With power in the balance, Allan is facing a youth crime headache

All governments expect a midterm dip in the polls but after 10 years in power the dip facing Labor in Victoria is a little deeper and harder to climb out of than previous drops in support.

To make matters worse, the government is skint and has faced months of pressure to address major policy headaches in health and youth crime.

Premier Jacinta Allan is under pressure to address unresolved policy woesCredit: Justin McManus

A growing number of Labor MPs have noticed the danger signs and are worried, particularly those in marginal Melbourne seats. It doesn’t help that many of those seats overlap with areas experiencing some of the biggest spikes in youth crime across the state.

It may not be the only issue weighing down the government, but a growing number of MPs fear that if concerns about crime aren’t addressed, it could cost Labor government in 2026.

Problematically for Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes, this nervousness is driving a renewed push from within Labor for cabinet to walk away from its pledge to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14 in 2027.

The government is yet to legislate the change but has repeatedly committed to it, despite a recent survey by Resolve finding that the 57 per cent of voters oppose moves to make any changes to the age of criminal responsibility. Even Labor’s own supporters are lukewarm on the reform with just 35 per cent in favour of the shift.

Regardless, most advocates in favour of raising the age of criminal responsibility rightly argue that the reform would actually have little impact on the current crime wave in Victoria. Recent statistics showed that kids aged 14 to 17 were responsible for 18,729 criminal incidents last year – that age group’s highest rate of offending since 2009.

Dumping the change would send a signal to the electorate. And politicians are never ones to let a good crisis go to waste.

In private, MPs admit the issue of youth crime was the hottest topic in Torquay last month when Labor met for a caucus conference with MPs giving emotional pleas – both those who favour a tougher lock-them-up approach, and those who believe the current justice bill has got the balance right.

That bill raises the age of criminal responsibility to 12 and allows for repeat offenders to be fitted with electronic monitoring ankle bracelets, while giving police the option of using more warnings, cautions and early diversions before charging young offenders.

But even proponents of the bill acknowledge that the current community debate – fuelled by a wave of crimes committed by teens, including those on bail – is rattling community confidence and could do with some clarification and clearer communication on what is being done to tackle the issue.

Youth crime is now expected to dominate Monday’s cabinet meeting where Symes and her supporters will be forced to defend the current legislation and fend off a push for Labor to walk away from its commitment to raising the age to 14 for criminal responsibility

They are expected to argue that any impulse policy shift would produce poorer outcomes for young offenders and the community down the track, even if electorally palatable now.

Even after booting a few of its MPs to the crossbench, the Allan government still holds 54 of the 88 lower house seats, compared to the opposition, which has just 28.

Number crunchers believe that even on current polling – which has the Coalition 10 points clear of Labor when it comes to primary support – the major parties would finish neck-and-neck on a two-party-preferred basis and Labor would be expected to cling in power, even in minority.

Little comfort to the MPs who fear the government’s delay in addressing the youth crime issue that will continue to haunt it into 2025.

While the issue remains unresolved, Labor MPs are patting themselves on the back after retreating from a plan to merge the state’s health services and enforce stricter budgets.

On Thursday, after months of bleeding on the issue, Labor finally resolved to do very little on reforming the state’s hospital network, effectively avoiding a fight by allowing existing hospitals to retain their independent boards and branding.

Instead, Labor announced another review in three years time – conveniently just after the next election – preventing a war with local communities ahead of polling day.

As far as a policy solution, it was neither financially beneficial to the government nor bold and will force the Treasury to find a billion dollars in savings ahead of December’s mid-year budget update.

But if the aim of the announcement was to stem the bleeding, that’s precisely what it will do.

The Allan government may struggle to replicate such a harmonious solution to its youth justice woes on Monday.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.