Confusion over the Voice keeps the No vote in front – despite a late gain for Yes

A clear majority of Australians have turned against the Indigenous Voice despite a small swing towards the Yes campaign over the past month as the referendum campaign enters its final week.

Confusion over the Voice has undercut support for the contentious change, with only 29 per cent of voters saying they are happy to cast their ballots on the principle of the Voice without knowing the design, while 60 per cent want more information.

With 56 per cent of voters rejecting the proposal, the conclusions highlight the doubts among voters over its scale. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is calling it a “modest request” and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is warning it will divide the nation by race.

An exclusive survey, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, found that 23 per cent agreed with the idea that the Voice would be a small and modest change to the way Australia was governed, but 44 per cent said it was an important and significant one.

The results show that support for the Voice has increased from 43 to 44 per cent over the past month but that this has not been strong enough to make a big impact on the No side.

Australians go to the ballot boxes this week with 52 per cent of NSW voters and 54 per cent of Victorians against the Voice, as well as 64 per cent of Queenslanders, 61 per cent of West Australians and 56 per cent of South Australian voters.

The findings suggest the Voice is on track for defeat on the “double majority” test that requires a national majority of voters and most states to vote yes, with Tasmania set apart with 56 per cent of its voters in favour of change.

“This latest poll is relatively rare in that it shows the first stabilisation of the Yes vote since April,” Resolve director Jim Reed said.

“It is too early to tell whether this is a brief hiatus, a bottoming out or the beginnings of a bounce-back for the Yes camp, but it will give them some hope that their dominant advertising spend and refreshed message is reaping rewards.”

The survey shows that 19 per cent of Australians are “soft voters” because there is a greater doubt about whether they will commit to Yes or No – and that a big shift within this group could decide the outcome when ballots are counted this Saturday.

This comprises 9 per cent of voters who are “soft No” and 10 per cent who are “soft Yes” on a key question that gives them the same wording as the referendum ballot paper.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 4728 eligible voters, three times the respondent base for standard monthly surveys, to generate results with a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points and a greater confidence in the findings for each state, and groups within each state.

Asked the exact wording of the referendum proposal, the survey shows 49 per cent of voters oppose the Voice and 38 per cent support it, with another 13 per cent undecided.

The number of voters who say they would “definitely” vote yes has climbed from 22 to 25 per cent over the past month, while those who say they would “probably” vote yes has edged up from 12 to 13 per cent. There has been no change to the definite or probable No vote.

While the number of undecided voters has fallen over the past month, the total impact has not delivered a big gain for the Yes camp because many of those undecided ultimately say they would vote no.

When asked a second question that allows only a yes or no answer akin to the referendum, and using the exact wording put forward by the government, 56 per cent oppose the change and 44 per cent are in favour.

This is the first Resolve Political Monitor over the past six months to show an increase for the Yes side, with surveys during this year showing a slide in support from 58 per cent in January to 53 per cent in May and 49 per cent in June.

The latest shift, from 43 per cent in September to 44 per cent in October, is within the margin of error for the survey and too small to suggest a dramatic resurgence in the final week.

“Our survey shows that undecided voters are splitting fairly equally between Yes and No when we force them to choose, which reflects what will happen to them at the ballot box,” Reed said.

“That means the decreasing undecided vote is having a minimal impact, which is also true of enrolment and turnout now we know both of those will be high.”

Younger voters have shifted toward the Yes side but their move has not been enough to salvage the bid for constitutional reform.

Support for the Voice among voters aged from 18 to 34 has risen to 62 per cent from 58 per cent one month ago on the “yes or no” question, but this has not been enough to offset strong opposition from older voters.

While voters aged from 35 to 54 have increased their support for the change to 47 per cent from 42 per cent last month, a majority of this age group continues to oppose the change.

Those aged 55 and over have cemented their objections to the Voice, with 69 per cent against, and this cohort represents a bigger share of the electorate due to the ageing of the population.

A gender divide has also widened over the past month, with 58 per cent of men against the Voice compared to 54 per cent of women.

While the proportion of men who are against the change has not shifted from the September results, the number of women who oppose it has fallen from 57 per cent one month ago.

Support for the Voice among Labor voters has increased to 67 per cent after a steady decline all year and a result of 60 per cent one month ago.

Coalition voters have not moved over the past month, with 84 per cent against the change on the “yes or no” question.

Greens voters are backing the proposal with 80 per cent in favour, up slightly from 78 per cent one month ago.

While former Greens senator Lidia Thorpe is calling for a No vote and some Greens MPs oppose the change or have been silent for much of the campaign, support for the Voice is strongest among Greens voters and has fallen only slightly from 81 per cent in June, when parliament passed the referendum bill.

How the Resolve Political Monitor polling works

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