By Anthony Galloway
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has warned that Australia and its allies will “lose the next decade” unless it stands up to China in the South China Sea, and revealed he is extremely confident the first Australian nuclear submarine will arrive before 2038.
Mr Dutton said the United States and its allies had previously “acquiesced” to Beijing in the disputed waterway, allowing it to build artificial islands and defence bases out of coral reefs.
Defence Minister Peter Dutton says Australia could lose the next decade unless it stands up to China in the South China Sea.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
He said he believed it was important to speak out about China for two main reasons: to educate the Australian public and to ensure the past decade was not repeated in which Beijing had militarised the South China Sea.
“I think we’ve lost a considerable period of time where China gave assurances about their activity in the South China Sea,” Mr Dutton told this masthead.
“And the United States and others acquiesced and allowed the militarisation now to the point where China has 20 points of presence in the South China Sea, which does not help stability in the region.
“If we continue on that trajectory, then I think we’ll lose the next decade. And my sense is that we’re better off being honest about that.”
The Defence Minister’s comments come before the arrival in Australia of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will take part in a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s foreign ministers in Melbourne this week, before travelling to Fiji and Hawaii.
The four nations which make up the Quad – Australia, the US, India and Japan – will look to intensify co-operation on security and development assistance in a bid to stand up to China.
The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has launched a four-part series assessing whether Australian forces could defend the nation from an attack, and whether Australia has the necessary military capabilities to meaningfully project power deep into the region alongside allies as tensions in the Indo-Pacific ratchet up.
Mr Dutton has been criticised by some national security experts and the Opposition for antagonising China since he took over the portfolio, most notably over his comments that it would be “inconceivable” for Australia not to join the US in any defence of Taiwan.
He said his focus was on “prevailing peace” in the region, and it was important to realise that Australia wasn’t the only country experiencing significant tensions with Beijing.
Mr Dutton revealed he was extremely confident that Australia would have its first nuclear-powered submarine before 2038, saying recent discussions with American and British officials under the AUKUS agreement had reassured him that the submarines would be built years earlier than many defence experts expected.
Asked whether the submarines would arrive before 2038, Mr Dutton said: “I have no doubt we’ll have a nuclear-propelled submarine before that date.”
When the AUKUS agreement was announced, an 18-month process was launched by all three countries to figure out the best way to deliver Australia nuclear submarines.
There is growing concern from defence experts about whether Australia has a big enough military to help maintain stability in the region, and this gap is set to get bigger over the coming years as the country’s population and economy shrinks relative to the rest of Asia.
This may mean Australia will have to spend considerably more than the $44.6 billion – or 2.1 per cent of gross domestic product – it spent last year on the defence budget.
There are also lingering questions about whether Australia is getting value for money after a number of major acquisitions have blown out on time and cost – an issue Mr Dutton has vowed to address since taking over the portfolio last year.
Marcus Hellyer, a senior analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said it would become increasingly difficult for Australia to be able to defend against a major power like China considering that its long-range missiles could reach the mainland.
He said that was why the Australian government was intent on keeping the US committed to the region.
“And ultimately, I think that’s why people like Dutton are kind of ramping up their talk – because it’s that recognition that if the US buggers off, we are very exposed,” Dr Hellyer said.
“So the name of the game at the moment is to keep the US engaged in the western Pacific, keep it committed to the western Pacific – and that means everybody else stepping up and doing their share.”
Labor’s defence spokesman, Brendan O’Connor, said he was not confident about Mr Dutton’s optimistic forecast for the delivery of the first nuclear submarine.
“I think the last nine years has shown that whatever the government says in relation to defence, it’s either been more expensive or protracted in terms of delivery,” he said.
“And so I think the minister is kidding himself if he expects people to believe that this government, given its track record of the last nine years, will deliver the first AUKUS nuclear-propelled submarine before 2040, when many experts are suggesting that is not likely.”
Mr O’Connor, who visited China as a minister in the former Labor government, said the Chinese government had become “more assertive and more aggressive” since Labor was last in government.
“We have agreed with the government that it’s not been so much a change of the [Australian] government as a change of attitudes of China that’s led to some of those problems,” he said.
“We’re open to obviously wanting to resolve these issues if we can. But we will not step back from advancing our views or advancing our principles or advancing our interests in order to seek a better relationship.”
Part two of our series Is Australia Ready For War? will be published on Thursday. It takes a deep look at the Royal Australian Air Force.
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