LNP ahead in the polls as voters consider Crisafulli over Palaszczuk

The news

Voter support for the LNP has overtaken Labor as loyalty to Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk fades and people consider whether David Crisafulli should lead an alternative government.

David Crisafulli and the LNP have established a lead over Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her Labor Party in the latest Resolve polling.Credit: Nordacious (aka James Hillier)

With its primary vote increasing to 38 per cent, the LNP has moved ahead of Labor (32 per cent) for the first time in the Resolve Strategic poll, conducted exclusively for Brisbane Times.

Yet 30 per cent of respondents would have given their first vote to minor parties or independents, still a higher proportion than at the 2020 election.

In another first, Crisafulli is now the preferred premier, according to the Resolve polling.

Personal support for Palaszczuk has slumped, with 43 per cent of respondents having a negative opinion of the premier. And while voters appear to have become more familiar with the opposition leader, he still remains relatively unknown to one-third of voters.

Why it matters

The result represents a major shift from the 2020 pandemic-era election, in which Labor and the LNP attracted primary votes of 40 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively.

That delivered Palaszczuk’s government a third term that, barring any unexpected events, will cement her as the state’s longest-serving post-war Labor premier by May.

Since then, long-simmering problems around health, housing and crime have become the focus of public attention, forcing Palaszczuk to concede her government needed to do better.

It comes amid a concerted LNP campaign to paint the government as one of “chaos and crisis”, while not yet detailing much of their own platform.

Perspectives

The polling across a four-month period spanning the May cabinet reshuffle and June’s budget also parallels recent News Corp and Australian Financial Review surveys.

Last month, Palaszczuk tried to discredit the latter as the work of “LNP operatives”.

Queensland University of Technology adjunct associate professor John Mickel has previously said results so far out from an election should be taken with a grain of salt.

But the former parliamentary speaker and Labor state government minister also cautioned against ignoring them.

Both major party leaders have declared themselves the underdog heading into the October 2024 vote.

Where to from here

Well into the second half of the state’s first fixed four-year election cycle, political posturing has started and will become more calculated and persistent.

Statewide council elections in March next year will also keep the political calendar topped up, particularly in party-dominated Brisbane.

The Greens’ federal success in 2022, and ambitions at the council level, could also provide further state election intrigue.

Behind our reporting

Resolve Strategic, which conducts polls for Brisbane Times, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, surveyed registered Queensland voters at several points across four months before providing us with their findings.

This round, between mid-May and the end of last week, had a sample size of 947 and a 3.2 per cent margin of error.

More reading

• Fourth housing meeting called as Palaszczuk discredits negative polls
• Fear and hoping in Brisvegas
• Canva, ‘chaos’ and Crisafulli: The LNP’s plans (so far) for Queensland
• React and repeat? What Palaszczuk’s cabinet shake-up could really tell us