Israel and Hezbollah fire at each other amid fears of wider Middle East war

Israel and Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah said they had fired at targets in the other’s territory, as Canada told its citizens to avoid all travel to Israel amid fears that the region was on the brink of a wider war.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday reiterated calls for Australians in Lebanon to return home while “commercial flights are available”, saying it is a “very volatile situation in the Middle East”.

The Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept an attack from Lebanon over the Galilee region as seen from the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on Sunday.Credit: AP

The Canadian government raised its travel warning to the highest level, telling its citizens to avoid all travel to Israel. It advised that “the security situation can deteriorate further without warning”. There was no immediate change to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade advice for Australians travelling to Israel. It recommends travellers reconsider their need to visit the country and avoid travel to specific areas.

Hezbollah launched dozens of Katyusha rockets at the northern Israeli settlement of Beit Hillel, with no reports of any casualties. Photos show Israel’s Iron Dome aerial defence system intercepting rockets.

That attack was reportedly in response to Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

The attacks came as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard repeated a call for retaliation against Israel after the killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran.

In a televised statement, the Guard said a short-range projectile was behind the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, and accused the United States of supporting the attack it blamed on Israel. It said a rocket with a seven-kilogram warhead was used to carry out the attack adding it caused heavy damage.

“The action was designed and carried out by the Zionist regime and supported by the US,” the Guard said. “The warmongering and terrorist Zionist regime will receive harsh punishment in the suitable time, place, and capacity.”

Israel has not confirmed or denied its role in the killing of Haniyeh, but had earlier pledged to kill him and other Hamas leaders over the group’s October 7 attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza.

The conflict in the Middle East has now entered a new phase in the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination. The day before, an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, a senior military commander from Hezbollah.

How high are the risks of a full-blown regional war?

US President Joe Biden expressed hope on Sunday (AEST) that Iran would stand down despite its threat to avenge the assassination.

Hezbollah fighters stand behind the coffin of their top commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed last week by an Israeli air strike.Credit: AP

The deaths have increased the risk of a dangerous escalation in Israel’s Gaza war and of a regional conflagration pitting Israel against Iran and its proxies. Officials and analysts in the region said the assassination indicated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to shift the war’s rules of engagement, moving beyond Gaza to directly eliminate Hamas leaders and strike proxies of Iran elsewhere.

The attack is seen by analysts and officials as one of Israel’s biggest blows yet to Iran and its allies. They said the timing and location were also chosen to embarrass Tehran, which was hosting Haniyeh and other regional dignitaries at the inauguration of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

In response to a shouted question by reporters as to whether Iran would stand down, Biden said: “I hope so. I don’t know.”

An Israeli tank near a border crossing to the southern Gaza Strip.Credit: Bloomberg

Seeking to bolster defences in the Middle East in response to threats from Israel’s foes, the Pentagon said it would deploy additional fighter jets and warships to the region. The US and international partners including France, Britain, Italy and Egypt continued diplomatic contacts, seeking to prevent further regional escalation.

Two Iranian sources said that Haniyeh’s killing sent shockwaves through Iran’s top leadership, who are now deeply concerned that their security forces were infiltrated by Israel. There is also growing anxiety about their arch-foe’s ability to reach and assassinate high-ranking Iranian officials.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said avenging the killing was Iran’s “duty” as it occurred in the Iranian capital. Israel had provided the grounds for harsh punishment for itself, he said.

The killing confronts Pezeshkian with his first major crisis. Iran has adopted a dual policy of avoiding direct engagement in full-scale war while backing militant groups that have been firing at Israel from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.

Hossein Alai, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, told Iran’s Jamaran website, without citing evidence: “The United States definitely had close cooperation with Israel in both operational and intelligence aspect in the plan to assassinate Haniyeh.

“By carrying out this assassination, Israel wanted to show Palestinian groups that there is no safe place for them to live and be present anywhere in the world ... it was also a message to Pezeshkian that we will not allow changes in Iran and its establishment of good relations with the world.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was not involved in Haniyeh’s killing.

What are Iran’s options for retaliation?

Iran has several options for retaliation, but analysts, officials and militant leaders say all carry risks of escalation.

Hundreds of Iranians took part in a protest in Palestine Square, Tehran, against the killing of Ismail Haniyeh.Credit: Getty Images

It could respond by launching drones and missiles in a retaliatory strike on Israel, similar to the attack it launched after Israel targeted its embassy compound in Damascus in April, killing seven senior military commanders.

Israel then retaliated with a calibrated attack on Iranian territory that did not kill anyone.

Workers in Tehran install a banner depicting Haniyeh.Credit: AP

Iran could also assassinate Israeli diplomats or officials or attack Israeli missions overseas.

Tehran may opt to retaliate via armed proxies, including Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s Shiite militias, which could step up their attacks against Israel and US interests in the region.

“This Israeli attack on Haniyeh is embarrassing for Iran,” said Adeeb Ziadeh, an expert in international affairs at Qatar University who has studied Hamas. “It is a strike at the heart of Iranian leadership; it is a strike at the security and intelligence establishment.”

Iran would have to respond to make up for what was a major security shortcoming, Ziadeh said. “This is a powerful and harsh hit to Iran.”

What does this mean for Hezbollah?

The attack on Shukr compounded the risks of escalation in the conflict between heavily armed Hezbollah and Israel, which have been exchanging fire in a largely contained confrontation since the Gaza war erupted in October.

Analysts say Hezbollah will be compelled to retaliate with a response that reflects Shukr’s standing as Hezbollah’s top military commander but also takes account of the fact that Israel struck him in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (centre) walks with Israeli forces during a surprise visit to Rafah, Gaza, last month.Credit: AP

Hezbollah could attack areas of Israel it has not yet hit in the current conflict, including urban centres, risking a spiral of retaliation and counter-retaliation.

Who succeeds Haniyeh and what does it mean for Hamas?

The most likely successor is Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials said. Under Meshaal, Hamas has emerged as an ever more important player in the Middle East conflict due to his charisma, popularity and regional standing, analysts said.

Protesters urging a hostage deal rally against the Netanyahu government in Tel Aviv in June.Credit: Getty Images

Meshaal narrowly survived an assassination attempt ordered by Netanyahu in 1997.

Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya is also a possibility as he is a favourite of Tehran and its regional allies, the analysts said. Meshaal’s relations with Iran have been strained due to his support of the Sunni-led 2011 Syrian revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli cities, will remain the commander in Gaza.

What now for Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks?

The killing of Haniyeh, a crucial interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations, has ended any chance of an imminent agreement, Hamas sources and analysts initially said.

Despite this, ceasefire discussions on Gaza have continued, with an Israel delegation led by the Mossad chief briefly visiting Cairo. The US has urged Israel to seize the chance for a ceasefire.

What next for Netanyahu and his coalition?

Netanyahu’s government was silent on Haniyeh’s killing, although some hardline ministers not connected with defence and foreign policy posted celebratory messages on social media.

The government has faced rifts over issues including the conduct of the Gaza war, with hardline religious nationalist parties pressing the military for tougher action.

But ministers have been united on the need to destroy Hamas. Opposition leader Yair Lapid welcomed Haniyeh’s killing, while social media carried images of Israelis celebrating.

“Netanyahu will have, at least for a moment, what he wants: becoming the flag around which Israelis rally. And his coalition will certainly not turn against him,” said Uriel Abulof, an associate professor at Tel Aviv University’s School of Political Science, Government and International Affairs.

Families of hostages in Gaza, who have led protests pushing for a deal to halt the fighting, said true security depended on the release of all remaining 115 hostages and urged Netanyahu to accept a deal.

What are the implications for Biden’s Middle East goals?

The escalation will add to the many obstacles already facing Biden’s ambitious diplomatic gamble to end the Gaza war, provide a path to Palestinian statehood with security for Israel and secure a US-Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal. The killing may leave the Biden administration scrambling to limit the fallout rather than reshaping the region in its final months.

A Western diplomat said the situation could be read either as Israel trying to drag the US into a regional war or as Netanyahu wanting a win to sell to Israelis. But a strong response to Haniyeh’s death could bring strong retaliation by Israel, triggering “a vicious cycle and all hell breaks loose”.

Reuters

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