Can Zoe Daniel convince enough Liberal voters to win Goldstein?

Goldstein is one of a swath of once-safe seats across the country, including North Sydney and Wentworth in Sydney, where “teal” independents will need the support of traditional Liberal voters if they are to defeat mostly moderate Coalition MPs.

Goldstein in Melbourne’s bayside is among the bluest of blue ribbon electorates and the domain of male politicians from the Liberals and its predecessors since federation 121 years ago.

Goldstein takes in the bayside suburb of Brighton, Melbourne’s “golden mile” of real estate. Credit: Wayne Taylor

The emergence of independent candidate and former ABC reporter Zoe Daniel has rewritten the script, with her high profile and well-resourced campaign making her competitive against incumbent Tim Wilson.

To win, Daniel has to convince Liberal voters.

Wilson first won the seat in 2016 by a record margin and retained it in 2019 with 52.7 per cent of the primary vote (57.8 two party preferred) despite a swing against him. Less than three weeks out from the May 21 poll, The Age invited traditional Liberal voters to tell us what they’re thinking.

Jenni Colwill

Jenni Colwill a longtime Liberal voter now switching to independent Zoe Daniel. Credit: Scott McNaughton

Jenni Colwill, 74, recalls as a 20-something working at polling booths for the Liberals on election day. For most of her life, the retired federal public servant has been connected in some way to the Goldstein electorate.

Her parents bought a house in Beaumaris in 1952 and Colwill now enjoys bay views from her home in the same suburb.

But after voting Liberal most of her life, including for John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull, she worries for her country. “I just believe that Australia is losing its dignity in so many ways.

“The Liberals lost me before the last election as a result of their racist marketing, and divisive policies,” a reference in part to the so-called African crime “crisis” exploited by senior state Liberals ahead of the 2018 Victorian election.

Colwill accuses the Morrison government of “corruption” and of weakening accountability mechanisms, including Freedom of Information laws.

She says that unlike Liberals of the past, the current government does not plan and develop infrastructure and services for all Australians.

“I don’t want to be a member of an exclusive elite, I want to be a member of a healthy and confident society that values education and honesty,” she says.

“I strongly believe this will not happen under the Morrison government.”

Colwill will vote for Zoe Daniel.

Stephen Kerdel

Stephen Kerdel Goldstein voter and Liberal supporter.Credit: The Age

Stephen Kerdel describes himself as a working class man who believes in a fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay. He says the Liberals share his values. A Beaumaris resident who runs a Moorabin carpet business Kerdel, 66, is sticking with incumbent Wilson. He is actively involved in the party he describes as a broad church that represents everyone from average workers to corporations and “even public servants”.

He acknowledges that Daniel’s campaign has made the once safe seat of Goldstein a contest.

“A bit of good competition never goes astray, We are a democracy and if it means sharpening our pencils, then we’ll sharpen the axe and go forth.”

“I’m a small business person. She is backed by a multi-millionaire which doesn’t do much for me.”

Stephen Kerdel

Kerdel sees Daniel as “part of the elite left”. “I think that her being an ABC reporter, she is maybe good with words and marketing.”

Is she winning over Liberal voters? “She’s certainly winning over Labor and Greens supporters,” says Kerdel. “There may be some disillusioned Liberals.”

He defends the Coalition’s record on climate change and its support of small business, noting that Daniel is backed by Simon Holmes a Court-founded Climate 200.

“I’m a small business person. She is backed by a multi-millionaire which doesn’t do much for me.”

David Le Blanc

Hampton resident and Goldstein voter David Le Blanc.Credit: Facebook

David Le Blanc recalls as a young boy attending functions in private homes in suburbs like Canterbury with Liberal luminaries Ron Walker, Dick Hamer and Andrew Peacock: “You probably don’t get much more blue blood than that,” observes the 58-year-old Hampton resident who runs a business importing goods into the US.

Le Blanc has voted Liberal all his life including in 2019, and says he does not have a problem with Tim Wilson, who he describes as a “progressive Liberal”.

But for the first time ever he will not vote Liberal on May 21.

“I cannot believe how out of touch the party has become,” says the father of two.

“Whether it be gay marriage, which they had to be dragged screaming and kicking to, climate change, an anti-corruption commission, or responses to natural disasters and COVID, the Liberals have been late to the party on them all.”

Le Blanc says Scott Morrison has done well standing up to China bullying.

“I’m sure there are many things the party has done well, but they’re just dropping the ball on too many hot button issues now.”

Pointing to Australia’s national debt and deficit, he says the Liberals can no longer claim to be better economic managers. He will vote for Zoe Daniel.

Chris Stewart

Beaumaris resident Chris Stewart is a former Liberal voter who is switching to independent Zoe Daniel.Credit: The Age

Chris Stewart has noted that at his local golf course, his mates are talking politics for the first time. He’s not sure, but he imagines most of the “golf boys” usually vote Liberal, like himself.

But Stewart, 69, says he lost faith in the Coalition government over the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader in 2018. “Turnbull was great. When they knifed him, I just didn’t understand it.”

A Beaumaris resident who runs his own business, Stewart will be voting Zoe Daniel this election.

“I can’t stand Scott Morrison or Josh Frydenberg. They’re full of bullshit. I can see through a lot of what they’re saying.”

Stewart is troubled by what he says are misleading unemployment figures that don’t reflect the level of underemployment in Australia, the “massive debt” chalked up by the Coalition and lack of commitment to action on climate change. He has two adult daughters in Goldstein, and one grandchild for whom climate is a worry. That generation is talking more about it than the older generation.”

Stewart says climate there has become an issue for him in the last five to 10 years.

Why is he voting Daniel? “We need to drain the swamp,” he says, “and get someone fresh with new ideas.

“I have more faith in the women in politics at the moment than the men. I see Zoe as a breath of fresh air, someone who might keep the bastards honest, so to speak.”

Brihony Boan

Brihony Boan, a Goldstein Liberal voter.

Brihony Boan is fourth generation Brighton and, she says, “probably pretty entrenched”. Her family is rusted-on Liberal and Boan, 42, describes herself as a “true Liberal voter”. By that she means she supports moderate MPs of the old Melbourne Liberal tradition and points to Josh Frydenberg, Katie Allen and Tim Wilson as examples.

“A true Liberal would back Tim or Kate or Josh,” says Boan a lawyer and mother, who horrified her family by backing the Greens when she was first eligible to vote.

Boan lives in central Brighton where there are more Daniel than Wilson signs in front gardens and windows. But she’s OK with the Goldstein contest.

“I love a good political discussion.”

Still, Boan wonders why independents promoting themselves as moderate progressives like Daniel in Goldstein and Monique Ryan in Kooyong, are challenging small-l Victorian MPs.

She is concerned about a growing right-wing Christian influence in the party and stresses the importance of supporting MPs including Wilson who, she says, are a moderating influence.

“The thing that bothers me is that they (the independents) have targeted what I regard as the good Liberals. If you take out Josh and Katie and Tim, what’s left of the Liberals?”

Karen Brickell

Brighton resident and Goldstein voter Karen BrickellCredit: The Age

Karen Brickell describes herself as a 50-year-old university educated professional living comfortably in Brighton with a young family. “By all accounts I should be a Liberal voter and I have been. I voted for Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 but Green in 2019.”

Now she is preparing to switch her vote again. “I look at the current government and could not feel more unrepresented,” says Brickell, who stresses she’s not “the other” Karen from Brighton.

“I saw the two leaders of the major parties and I thought ‘you do not represent me in any way at all’.”

Brickell, a consultant to business on customer experience, describes herself as a political “centrist”. “I am embarrassed by how we are reflected on the world stage.”

“I look at the current government and could not feel more unrepresented.”

Karen Brickell

She supports urgent action on climate change and a clear strategy and timelines for cutting emissions. And she wants more compassion on immigration and refugees. “I want leadership that shows common sense, core values of decency and humanity.”

For the first time in her life, Brickell will put a political sign on her garden gate – supporting Daniel, who she knew through her ABC reporting. “Zoe came along in Goldstein and I thought ‘thank goodness’ – finally someone I can relate to’.”

“She is a professional with years of experience outside of politics, a local mum, someone with the same values and someone who I would trust to represent me.”

John Free

Brighton resident and Goldstein voter John FreeCredit: Scott McNaughton

Like many bayside Melburnians, John Free, 70, was a supporter of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister. A Brighton resident of more than 40 years, Free was disappointed by the Liberals’ axing of Turnbull in 2018. He says he voted for Tim Wilson in 2016 and 2019 because he felt there was no real choice. Now, he says, Goldstein voters do have a choice and a real election contest.

The self-funded retiree says the Liberals are “dragging their feet” on the environment and climate change. “The Liberal Party “keep shifting the goalposts”.

He fears the Liberal strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is too heavily reliant on technology not yet invented. “The public is ahead of the government on these issues,” he says.

The electorate has had “serious” members of parliament: Ian McPhee, David Kemp and Andrew Robb, who held senior ministerial positions. “They had gravitas.”

By comparison, he describes Tim Wilson, the assistant minister for industry, energy and emissions reductions, as a “lightweight”.

“I would’ve thought the member for Goldstein in a blue ribbon seat would hold a senior portfolio in cabinet.”

Free says the government needs to help young people struggling to secure affordable housing. “This generation should be doing something for the next generation.”

And he says Goldstein has been “a bit of a boys’ club” and it’s now for “more diversity in parliament”. He will vote for Daniel.

Martin Hunt

Martin Hunt, Goldstein voter and Zoe Daniel supporter

Martin Hunt says that to be born and raised in Brighton is to be born and raised Liberal. And so he was for much of his 67 years. But no longer.

Hunt is an East Hampton resident and old Brighton Grammarian. A one-time textiles importer, now retired, he is happily on the road in northern Western Australia, on the escape from Melbourne’s looming winter.

“I was brought up and conditioned to be a Liberal voter,” he says, adding that he thinks he “probably” voted for former Liberal and Australian Democrats founder Don Chipp in the Senate at one election. Hunt has now had enough of politicians who are “only interested in themselves”.

He is worried about his daughters 25 and 28, both of whom have university degrees, is concerned about climate change and a horrendously expensive housing market.

“I want them to have the fabulous opportunities in life that I had but now there is too much dog eat dog and f--- you attitude in Australian politics.“.

Recent fires and floods in eastern Australia have a big impact on his thinking about climate and his daughters’ welfare has enhanced his interest in gender equality. Before heading north-west, Hunt was an active Daniel supporter and involved in the Voices of Goldstein group.

“Independents are crucial,” he says. “To quote Don Chipp, and truer words have never been spoken: ‘We need to keep the bastards honest’.”

Andrew (surname withheld)

Andrew likes Tim Wilson as his local MP, but he has trouble with the Liberal party and the Morrison government more broadly. The 52-year-old financial services executive was born in Beaumaris, moved to Brighton and now lives back in Beaumaris. He is bayside Goldstein through and through.

“It’s a brilliant place to bring up kids,” says the Xavier-educated father of three who has voted Liberal most of his life, including for Wilson in 2016 and 2019.

“I see Tim as a bayside person. It’s not Tim himself that is the problem here. The Liberal Party is not representing the community well.”

Andrew cites the government’s handling of the financial services industry after the banking royal commission as a case in point. “The government turned the royal commission into a political game rather than fixing problems in the industry.

He is a believer in a federal integrity commission and is disappointed Scott Morrison has not recommitted to the idea. “It sows the seed of doubt I wouldn’t have had otherwise. What’s he trying to hide?”

He is a recent convert to the need for Australia to do more on climate change. “To be honest I ignored this for many years because it didn’t affect me,” he says.

“I thought more about tax and affordability and home loan rates because it was immediate. But I’ve got kids now in their late teens and early 20s and climate change is going to affect them in their lifetime.”

Andrew says climate change policies didn’t affect the way he voted in the past. “But now it has become an important factor in my voting decision.” He is still deciding how to vote, although he is likely to put Tim Wilson last on the ballot.

He says he is “not completely sold” on Zoe Daniel but is “becoming more comfortable” with the idea of a hung parliament and independents playing an important role in the next parliament.

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