By Malcolm Conn
Asked to explain why the Swans have tumbled from premiership favourites to crisis point, Paul Roos points to one set of numbers.
The Swans’ 2005 premiership coach, Roos was speaking in the aftermath of Saturday night’s 112-point flogging by Port Adelaide, the Swans’ fifth loss in six matches and their worst defeat since 1993.
“The contested ball numbers were just smashed on the weekend, which is un-Swans like,” Roos told this masthead.
“I’ve coached in those games, and there’s nothing you can do because there’s just not the effort and there’s a lack of running, which have been the Swans’ strengths.
“If you boil that game down to basic principles, it’s win a contest and run. And if you’re not doing either of those, you’re going to get smashed.”
Port Adelaide had 81 more contested possessions during a horror show in which saw the Swans did not win their first disposal inside 50 metres until after the 17-minute mark of the second term, by which time Port Adelaide had 71 points on the board.
Roos now lives in Los Angeles but follows AFL on a local channel and is in Melbourne for a fortnight with his leadership company before flying to Sydney for Friday night’s Swans-Collingwood match, which the Swans must win to stay top of the ladder.
Should they fail to overcome the Magpies before what shapes as an SCG sellout crowd, and the Brisbane Lions beat the GWS Giants at the Gabba on Saturday, the Lions will go top. This after Sydney were three wins and a large percentage clear after beating the Giants six weeks ago.
Last year’s grand finalists, Brisbane won just four of their first 11 matches and have now won nine in a row, including a two-point victory over a battered Sydney a fortnight ago.
While injuries have hurt the Swans, including the loss of livewire small forward Tom Papley, classy wingman Justin McInerney and key defenders Dane Rampe and Lewis Melican, Roos believes the problem goes deeper.
Tom Papley is helped from the Gabba after suffering an ankle injury a fortnight ago.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
After 15 rounds, John Longmire’s side were in the top three in eight of Champion Data’s ten key attacking markers, led five of seven defensive statistics and were in positive territory with all five KPIs: disposals, contested possessions, uncontested possessions, inside 50 metres and tackles. Since round 16, only tackles remain positive.
The worst falloff in attack has been their turnover scoring differential, which has gone from 21.7 to -20 and in which the Swans have fallen from first to 17th in the league. In accuracy at goal, the Swans have fallen from second to 15th. In defence, their ranking for turnovers scored against has also plunged from first to 17th.
All important contested possessions have also seen a positive ranking tumble to 17th.
With raw key forwards Joel Amartey and Logan McDonald struggling to make a regular impact the Swans have relied heavily on their midfielders to kick goals and that has dried up.
Paul Roos, right, coaching the Swans in 2010 with current coach John Longmire his assistant.Credit: Sebastian Costanzo
Recent Brownlow Medal favourite Isaac Heeney was goalless just once in his first 13 games but has drawn a blank in four of his last six matches. His score involvements have also dried up, a consequence of finding less of the ball. He had a season-low 17 disposals on the weekend.
Two games ago, when the Swans lost to the Western Bulldogs by 39 points, Heeney’s fellow midfield star Chad Warner had a season-low 11 possessions, followed by 19 last Saturday – just the third time this season he has managed fewer than 20 possessions.
Warner has had just two score involvements in his last two games and has gone goalless in back-to-back matches for the first time this year.
In the past six games, Heeney has kicked three goals and Warner has booted five. This compares to Heeney kicking 21 goals in the first 13 games, while Warner had 24 in the same period.
“As a coach, you try and put things into context so it’s probably more trends you’re looking at,” Roos said, pointing to a topsy-turvy season which has seen teams drag themselves out of slumps.
“I think that gives every coach a bit of confidence that things can turn around, but then you’re looking at trends, that’s a concern for John.”
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