Premier remains strong despite quarantine, branch-stacking and other blunders

“Teflon Dan” is the sobriquet that Spring Street journalists like to apply to Premier Daniel Andrews.

The moniker speaks of their incredulity that, despite the Victorian Labor government being beset by accumulating problems, voters are still loyally sticking by Andrews putting him on track to win a third term one year from now at the November 2022 state election.

The Age’s Resolve Strategic surveys have shown Labor consistently ahead of the coalition, but it is the most recent opinion polls on Victorian state politics, Newspoll and Roy Morgan which provide eye-catching evidence of the resilience of the Andrews government’s support.

Daniel Andrews has gained the moniker “Teflon Dan” for not taking a hit in the polls despite a series of setbacks.Credit: Justin McManus

Coloured perhaps by the public’s post-lockdown euphoria, the results of both polls suggest that Labor is in a near impregnable position. Newspoll credits the government with a formidable 58-42 point lead on two party preferred terms while Morgan reports the gap at an even larger 59.5-40.5.

If replicated at the election, would see Labor eclipse the “Danslide” result of 2018. It also indicated that Andrews enjoys a handsome approval rating and a strong lead over opposition leader Matthew Guy on the question of preferred premier. Sweetening the result further for Andrews, Newspoll found that 60 per cent of respondents favourably rated his handling of the pandemic. Little wonder that one federal Liberal MP responded to the poll by declaring that it was “just depressing”.

There is good reason, of course, to be cautious about the predictive power of opinion polls. We have to think no further than the 2019 federal election to know that they can be wrong. Even so, there seems no question that the popularity of Andrews remains extraordinarily robust given the challenges his government has encountered over the past 18 months.

In that time, it has lost half a dozen ministers, four of whom fell because of their entanglement in industrial-scale branch stacking. Those same activities are the subject of a current IBAC inquiry which is exposing the dark underbelly of the Labor Party.

There are other significant headaches for the government. Its infrastructure program is facing cost blow outs and delays while the state’s finances reveal mounting deficits and debt. And there is the shadow of the 2020 quarantine debacle and the record-breaking pandemic lockdowns.

What explains Andrews’ political resilience? The first answer is that this is less about the premier or his government per se than the ingrained habit of Victorians supporting the left of centre of politics.

Should Labor win next year’s election, the party will have presided over Spring Street for three quarters of the time since this trend in the state’s voting behaviour began in the early 1980s. The default Labor position is also reflected in federal election results during the same period. In the 15 federal elections since 1980, Victoria has sided with Labor on two party preferred terms on 13 occasions.

Yet, the Andrews government has won admirers in its own right. From the moment it came to office in 2014 it has been an activist administration. This is reflected in two spheres.

First is the gargantuan transport infrastructure program which encompasses a dizzying suite of projects. They include the removal of scores of level crossings, the Melbourne metro rail project, an airport rail link, a suburban rail loop, and an array of road extensions and upgrades.

Second is the government’s adventurous social reform agenda that has featured, for example, it making Victoria the first Australian jurisdiction to successfully introduce a voluntary assisted dying regime, and its pioneering of a process for concluding a treaty with the state’s Indigenous communities.

Victorians might not agree with all aspects of this activity, but they appear to have credited the Andrews government for the fact that it is doing things with power. The extensive legacy that it is building stands in contrast with the minimalist governing style of the federal Coalition government. Indeed, a further factor buttressing Andrews’ popularity is that he provides a counterpoint to Scott Morrison’s inconsequential leadership.

Another ingredient in the resilience of the Andrews government is indeed the premier himself. He is an intriguing and potent combination of political hard man and purposeful reformer. Andrews is the larger than life leader of this state since Jeff Kennett. From all accounts he dominates the decision-making forums of his government. He has an unapologetic crash through approach to criticism, rarely pulling back. He is a skilled performer in the mainstream media and on social media platforms using the latter to woo younger voters.

Andrews’ visibility, which was already high, dramatically escalated during the pandemic. Media analytics show that in 2020 he was the second most prominent politician in the land behind Morrison. Andrews’ handling of the pandemic crisis polarised opinion but few, if any, were left indifferent to him. The baked in majority view of him seems to go something like that he is a tough, decisive and smart leader.

Strong assertive leaders of the ilk of Andrews tend to eventually wear thin with voters who come to want a less domineering style of government. The other moniker that critics try to pin to the premier – “Dictator Dan” – has potential to damage him.

Nor should we overlook the fact that at next year’s election Andrews will be asking voters to extend Labor’s rule to 12 years, which might yet cause the public to blanch. Going by the polls, though, he and his government remain at least at present in remarkably durable shape.

Paul Strangio is associate professor of politics in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University