The jury was unanimous. What happens next to Donald Trump is far less clear

New York: He was the first sitting president to be impeached twice, the first person to win the White House with no prior government or military service, and the first former president to seek re-election fighting 88 criminal charges.

Now, Donald Trump has added a new notorious title to his career: the first presidential candidate running for office as a convicted felon.

After six weeks, 22 witnesses and two days of deliberations, a jury of 12 New Yorkers convicted Trump of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal that could have derailed his chances of winning the 2016 election.

Former US president Donald Trump after the verdict was read at the Criminal Court in Manhattan.Credit: AP

In a decision that reverberated around the world, the 77-year-old Republican was found guilty on all 34 counts by a panel of five women and seven men, who unanimously concluded that he was part of a scheme to defraud the American people in the pursuit of power.

“The only voice that matters is the voice of the jury, and the jury has spoken,” said Alvin Bragg, the district attorney who prosecuted the case many thought wasn’t viable.

The verdict hit like a thunderclap across Manhattan, where Trump made his name, firstly as a playboy bachelor and real estate mogul, then as a reality-TV star who ended up winning the highest office in the land – even if it meant paying off porn stars for their silence.

Inside the 15th-floor courtroom where the details of his sex life and political ambition had been laid bare for weeks, Trump sat with a frown as the verdict was announced.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg speaks to the media after a jury found former president Donald Trump guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.Credit: AP

Outside, fans lashed out at the justice system, while critics held banners emblazoned with slogans such as “Justice Matters” and “Lies Have Consequences”.

But despite this extraordinary moment in history, the consequences for Trump remain largely unclear, both legally and politically.

Falsifying business records in New York generally carries a maximum four-year prison sentence for each count (although New York caps prison sentences at 20 years for this type of offence).

However, Judge Juan Merchan is far more likely to consider a lesser sentence, such as probation, a fine, or a conditional discharge, considering Trump’s lack of criminal history and the non-violent nature of the offence.

And in terms of how this plays out politically as America heads towards an election in November?

Donald Trump shook his son Eric’s hand as he walked out of the courtroom.Credit: AP

“It’s never a good thing to be a convicted felon – no one could think that – but does that automatically mean he’ll lose? No,” says veteran political analyst Larry Sabato.

“But it could make a modest dent in Trump, and a modest dent in states where it’s extremely close could make all the difference.”

Whether this happens is yet to be seen, given so much of the Republican’s support and opposition is already baked in.

A recent ABC/Ipsos poll, for example, asked Trump supporters what they would do if he were convicted in the hush-money trial. Eight in 10 said they would continue to support Trump even if he was convicted of a felony in this case. Only 4 per cent said they would no longer support him, and 16 per cent said they would reconsider.

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on the day of the verdicts was also telling. Overall, about two-thirds (67 per cent) of Trump supporters said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote, while three-quarters (76 per cent) said the same should the jurors find him not guilty.

Nothing particularly new has been revealed about Trump’s conduct, either – much of the country already knows that he’s a philanderer with a tendency to game the system.

The verdict sheet in the trial of Donald Trump after a jury convicted him of felony crimes for falsifying business records in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election.Credit: AP

And compared with all the other trials Trump faces – one for mishandling classified documents and two for subverting the 2020 election – this was arguably the least important.

What is clear, however, is that this collection of 34 verdicts infuriates Trump, galvanises his base, and will embolden Republicans who firmly believe the case against him was politically motivated.

They see a Democrat district attorney who campaigned for office as the best person to go after Trump.

They see a payment to a porn star eight years ago that only made it to trial in the heat of an election campaign using a novel and untested legal theory to secure a conviction.

And they see a judge whose daughter has worked for some of the nation’s top Democrats.

Not surprisingly, Trump’s allies are already demanding revenge.

“We aren’t a serious political movement until we are ready to fight fire with fire,” said influential conservative activist Charlie Kirk. “Indict the left, or lose America.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson described the verdict as “a shameful day in American history”.

“Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon,” he said, in a nod to the trial’s star witness, Michael Cohen.

And Trump, who has long promised “retribution”, vowed that the real reckoning was yet to come.

“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be November 5th – by the people,” he said, in reference to election day. “They know what happened here.”

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