Seven charts that show why Djokovic will win the 2023 Australian Open

Novak Djokovic holds so many tennis records and titles it takes days to digest the data needed to analyse his career and the likelihood of him winning the Australian Open for a 10th time this year.

As Australia’s last hope Alex de Minaur prepares for the match of his life on Rod Laver Arena on Monday night, we’ve broken it all down and put together seven charts that show just how good Djokovis is, and why he is favourite to win the tournament again in 2023.

The charts and detailed analysis below are based on match data dating back to 2003 and official records.

Last year was not exceptional, it’s just the way ‘the Djoker’ rolls

He didn’t get any points for winning Wimbledon, and he wasn’t able to play in Australia or at the US Open last year because of COVID-19 vaccine requirements, but Novak Djokovic still managed to stay in the top five with the highest winning rate of all players in 2022 – 83.3 per cent. And the man some call “the Djoker” is consistent – his career win rate mirrors his efforts in 2022.

Djokovic made seven finals in 2022, equal-best with world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz for the most on tour. His five victories came on grass, clay and three on hardcourts.

He didn’t drop a set to win two of them in Rome and Tel Aviv. He also won the Adelaide International 1 last week to kick off 2023.

Alcaraz won 81.8 per cent of his 66 matches in 2022. Djokovic only played 42 matches but still scored the most wins against top 10 players; 11 wins, and 3 losses. Alcaraz was the next best against elite players, with a 9-5 record.

The Serbian has consistently beaten the top 10 players more than anyone else, 69 per cent of the time. That’s about 5 percentage points more than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.

Head to head, he’s the most difficult to beat

Djokovic and Nadal have met more than any other pair in the Open era – 59 times – including at each of the four grand slam finals. Nadal trails 29-30, with 20 of his wins coming on clay, including three finals and three semi-finals at the French Open.

Djokovic’s other great rivals have not conquered him consistently, even on their best surfaces. Federer lost three Wimbledon finals to him in 2014, 2015 and 2019.

Novak Djokovic celebrates his Australian Open win over Rafael Nadal in 2012.Credit: Vince Caligiuri

But it’s not just the greats who struggle. No player who has faced Djokovic more than 10 times during his 20-year career has emerged with a favourable record against him.

Data that reaches back to January 2003, Djokovic’s debut season, which includes Davis Cup ties and challenger events and has been shared with this masthead by tennis analyst Jeff Sackmann, allows us to analyse 1272 of his matches.

Djokovic’s record against 340 different players he’s faced since 2003 is exceptional. He was unable to beat just 16 people, and 12 of those rivals played against him in the early period of his career when he was playing on the Challenger Tour.

Three of the four remaining undefeated players (Alcaraz, Daniel Evans, and Taro Daniel) have played him only once.

Alcaraz’s victory was at the Madrid Masters last year. It was a three-hour, 35-minute thriller decided by just a few points – 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) – and was noteworthy because Alcaraz became the first player, ever, to defeat both Djokovic and Nadal at the same tournament on clay. Unfortunately, Alcaraz is not playing in the Australian Open due to a knee injury.

The only player with a winning record after four or more matches against Djokovic is Andy Roddick, a former world No.1 and fourth-best server of all time. Roddick led their head-to-head count 5-4 before he retired. In the last two clashes (2010 and 2012), Roddick won just eight games in four sets.

The only current players to have a favourable record in three or more outings are Jiri Vesely (2-1), and Nick Kyrgios (2-1). Kyrgios’ last effort ended in a loss at Wimbledon over four sets.

Wimbledon winner Novak Djokovic, right, praised competitor Nick Kyrgios for a great battle in the men’s final.Credit: Getty Images

Marat Safin, a former world No.1, is the only player to beat Djokovic twice and never lose. Once, in 2005 at the Australian Open – Djokovic’s debut at a grand slam – and in 2008 at Wimbledon when Safin went on to lose to Federer in the semi-final.

Djokovic’s record on hardcourts against players in the 2023 Australian Open shows how dominant he is. Only two of the 108 scheduled to play before qualifying concluded on Thursday had winning records after at least two matches against him. They are Pablo Carreno Busta, seeded 24, and Kyrgios, who pulled out with an injury but was seeded 19.

Walking like a GOAT

Great former and current players have called Djokovic “the greatest of all time” (Pete Sampras, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev), while coaching great Nick Bollettieri said he is the “most complete player, ever”.

Nadal said he is capable of playing “the highest level of tennis that I ever saw”, and lost to Djokovic in six finals on clay, grass and hardcourts in 2011.

In 2021, Djokovic beat Nadal at the French Open for the third time. No one else has done that. He then came back from two sets down to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final, making him the first player in the Open era to win all the grand slams twice. He’s also won all the ATP Masters events at least twice.

He’s won the past four Wimbledon titles, and if he’d been allowed to play the Australian Open last year, he could have won four straight here, too.

No one has been ranked No.1 for longer or ended the year at No.1 more often since ATP rankings begin in 1973.

At the 2022 ATP finals, Djokovic beat the second seed, Tsitsipas (seeded third for the Australian Open), for the ninth time in a row. That was his 60th win over an opponent ranked in the top three, another record.

For those who use money as a barometer of success, Djokovic’s record is also compelling. He leads the all-time career prizemoney list by more than some No.1 players made in their entire careers.

“In his career on hardcourts, Novak has won 56 per cent of second-serve return points. In the 30-plus years that the ATP has maintained these stats, only [Andre] Agassi is better,” Sackmann wrote. “The maestro [Federer] and the matador [Nadal] were supposed to be the greatest we’d ever seen.”

So can the “fourth-greatest player ever” win a 10th Australian Open at Rod Laver Arena next week? The data certainly says there’s a high possibility.

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