Trump-Harris gender gap could be gender chasm by November

Erick Erickson was furious. The American conservative talk show host had just watched Donald Trump give an interview to NBC suggesting he was about to soften his stance on abortion.

Asked about the Florida ballot measure, which could overturn a ban preventing women from terminating a pregnancy after six weeks and establish a right to abortion in that state, Trump acknowledged the six-week restriction was “too short”.

“We need more than six weeks,” the Republican candidate said when pressed on how he would be voting as a local Floridian when the “Right to Abortion Initiative” is on the ballot later this year.

The backlash from Trump’s conservative base was swift and blunt.

“I have never – and I will never – vote for a candidate who supports abortion rights, and Donald Trump came very close to sounding like he does yesterday,” Erickson lamented on his popular program the day after seeing the former president’s remarks.

“And if he loses [the election] in November, yesterday – August 29 in the year of our Lord 2024 – will be the day he lost if he doesn’t do some damage control pretty quickly.”

Trump did indeed do some damage control, walking back his comments and declaring within 24 hours that he would not vote to overturn the six-week ban after all and would instead stick to the status quo.

However, the dramatic U-turn was not only emblematic of the balancing act he faces when it comes to reproductive rights but also of a much deeper challenge confronting Trump as he seeks another term in the White House: his growing unpopularity among women.

A “Reproductive Freedom Bus” leaves after the kick-off of the Harris-Walz campaign’s reproductive rights bus tour in Boynton Beach, Florida, on Tuesday.Credit: Bloomberg

Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men at every US presidential election since 1980. Now, they’re leaning heavily towards Kamala Harris, the 59-year-old prosecutor-turned-politician who could end up being the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.

“There are 94 million mom voters in America alone, and they want the freedom to be able to go to work and have kids in safe, enriching places; the freedom to be able to make ends meet by receiving fair pay; the freedom to be able to decide if we’re having children and if so, when and how many,” says Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner, who runs the grassroots group MomsRising, which has worked to mobilise families in key battlegrounds.

“We’re on the precipice of a big decision on November 5, and I suspect we will vote with an eye to the future.”

While the overall race remains too close to call, polls suggest that Trump’s support among women is deteriorating. An ABC/Ipsos poll released this week, for example, found that Harris now leads her Republican rival by 13 points among this key demographic – a seven-point jump since she accepted the nomination at the Democratic National Convention – with 54 per cent of women supporting her compared with 41 per cent backing Trump.

Trump is also losing his edge among white women – the very group that helped propel him to office in 2016, particularly in the Midwest battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

According to the poll, Trump – who still rates better than Harris among men – had a 13-point advantage among white women before the convention last month; now, that advantage has dropped to a mere two points.

So what’s behind the shift, and could this crucial demographic hold the key to the 2024 election?

Veteran political analyst Larry Sabato says polls are only ever a snapshot in time. As a cautionary tale, he cites Hillary Clinton – who led Trump by an 18-point margin among women at this stage of the cycle in 2016 and still went on to lose the election that year.

But he adds that there’s no doubt that Harris’ support is higher overall than President Joe Biden’s, driven partly by the fact the vice president offers voters a fresh choice and has been able to define herself as a capable candidate who will champion their freedoms and fight for the middle class. While many Americans are still getting to know her, some clearly like what they see.

Trump, on the other hand, has long symbolised a kind of machismo that many women find off-putting. He has bragged about grabbing women’s genitals; he was found liable for sexual assault; he covered up an affair with a porn star that could have derailed his chances of becoming president.

But while his history and character were not as much of a liability against Biden, an 81-year-old president who most Americans viewed as too old for another term, it’s less palatable against Harris.

“He’s the political Hugh Hefner,” Sabato says, referencing the founder of the Playboy magazine empire that became synonymous with scantily clad models, parties and mansions.

The cover of the March 1990 magazine featured Donald Trump, who some have branded a political version of the magazine’s founder Hugh Hefner.

“That image may have sold in the ’70s, ’80s, and even the ’90s with [then-Democrat president] Bill Clinton, but it’s as old as the hills now. So Trump often looks out of touch, and it’s hurting him because he can’t adapt.”

There’s no doubt Trump has struggled to recalibrate ever since Biden announced on July 21 that he would withdraw his campaign for re-election and immediately endorsed his vice president as his preferred nominee.

After attacking Harris on everything from the way she laughs to her racial identity, the 78-year-old Republican has tried in recent days to focus more on policy. He’s accused her of flip-flopping on issues such as immigration and fracking; he’s claimed her economic policies will push up the national debt even further; and he has sought to tie her to the “failings” of the Biden administration. Some voters wholeheartedly agree.

“If she wins the election, we are doomed,” says Kim Clark, who lives in the swing state of Georgia, where she works both as an Uber driver and a house cleaner so she can “afford to have food”.

“Trump is a businessman – he knows what he’s doing. Our economy was better than it had been in a long time with him, our border was secure, and we didn’t have all these wars. Harris has no idea.”

The problem for Trump is that many of his attacks don’t appear to be sticking – at least not enough to dent the momentum Harris has garnered among the Democratic base and some independent voters who were not enthused by the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch.

Now, the enthusiasm among left-leaning voters is palpable. It was evident in Pennsylvania last month when Harris conducted her first joint rally with running mate Tim Walz. Thousands of jubilant people lined up hours before the event was due to begin.

“We are going to elect our first woman president!” declared Philadelphia resident Gail Vladimir, who attended the event with her husband, Lary.

Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton addresses the Democratic National Convention last month.Credit: AP

It was evident, too, at last month’s Democratic National Convention, where thousands of women wore white – the universal colour of female empowerment – to watch Harris formally accept her nomination.

“We are so close to breaking through once and for all,” Hillary Clinton said during her speech on the first night of the event, conjuring up the image of Harris raising her hand “on the other side of that glass ceiling” to take the presidential oath of office.

And it was evident in Georgia last week, where Harris and Walz embarked on a two-day bus tour targeting traditionally conservative areas in a bid to boost their votes outside left-leaning metropolitan areas such as Atlanta.

Kamala Harris (centre) during a campaign event in Savannah, Georgia last month.Credit: Bloomberg

At a rally in Savannah, some women wore T-shirts emblazoned with the words “Childless Cat Ladies for Harris” – a reference to the derisive comment Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, made in 2021 about “miserable” Democrats like Harris. Others chanted and cheered: “We’re not going back! We’re not going back!”

The Trump campaign, for its part, has tried to dent Harris’ momentum with a series of populist, female-friendly initiatives. The Republican candidate has supported expanding the child tax credit, which currently gives families $2000 per child. He has also vowed to eliminate taxes on tips, which would help hospitality and service industry workers, the bulk of whom are female.

And last week, on the same day he raised concerns about Florida’s six-week abortion ban, Trump also announced he would provide in-vitro fertilisation coverage for all Americans, whether by mandating that insurance companies cover it or funding it directly with taxpayer money.

Such a policy would obviously be welcomed by people desperate to have a baby, given the cost of IVF – at more than $US40,000 (nearly $60,000) a round – puts it out of reach for many.

Trump provided no details about how the plan would be implemented and omitted the fact Senate Republicans – including Vance – recently voted to block a bill that would have protected IVF and mandated insurance cover for it.

“Actions speak louder than words,” says Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner.

So, will women determine who wins the White House this year? According to strategists on both sides, that depends on whether Trump can perform sufficiently well among men to overcome the deficit he faces among women.

Otherwise, the traditional gender gap could become a gender chasm – and one that delivers America’s first female president.

Back in Georgia, women such as Savannah resident Krystal Jones are optimistic.

“With Barack Obama, I voted, and I was excited – but with Kamala Harris, I’m like, ‘What is it that I have to do to make sure she gets over the line?’” she says.

“So I’ve donated money, I’ve volunteered to drive people to vote on election day, and I’m registering people to vote as well. She’s doing her job – so now it’s up to us to follow through.”

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