Kamala Harris is ascendant, but these minefields could deny her victory

At the Democratic convention in Chicago, the empire is ready to strike back at Darth Vader. There has never been an array of galactic political power like that assembled for presidential nominee Kamala Harris: three presidents – Joe Biden, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama – and Hillary Clinton, the first woman nominated for president by a major political party, who won the popular vote in 2016 but was defeated by Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Trump, at the pinnacle, is alone. Ronald Reagan is long dead. Trump piled Reagan’s legacy on the dustbin of history. Neither the last Republican president, George Bush, nor Trump’s vice president, Mike Pence, appeared at Trump’s convention. Trump’s Republican opponents have been turned into sycophants. Trump is counting on his base – 72 million-strong four years ago – to turn out again and stop Harris’ amazing rise over these past four weeks.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris on Friday.Credit: AP

Harris is leading Trump in the head-to-head national vote polls. She has pulled ahead or is fully competitive with Trump in virtually all the swing states that will decide the election. Trump has Elon Musk onside, but Kamala is killing it on X, Tik Tok and Zoom. The ultra-short 100-day campaign gives her a tactical advantage in controlling her image – she is projecting the politics of joy and exuberance – in contrast to Trump’s eight years on the national stage. Harris is much fresher, more fluid and younger compared with Trump’s old age and scowling, lumbering presence.

So what does Harris need to do to win from here?

In her acceptance speech at the convention, Harris has to proclaim her vision for the country, how she will govern for all the American people on the issues they care about, and define what is at stake in this election. Harris needs to call an end to the Trump era of division and retribution. She needs to be the defender-in-chief of America’s democracy and the rights for all citizens, especially regarding abortion, gun violence and voting. Harris needs to appeal not only to her base but to those in Trump’s camp who will be listening to her give that speech. Indeed, to get them, Harris is now advertising on Fox News.

In their upcoming September debate, Harris needs to counter Trump’s instinct to monster her off the stage, to slice Trump like sashimi. She must execute what Biden failed to do: take Trump down by showing the American people that the emperor has no clothes, that he is far too extreme in his policies. Harris has to wield all her prosecutorial skills to prove in the court of public opinion, once and for all, that Trump is unfit to return to the presidency. This is key to her securing that verdict in November.

The issue that wins or loses elections is still what Bill Clinton’s field marshals proclaimed in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” The macro-economic performance – the US does have, under Biden’s leadership, the strongest economy in the world – means little at the ballot box. The lived experience of Americans today, as it is in Australia, is of prices 20 to 40 per cent higher than when Biden and Harris took office, with interest rates the highest in over 30 years.

Harris needs the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its September meeting. Such a decisive step would give voters hope as they look ahead that cost-of-living pressures would moderate under “President Harris”.

If these three issues are navigated successfully, Harris will have by mid-September a clear and convincing road to victory in November.

But there are land mines. Harris needs the Middle East to stay clear of a regional war that expands to Lebanon and Iran. Israel’s war in Gaza is the most divisive issue in the Democratic Party today, and it is sorely testing enthusiasm among Arab and Muslim Americans and progressive Democrats to vote for Harris. We will see large protests on the convention floor and in the streets of Chicago.

Biden is pressing relentlessly for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages. If a ceasefire is reached, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon may turn back from the brink of retaliating for Israel’s assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

If this fails, and the war expands, there will be a significant political toll exacted on Biden and Harris. Biden claims mastery for his management of foreign policy. Failure to close out the fighting and brutality in Gaza will hurt Harris no less than Biden, with Trump pouring scorn on this turn for the worse.

Trump holds very big cards. Over 70 per cent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is a classic signal for change at the top. Trump is viewed as more capable on the two biggest hot-button issues: the economy and immigration. Harris has not yet recovered all the support Trump has been getting this year from Black and Hispanic voters.

But Harris does have some surprise chess moves to make. North Carolina may come into play thanks to an extremist Republican running for governor. Florida will also vote on whether to end that state’s ban on abortions after six weeks. Can Florida voters restore abortion rights for millions of women and also vote for the man who took them away?

Harris understands what she needs to do to win. Will America turn the page with her? Or does America live the next chapter of Trump’s life?

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.