This kingmaker - and breaker - pokes the bear of pokies power

Independent MP for Sydney Alex Greenwich is a shrewd politician. He also knows his power. Greenwich is the kingmaker MP in the lower house, supported by close friend and fellow independent Greg Piper. Expect the pair to be even more influential after March.

The polling booths had only just closed on election day almost four years ago when Greenwich received a call from then premier Gladys Berejiklian. He was having a glass of wine in his Kings Cross apartment with his husband, Victor, and his political mentor, Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore, when Berejiklian stressed to him that she hoped for his support if she faced minority government.

Independent Alex Greenwich, whose power is on the rise. Credit: Damian Shaw

Then, later that night, Berejiklian – an equally shrewd politician – singled out the three independents early in her victory speech. She was sending the trio – Greenwich, Piper and Wagga Wagga MP Joe McGirr – a clear message. Berejiklian was well aware of how important they would likely be to her government.

Whoever is premier after the election next March will need to be equally attuned to their importance.

Greenwich has made the calculation that the most likely scenario next year is a minority government that relies on an expanded crossbench in NSW to lead. Labor needs to pick up at least eight seats to be in government and the Coalition is already in minority (two seats short of majority) so cannot afford to lose a single one if it has any hope of holding on to power. With the real threat of a teal wave on Sydney’s northern beaches, the major parties will struggle to get over the line alone.

A ballooning crossbench will give independents such as Greenwich even more power to make demands. This week, Greenwich made that clear.

He fired a warning shot to Labor and the Coalition. After the government abandoned a bill to reform registered clubs – albeit on a small scale – Greenwich was unequivocal when it came to what he would demand in exchange for his support next term. “I’ll now focus my energy on a private member’s bill for a universal cashless card across all gaming venues,” Greenwich said. “And I will make this a priority in any discussions about minority government in the next term.”

Greenwich was dumbfounded that the government dumped its clubs bill despite a hugely damning report from the powerful NSW Crime Commission, which found that poker machines in NSW clubs and pubs were being used by organised crimes groups to wash dirty money. It said a cashless gaming card was needed and Greenwich acted promptly. He said he would move an amendment to make the cards mandatory.

It was a sound strategy. Greenwich and the crossbench are determined to make the cards compulsory, not just to combat money laundering but also as a measure to help problem gamblers. It would also force Labor and the Coalition’s hand. They would have to back his amendment, or send the message that they were not prepared to act on the crime commission’s dire warnings. Instead, the government pulled the bill.

And yet Premier Dominic Perrottet said on Tuesday that he wanted to pursue the cashless card before the election. He has a problem with that ambition, though. On Wednesday, his deputy, Nationals leader Paul Toole, who is also the police minister, said the “technology is not there” to make the card work, so the government should instead talk to the industry.

Greenwich, meanwhile, has been highly effective in this term of parliament, including after Berejiklian’s departure. With the backing of a motley crew, including Health Minister Brad Hazzard, who is now about to retire, Greenwich ensured abortion was removed from the Crimes Act, and voluntary assisted dying was legalised. Both were hugely difficult social issues for the Liberals to deal with. Nonetheless, Greenwich secured both reforms.

His next priority will be taking on the powerful clubs and pubs. Few lobby groups are as skilled at strong-arming MPs as the clubs, led by former Labor staffer Josh Landis, who is known to have a tough approach when it comes to dealing with stakeholders.

Before the 2019 election, the Coalition and Labor signed a memorandum of understanding with ClubsNSW – actually, it’s a binding agreement – that there would be no changes to “existing regulatory regime for gaming” and the government would not increase the “current clubs gaming tax regime”. ClubsNSW will heavy both sides to sign a similar agreement before March.

ClubsNSW is dead against a mandatory gaming card, insisting it would be too costly to implement and bring the industry to its knees. It is a difficult argument to mount given how lucrative pokies are in NSW.

Statewide poker machine turnover rose from $74 billion in 2019-20 to $85 billion in 2020-21, equivalent to a quarter of all household consumption spending in NSW during that year. As NSW Crime Commissioner Michael Barnes said, surely a mandatory cashless gaming card only threatens the viability of pubs and clubs if their business model is built on the proceeds of crime?

While Berejiklian knew she needed to work with Greenwich, some in Labor are sceptical about him. Despite his social progressiveness, they are convinced he is a Liberal masquerading as an independent and would only ever back a conservative government.

Greenwich and Piper would see Labor’s assessment as unsophisticated. Both have stressed they want stable government, and no doubt will take the same view regardless of which party ultimately governs after the election. But they will also have the impetus to play a big role in that government’s policy and agenda.

Lobby groups such as ClubsNSW may hold considerable sway over the major parties but they won’t when it comes to the independents. Greenwich did not get his way this time with his latest social reform – on pokies. But his political nous, and the rise of the crossbench, all but guarantees he will.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.