‘This is his year’: Our experts preview the AFL season

Will Clayton Oliver win the Brownlow Medal? Is this the year Tasmania’s path into the AFL will be cleared? Will Brisbane’s father-son draft pick Will Ashcroft show the skill of his three-time premiership winning father and win the Rising Star award?

Our football experts have their say on this and more in our time capsule of predictions. What will be the fans’ biggest gripe be, and which teams are set to rise and slide on the ladder? Keep reading to find out.

How will the 2023 season pan out? Scroll down to explore our team-by-team interactive, where our experts have assessed each club and provided their ladder predictions. Chief football writer Jake Niall weighs up every team, saying the Dees are best positioned to win a flag while a recruiting spree at the Lions should help them finish in the top four.

All but three of our experts are predicting that Fremantle won’t make the top eight in 2023. And while Carlton suffered heartbreak last season, missing finals by less than one percentage point, 10 of our experts have them rising up the ladder to feature in September this season – some even expect them to finish in the top four. This year could also mark the first time Gold Coast play finals, according to three of our experts, while a majority have the Suns improving on 12th place.

Niall, Caroline Wilson and Michael Gleeson are back for the Real Footy podcast every Monday – the first episode is already live, listen to it here. And there will be a second weekly podcast episode dropping on the first day of each round this season, with our experts tipping each match.

Emma Kearney, North Melbourne AFLW captain

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). The Demons will be stronger premiership contenders in 2023 and it’s Oliver’s consistency in the contest that will gather the attention of the umpires. Has had a couple of standout years now, but can often get overshadowed by the work of Christian Petracca.
Rising Star: Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne). High footy IQ with great skills to match. Doesn’t look flustered mixing it with the bigger bodies.
Story of the season: Last season was all about the ageing Cats and how they were able to use their experience throughout the campaign. In 2023, it will be all about the kids and how their boldness and infectious energy impacts on games.
On the rise: Carlton.
On the slide: Fremantle.
Headline you won’t see: North winning another wooden spoon
Fans’ biggest gripe: Blurry camera angles for the score reviews.

Caroline Wilson

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). The champion midfielder looks ready to lead Melbourne back into the top four this year.
Rising Star: Aaron Cadman (GWS). The No. 1 draft pick has done everything right, will break the mould of No.1 picks in recent years and justify the Giants’ faith in him from day one.
Story of the season: Gillon McLachlan will remain at the helm long enough to announce the birth of a 19th AFL team in Tasmania.
On the rise: Port Adelaide. Creating yet another intriguing chapter in the relationship between coach and president.
On the slide: Collingwood. Just a short-term hiccup, but the Magpies will become a target this season with injuries and personnel changes bringing them back to the pack.
Headline you won’t see: Kevin Sheedy quits Essendon board
Fans’ biggest gripe: Another gratuitous debate about the start time to the grand final.

Jake Niall, chief football writer

Brownlow: Christian Petracca (Melbourne). He finished with 24 votes last year after a season in which he had fluctuations and injury. He can do better in a dominant side.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions). He’ll play from the outset, in a strong midfield and will benefit from the tag on Lachie Neale.
Story of the season: The big-name coaches in their second comings at success-starved clubs – Alastair Clarkson, Ross Lyon, Brad Scott.
On the rise: The Western Bulldogs. So much talent, tall and in the midfield, can’t be denied.
On the slide: Hawthorn. They were 13th and they’ll be at least a few spots lower with so little experience. Long-term, though, they’ll be fine.
Headline you won’t see: Clarko goes to Buddhist retreat
Fans’ biggest gripe: Match review outcomes.

Michael Gleeson

Brownlow: Chad Warner (Sydney). He can do everything. More will be expected of him at the Swans this year, and he will deliver.
Rising Star: Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs). He has the size and athleticism, he’ll play every game and be a game changer for the Dogs.
Story of the season: Tasmania to get a team. On-field matters should be the story, but a team in Tassie is fixing a historic wrong.
On the rise: Dustin Martin, he will find his best again.
On the slide: Presidents who make headlines.
Headline you won’t see: AFL cuts ties with betting companies
Fans’ biggest gripe: Aside from perennials (umpires and tribunal) ... TV commentary.

Can Sam Darcy take out the Rising Star award this year?Credit: AFL Photos

Greg Baum

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs). Because he has to win one.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions). Because it’s the next logical milestone on his journey.
Story of the season: Concussion crisis prompts radical re-think.
On the rise: Gold Coast. The 12-year plan comes to fruition.
On the slide: Sydney. They can’t hover forever.
Headline you won’t see: Fan satisfaction with umpires on the rise
Fans’ biggest gripe: Noise pollution at the stadiums.

Jon Pierik

Brownlow: Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions). The addition of Josh Dunkley will make him even more dangerous.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft. A rookie ready to thrive in a man’s world.
Story of the season: Can Alastair Clarkson lift a playing group on its knees?
On the rise: Carlton. It’s time to regain some of that 1980s, ’90s arrogance.
On the slide: Fremantle. Hard to decipher where this side now sits.
Headline you won’t see: Hird ready to return to Bombers
Fans’ biggest gripe: More cameras needed for accurate score reviews.

Marnie Vinall

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). Each year Oliver is right up there in the conversation to home Charlie, and if teammate Christian Petracca doesn’t take too many votes off him, I can’t see anyone getting in his way this season.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions). While it feels like a bit of a copout to choose the most hyped draftee, this kid seems like a genuine star who’ll rival the biggest midfield stars. Plus playing for Brisbane, who are expected to do well this season, can only help his case.
Story of the season: Will this be Buddy Franklin’s last year, or will he be going one more? (See this every week in the latter half of the season based on his performance each week)
On the rise: Brisbane. The Lions were a good team last year, making it one game off the grand final, but with the inclusion of new talent and energy with Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston and Will Ashcroft coming on board, they could rise even further up the ladder this time around.
On the slide: Hawthorn. While they had a mediocre season last year, see them sliding even further this one.
Headline you won’t see: Essendon break finals win drought
Fans’ biggest gripe: Umpiring rules (but only when the decisions go against their team).

Andrew Wu

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). Gun midfielder in a top team, and a prolific vote-getter.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions). Ready-made midfielder will thrive knowing he does not have to be the Lions’ top ball hunter.
Story of the season: Dees go head-to-head with Cats in dynasty race.
On the rise: Carlton. No more excuses.
On the slide: Richmond. All good things must come to an end.
Headline you won’t see: North fans slam Clarkson for lack of emotion
Fans’ biggest gripe: Too much Thursday night footy means nothing to do on weekends.

How far can the Blues go this season?Credit: Getty Images

Marc McGowan

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). Equal-fourth last year and third in 2021, Melbourne’s ultra-consistent on-baller is primed to top both those results and win the medal this season.
Rising Star: Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs). Luke Jackson and Jesse Hogan were the only key-position players to win this award in the past decade, but Darcy is talented enough to join them.
Story of the season: Charlie Curnow becomes first player to kick 80-plus goals since Josh Kennedy in 2016 as Carlton end finals drought and seal top-four berth.
On the rise: Gold Coast. The Suns are finally set to shine after a long run-up, with Ben King’s return to cap their first finals appearance.
On the slide: Fremantle. Rory Lobb’s departure – even with Luke Jackson’s arrival – could hurt more than first thought, especially if Matt Taberner struggles with injury again.
Headline you won’t see: Tigers send Cotchin and Riewoldt into retirement with another flag
Fans’ biggest gripe: Gambling advertising increasingly part of AFL game coverage.

Peter Ryan

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs). The fire is in the belly after last year’s disappointments.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) They don’t often appear more ready to excel immediately.
Story of the season: The St Kilda reset – how far away from contention are they really?
On the rise: Gold Coast. They are well and truly Dew.
On the slide: Fremantle. They’ll miss the finals and need another year to become contenders.
Headline you won’t see: Toby Greene brain fade leads to tribunal appearance
Fans’ biggest gripe: Why not Thursday night football every week?

Is this the year the Suns see September action?Credit: AFL Photos

Kane Cornes

Brownlow: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne). Oliver has polled 56 votes in the last two seasons and is primed for another year leading Melbourne’s dynamic midfield. He kicked just five goals last year; if he pushes into the front half more this season, he will be impossible for umpires to ignore.
Rising Star: Finn Callaghan (GWS). Callaghan is a prototype, athletic, big-bodied midfielder with a weapon of a left foot. With the departure of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, he will get maximum opportunities through the Giant’s midfield. Injury disrupted his first season, but the third pick in 2021 is fit and ready to break out.
Story of the season: St Kilda sacked Brett Ratten three months after extending his contract, believing that their list was better than it had shown. They feared getting stuck in the six-to-10 zone on the ladder. Trying to lower expectations on new coach Ross Lyon, they have since distanced themselves from those comments. However, anything but a top-eight finish will make the brutal call on Ratten go from bad to disaster.
On the rise: Adelaide.
On the slide: St Kilda.
Headline you won’t see: Zurhaar has last laugh in online feud he started with ex-teammate Horne-Francis
Fans’ biggest gripe: Holding the ball. The league is set to be red-hot on holding the ball, giving ball winners less time to dispose of the football. This is problematic as it disincentivises players from winning the ball and rewards those who sweat off to tackle. It will result in an inconsistent interpretation of the rule and drive the fans mad.

Sam McClure

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs). His career has been too good not to have won one. This is his year.
Rising Star: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions). Based on the little we’ve seen so far, he might play two thirds of the season and still win it.
Story of the season: Why the wait? Clubs become restless as the AFL delays finding a replacement for Gillon McLachlan.
On the rise: Gold Coast.
On the slide: Fremantle.
Headline you won’t see: Blues become unstoppable
Fans’ biggest gripe: Too many free kicks.