Voters swing to Dutton in new sign of angst over economy

Voters have lifted the Coalition to another high in core support after months of steady gains for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, as 55 per cent of Australians say they expect the national outlook to worsen.

The Coalition has increased its primary vote from 36 to 38 per cent over the past month, while core support for Labor has been steady at just 28 per cent – its lowest level since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took power at the last election.

Peter Dutton (right) has maintained a small edge over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister. Credit: Fairfax Media

The exclusive findings show Dutton has maintained a small edge over Albanese as preferred prime minister, leading by 35 to 34 per cent, in a dramatic reversal of results one year ago that showed him lagging by 25 to 46 per cent.

The primary vote results mean Labor and the Coalition are now tied at 50:50 in two-party terms for the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor since the last election, ending Labor’s long lead on this measure. The two-party calculation assumes the same preference flows as in 2022.

The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, has asked respondents about the national outlook since the surveys began in April 2021, measuring how many think things are getting better or worse for the country as a whole.

Only 16 per cent said the national outlook was improving in the July survey, while 29 per cent said it would stay the same and 55 per cent said it was getting worse.

With households suffering from rising prices and higher interest rates, 53 per cent of voters named the cost of living as the most important issue in deciding their votes, while another 12 per cent named housing and rental affordability.

The survey also highlights the way household budgets are being stretched, with 30 per cent saying they are earning less than they spend and another 38 per cent earning the same as they spend.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings showed the risk to Labor from the economic gloom in the electorate.

“The economy is one of the biggest risk areas for the government, with their path to retaining power having steep drops on either side represented by inflation on the one hand and recession on the other,” he said.

“Labor has problems in several policy areas at the moment, but the dominant concern of Australians is the cost of living and housing. These are traditional areas of strength for the Coalition, so if Labor does not make progress, voters will continue to jump ship.”

Only 27 per cent of voters said they were earning more than they were spending and were therefore able to save money, but this was only 16 per cent among voters on lower incomes. It was 36 per cent among those on high incomes.

The Resolve Political Monitor classifies respondents as low income when they earn less than $50,000 a year, while medium income is between $50,000 and $100,000, and high income is above $100,000.

The latest survey found 69 per cent of respondents felt their jobs were secure for the next year or two, reflecting the relatively low unemployment rate. Among those on low incomes, however, the result was 49 per cent.

Core support for the Greens fell from 14 to 13 per cent and support for independents was unchanged at 11 per cent, while support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was steady at 6 per cent.

When voters were asked who would do a better job of keeping the cost of living low, 31 per cent named Dutton and the Coalition and 24 per cent backed Albanese and Labor.

On economic management, 40 per cent named the Coalition and 24 per cent favoured Labor.

Asked who was best to manage immigration and refugees, 37 per cent backed the Coalition and 21 per cent preferred Labor.

On jobs and wages, 34 per cent preferred the Coalition compared to 30 per cent for Labor – the first time Dutton has gained the advantage on this measure in the Resolve Political Monitor.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1603 eligible voters from Wednesday to Saturday to generate results with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. The changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error over the past month but confirmed the gain for the Coalition and decline for Labor over the past year.

The Labor primary vote has fallen from 37 per cent to 28 per cent since August, while the Coalition primary vote has risen from 33 per cent to 38 per cent over the same time.

The survey was taken as Albanese travelled to Queensland at the end of last week to announce Labor candidates for the next election and win over a key state, while Dutton was in Washington, DC, for the Australian American Leadership Dialogue.

Asked about Albanese, 33 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job but 54 per cent said he was doing a poor job.

This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 21 percentage points, a significantly worse result than his net rating of minus 14 points one month ago.

Asked about Dutton, 39 per cent said he was doing a good job, a slight fall, and 39 per cent said he was doing a poor job, also a slight decline. His net rating was zero, a slight deterioration from his net rating of 2 percentage points one month ago.

Reed noted that some Coalition policies had divided voters, with a special survey two weeks ago showing 41 per cent of voters backed nuclear power and 37 per cent opposed it, but he said Dutton remained focused on the cost of living.

“There are people who don’t agree with the Coalition’s stance on many things, including nuclear power, the break-up of supermarkets and fuel efficiency standards, but they are all about fighting for lower costs for consumers,” Reed said.

“Dutton has been consistent in this, and in doing so has presented himself anew to the electorate as a rational advocate of bolder policy. This won’t work with everyone, but our research shows that he’s got the contrast right.”

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