Labor vote falls to new low as Australians buckle under cost-of-living pressure

Australians have cut their support for the federal government as they feel the financial damage from rising prices and higher interest rates, lifting the Coalition on a wave of discontent over grocery costs and energy bills.

An exclusive survey shows 55 per cent of voters say they would struggle to pay for a major expense because their finances are stretched so thin, which sharpens the political row over the best way to help in the May 14 federal budget.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Composite images by The Age and Sydney Morning Herald

Voters have cut Labor’s primary vote from 32 to 30 per cent over the past month, below the level of the party’s historically low vote at the 2022 election. Support for the Coalition increased from 35 to 36 per cent over the same period.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has kept his personal lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, ahead by 41 to 32 per cent respectively as preferred prime minister.

The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, confirms the pressure on households in a series of results on the gloomier outlook for the nation, heightened concern about grocery costs and support for action in the budget.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the shift in core support meant Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50-50 in two-party terms after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents.

“There’s now a swing against Labor compared with their narrow majority at the 2022 election,” Reed said.

Albanese has promised more household relief in the May budget after assuring Australians previous policies have already helped with cost pressures, citing the caps on coal and gas prices as well as subsidies for energy bills.

In a sign of the pressure on households, 55 per cent of respondents said they would struggle to pay if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars for a new item such as a fridge or a car repair. Another 34 per cent said they would not struggle to pay and 11 per cent were unsure.

The strain was greatest among workers on low incomes, with 65 per cent saying they would struggle to pay. But the pressure was felt across the population: 50 per cent of high-income respondents also said they would struggle.

The Resolve Political Monitor classifies respondents as low income when they earn less than $50,000 a year, while a medium income is between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, and a high income is above $100,000 a year.

Highlighting the gulf between home renters and owners, 57 per cent of those who rent said they would struggle with the cost, compared with 36 per cent of those with a mortgage.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate 12 times since the last election and economists are divided on when it may start to ease monetary policy. Investors on the futures market have assumed the first cut will not take place until next year.

The new survey found that 26 per cent of voters believed that interest rates were mainly about global factors beyond the government’s control, but 48 per cent said the decisions were mainly about domestic factors. The remainder were undecided.

Asked to name two costs that were of greatest concern, people identified groceries as the top priority (named by 55 per cent) and utility bills as the next major factor (named by 37 per cent). The proportion who named utility bills fell from 47 per cent on the same question last July.

When voters were asked to name one measure the May budget should include to help households, 24 per cent said it should put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Another 20 per cent said they wanted energy bill relief, while 20 per cent named investing in housing supply. Another 15 per cent said they wanted further cuts to personal income tax rates and 14 per cent backed an increase in welfare payments.

“We detected some financial optimism at the start of 2024, but the sheer pressure of living costs is making itself felt again,” Reed said.

“Most Australians are now telling us that they would struggle to cope with a major unexpected expense, like having to repair a car or replace a fridge. That gives you some idea of how precarious a lot of households are right now.”

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1610 people from April 17 to 21, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. This means all changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error.

Because the poll asked voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they filled in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election, there was no “undecided” category in the results, a key difference from some other surveys.

Core support for Labor fell from 32 to 30 per cent compared to the Resolve survey in March, continuing a steady decline in the party’s primary vote over the past year.

The Labor primary vote has fallen in eight of the past 10 Resolve surveys, despite the government’s attempts to revive its fortunes with the overhaul of the stage 3 personal tax cuts and the promise of a “future made in Australia” with investments in new industries.

Core support for the Coalition was 30 per cent one year ago and rose to 34 per cent in December and to 37 per cent in February, before slipping in March. At 36 per cent in April, it is at its second-highest point in the Resolve surveys since the last election.

The shift against Labor was not replicated in the findings on personal performance, with Albanese and Dutton both improving on this measure, and many voters continue to regard Labor as the favourites to win the next election.

Asked how they rated Albanese, 43 per cent of people said his performance was good and 45 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, improved to minus 2 percentage points from minus 11 in March.

Asked about Dutton, 40 per cent of people said his performance was good and 42 per cent said it was poor. His net result was minus 2 percentage points, an improvement from minus 9 points a month ago.

“Political parties tend to gain support when the context plays to their strengths,” Reed said. “At the moment it’s going the Coalition’s way, with voter attention squarely on the security issues of the economy, defence, crime and immigration.

“Labor has done better when there are more aspirational debates about climate, foreign affairs, health and education, but they’re largely in the background at present.”

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