By Jake Niall
Unless there is an unexpected twist, or the trade founders on the rocks of recalcitrance, Bailey Smith will be moving down the Geelong Road to play for the Cats in 2025.
Smith had been courted by Hawthorn, and there was still a possibility – however slim – that he would stick with the Western Bulldogs. But a series of factors – the pecking order at the Bulldogs, Smith’s knee injury and Hawthorn’s choices – mean that one of the AFL’s most followed footballers is all but certain to be running around with Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Stewart from next year.
Bailey Smith will be on the move to Geelong in the off-season.Credit: Getty Images
Geelong need Smith more than Hawthorn or the Bulldogs and, as a team with a track record of successfully handling players with complex off-field issues – while winning games – they are not a difficult sell to Smith or his management.
Smith’s likely landing at Geelong has been touted for some weeks and this column can confirm, based on conversations with well-placed sources who don’t want to say anything until the dealing’s done, that “Bazlenka” (his social media moniker) is Geelong-bound, unless something goes badly awry.
Why Geelong, who have 11 players aged 30 or more, and not the mighty rising Hawks, or the more talented team that gave him his career start?
Smith’s choice rests on a few key considerations.
Smith hasn’t played this season as he recovers from a serious knee injury.Credit: AFL Photos
One is that he wants to play as a frontline midfielder, rather than as a wing or high half-forward. Geelong will afford him that opportunity, given that Dangerfield is 34, Joel Selwood is gone, Mitch Duncan 33, Cam Guthrie 32, and Smith can act as a bridge between those in the career twilight zones and the kids the Cats have drafted.
Another factor is that Smith’s pre-season anterior cruciate ligament injury deprived him of playing time in the Dogs’ midfield this year. Smith had been behind Marcus Bontempelli (like every other AFL midfielder), Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore, and the latter pair have less capacity to play other roles than Smith.
When Liberatore went down with injury, Luke Beveridge threw Ed Richards into the centre square, and we soon learned that Richards, too, is an adept midfielder, who also added speed to a group that could be one-paced.
Had Smith not suffered the ACL injury, he might well have signed a two-year deal that took him to free agency. Or a longer term.
The Bulldogs have handled the Smith situation with maturity. They recognise he’s likely leaving and haven’t pressured or let it become a distraction in a season in which they’ve recovered and gained late-season momentum.
Hawthorn, in the meantime, have West Coast’s key defender Tom Barrass on the hook and will be forced to give up their first pick to consummate that trade. Josh Battle, a free agent tall back, also has been weighing up whether to stay at the Saints or join the Hawks.
Clubs have only so much draft capital and the Hawks have a more immediate need for a key defender than a zippy midfielder. So their choice, too, has probably influenced the influencer’s.
Smith also is an ambassador for the clothing retail giant Cotton On, which is an important Geelong sponsor and Geelong institution. Their relationship long pre-dates his interest in the Cats.
Arguably, the most compelling argument for joining Geelong, though, is that Smith will be joining a club that has many of the benefits of playing on Broadway – big, high-vis games – without as many of the potential pitfalls of crossing the Maribyrnong to join a monstrous Melbourne team.
Smith’s self-acknowledged mental health challenges, combined with his massive social media following – and his injury – places a premium on the environment of his next club.
Geelong, by dint of Chris Scott’s pragmatic approach and the self-regulation among the players, is not a club prone to overreact or get too stressed about players who find strife or have public issues.
Tyson Stengle’s admission to a Geelong hospital, after being discovered non-responsive at a nightclub some weeks ago, is an example of how the Cats avoid thermonuclear reactions. The club offered minimal details about the incident, eschewing a hardline disciplinary posture. When questioned about the Stengle incident, Scott said it was an error by the forward, but the Cats treat the players “as adults” and that his health was paramount.
It’s unclear whether Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon or beleaguered Melbourne could get away with calmly fending off the fourth estate as the Cats did. The Melbourne media is less excited by everything west of Werribee.
Geelong tend to protect the player, rather than adopting the path of righteous posturing and putting out statements about standards and so forth.
Bailey Smith, thus, will have to worry less about public consequences than how he wins respect and trust within the walls of Geelong; he will have no shortage of support and care from senior players and his coach.
Geelong will have a pretty late first-round pick, which is less than Smith would have fetched in 2021 after a pair of superb finals performances (v the Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide), but should be the basis for a trade, bearing in mind that he is out of contract and is recovering from an ACL. In this particular draft, recruiters say it will be possible to land as good a player at pick 18 as pick eight.
Hopefully, Smith – whose devotion to self-improvement and training was, if anything, excessive in his formative seasons – can thrive in the relaxed professionalism of Geelong. He is a risk well worth taking.
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