision). The fact is the player will feel unwanted, given the same thing happened 12 months ago. How reasonable is it for him to be expected to walk back into the club?

The question now is whether Melbourne, having sought to shut down the trade talk, would be open to trading Oliver if the request came from him to them, rather than the Dees being the ones driving it.

There would be some at the club thinking they should cut their losses, take the big contract off the books and be seen to be tough on standards and changing culture without worrying too much about the trade return.

There’d be others – especially you would suspect in the coaching ranks– saying, “hang on, you want to what? Trade one of the best midfielders in the comp? No”.

In the event Oliver asked for a trade and Melbourne were prepared to countenance it, they would feel like they could argue they were not the party driving it, so Geelong would need to offer something to turn their heads.

The answer to that would be, “your heads were already turned, you have offered him up twice in 12 months, we are helping you out”.

So that leaves Melbourne with a decision. Do we want to be here again in 12 months’ time, kicking more tyres about a trade? Do we want to cut our losses and move on with money in the cap? Or do we say it was all the standard idle chat that happens at this time of year that has caught fire beyond anything we wanted or expected, and just hose it down?

The ball is largely in Melbourne’s court, partly in Oliver’s. Geelong are bystanders.

But why Geelong? For both Oliver and Smith, the prospect of getting out of Melbourne to a club with a culture of success and proximity to another flag would appeal.

The choice of Rhys Stanley’s farm for the chat with Oliver on Tuesday night was most likely convenient because it was where senior players like Tom Stewart were, as Sam McClure reported. But it might have had an extra appeal. Oliver grew up in northern Victoria, and sitting on a farm, being reminded you can have footy and escape the Melbourne maelstrom was no doubt a beneficent byproduct.

The Cats have that unique country, surf coast lifestyle that is an edge to discussions with a range of players. Bailey Smith’s long association with Geelong’s key sponsor Cotton On no doubt put him and the club under each other’s noses. Like Oliver, the idea of escaping Melbourne where Smith is one of the most sought after football brands – a fact that has played some part in his acknowledged mental health issues – would have an appeal.

How Geelong, again a top-four finisher, could fit both players in the salary cap is another matter. Despite having a few retirees they will not be flush for space in the cap. But they also know they will have more space opening up in coming years, with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield nearing retirement age, so they can stagger the new contracts to find space.

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