Built like Drago, fight like Rocky: How the Rugby World Cup final will be won and lost

There’s a sense of timing to New Zealand’s run to the World Cup final.

Twelve months ago, their coach Ian Foster was in danger of being replaced. His players’ subsequent on-field performances, and their advocating for him to New Zealand Rugby, may have been the catalyst for this run to the final.

This All Blacks team are tough. But what is toughness? They’re physical, yes, and winning every combat in this game, whether carrying the ball or not, is a crucial ingredient to success.

Ardie Savea is the best forward in the world and he makes more metres through contact than anyone that plays this game. Despite people keep saying the All Blacks’ aura is gone, they keep winning the matches that count.

UN-ALL BLACK ALL BLACKS

Go back and look at the first and last two minutes of their quarter-final against Ireland.

The first two minutes of that match reminded me of the Wallabies’ semi-final against the All Blacks at the 2003 World Cup. They laid all their cards on the table straight away. There was no subterfuge. That was a different kind of toughness. A tough mindset. A brave one, even.

Ardie Savea celebrates the All Blacks’ win over Ireland in the World Cup quarter-finals.Credit: AP

They said, we have our attacking breakdown strategy sorted, we know how the referees are officiating it at this World Cup, we are going to occupy the ground between the two 15-metre lines whether we have the ball or not, and we are going to measure our forward pack against yours. We will make that how the game is decided.

In the end, the All Blacks had 44 per cent possession and 40 per cent territory. In attack they offloaded only four times, passed a third as much as Ireland, and only conceded 3 turnovers.

Defensively, they made 210 tackles at a 90 per cent success rate and of course won the game by resisting Ireland for 30-plus phases at the end. Somehow the most un-All Black like performance we’ve seen for a long while perfectly sums up these All Blacks.

THE VALUE OF EXTRA REST

If, as many World Cup finals do, this match descends into a tight dog fight, there’s plenty of fight in this dog.

They’ve had the better, recent preparation and get a crucial extra day’s rest. South Africa not having the extra day is more important than the All Blacks having it. The semi-final was a perfect match for New Zealand. No matter who won the two titanic battles that were the Paris quarter-finals, those teams would struggle to get back ‘up’ for the following week’s semis.

New Zealand did it brilliantly. They started with intensity and accuracy and Argentina never got a look in. They kicked more, for 988m, had 12 line breaks which they converted into seven tries, 16 offloads and kept their turnovers and penalties conceded to single digits.

Their effort defensively to scramble back and not concede a single try from Argentina’s nine clean breaks allowed them to manage the back end of the game. This was highlighted by seven of the AB’s players and crucially four of the tight five playing 60 or less minutes.

Physically, New Zealand are set up ideally for a benchmark performance. They’ve been tactically flexible, street smart at the tackle contest, their attacking kick variety will again cause trouble for South Africa’s back three and have continually improved their set piece.

BUILT LIKE DRAGO, FIGHT LIKE ROCKY

How are South Africa even still here? They could so easily have lost their quarter-final against France. It could’ve been over after 20 minutes. And they should’ve lost their semi-final against England. You can’t win from that situation, they didn’t even look like they would. England played the perfect game plan for 75 minutes and still the reigning champions found a way.

But they have so many avenues they can use to get them back into the game. In the semi, it was the scrum via their depth in the front row. In the quarter it was the opportunism off the back of their defensive pressure. Consider this, they don’t win their quarter without Jesse Kriel’s defensive work throughout, let alone his try assist kick (see video below).

But in the semi, due to the conditions he wasn’t a factor at all. He barely touched the ball the whole game. The only common factor, his team won.

Against France, South Africa had 40 per cent possession, 31 per cent territory, less than half the line breaks and offloads of France and logically made double the tackles but missed an astounding 40!

They also scored four tries to three and won the game. They may all be the size of Ivan Drago, but they fight like Rocky.

OUT-OF-THE-BOKS INNOVATION

People that call the Springboks ‘one dimensional’ are lazy in their analysis. They are the innovators of world rugby. All of that experimenting and innovating has been for one purpose: defending their title. The culmination of these attempts is once again naming seven forwards and one back on their bench to face New Zealand. It is the same tactic the Springboks used against the All Blacks in their big win at Twickenham in August.

South Africa’s director of rugby Rassie Erasmus and head coach Jacques Nienaber have gone back to their experienced halves combination in Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard. The forward-heavy bench excludes Cobus Reinach and Manie Libbok. The risk is obvious, if either of the halves go down injured early, the final could be over. Cheslin Kolbe would have to cover scrumhalf if disaster strikes and Willie le Roux the sole replacement back could come on for Pollard.

The upside is that the Boks team could be carrying fatigue and niggles into this game on the quick back-up from a tough, forward-oriented semi.

People that call the Springboks ‘one dimensional’ are lazy in their analysis.

Morgan Turinui

The seven replacement forward options will help them maintain their execution and work rate against an All Blacks pack that will target their lineout and ball at the breakdown.

The Boks can play a few different styles that aren’t just based on attrition, and have a belief in themselves that only those that have been here before can justifiably claim. Their awareness of being part of something greater than themselves can carry them far.

KICKING WINS WORLD CUPS

The Springboks also have an excellent kicking game from varied sources, especially at the back end of the game.

This final should be decided by the boot. Kicking for territory will decide where the game is played, that will be more important than who has the ball. Attacking contestable kicking could well be the source of the tries scored in this final.

And the pressure goal-kicking of the greats of the game in World Cup finals has been decisive and is legendary.

The names evoke images and emotions. Fox and Lynagh. Stransky versus Mehrtens. Burke and Flatley in gold. Wilkinson a muddied white. Montgomery. Donald, somehow, Donald. Carter then Pollard. Can Pollard do it again? Can Richie Mo’unga? Or will there be a Jordie Barrett long-range special?

Whoever wins this battle between the two great rugby nations, they’ll be deserved victor.

Morgan Turinui is a former Wallabies centre and expert on Stan Sport’s commentary team for the Rugby World Cup.

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