Confusion on the border might save LNP from Currumbin defeat

The LNP might have suffered a humiliating defeat in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin if there had not been widespread confusion about Labor's decision to close the state's borders earlier this week.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced she would close the borders in a tweet that lacked detail about how the lockdown would affect border communities.

Based on the early vote, The LNP's Laura Gerber was ahead with 48 per cent of the first preference vote.Credit: Facebook

The Currumbin electorate, which abuts the NSW border, hung in the balance on Saturday night, with just 3.5 per cent of the vote counted from the Saturday byelection.

A senior LNP figure said that after a rocky start to the campaign, the party feared the seat had been at real risk of falling to Labor's Kaylee Campradt.

However, messaging about how Queensland's borders would close and confusion about what exemptions would be in place for nearby residents might have pushed the needle back to the right.

Another LNP insider said the party was now confident it would retain Currumbin "based on the numbers coming in from booths, but it will be closer with the postal and pre-poll".

"It only started turning around for us after Palaszczuk stuffed the border closure," the insider said.

The Currumbin byelection was sparked by the resignation of long-serving LNP politician Jann Stuckey, who fell out with her party after voting in favour of decriminalising abortion in 2018.

Ms Stuckey accused the party of bullying and was said to have actively campaigned against the LNP's chosen replacement for the seat, Laura Gerber.

"This was a tough campaign for Laura and her family," Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington said in a statement released on Saturday night.

"The unprovoked attacks by Jann Stuckey on Laura has taken an emotional toll on her family.

"The extraordinary Currumbin byelection is not over yet.

"Because of the impact of the coronavirus, there was a very low voter turnout today and it may be days before we know what the final result is."

Based on the early vote, Ms Gerber was ahead with 48 per cent of the first preference vote.

Meanwhile, Labor was set to claim victory in the Ipswich-based seat of Bundamba, which it has held since the electorate was created in 1992.

With about a quarter of the votes counted, former union official Lance McCallum had gained 42 per cent of the first preference vote.

One Nation candidate Sharon Bell was sitting behind him on about 28 per cent, followed by the LNP with 16 per cent and the Greens in last place on 14 per cent.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party has the best chance of wrangling some votes away from Labor with Bundamba, close to the Ipswich seat once held by Senator Hanson.

One Nation did not run in Bundamba at the 2017 state election, but Senator Hanson famously met with long-serving MP Jo-Ann Miller on the hustings during the campaign.

The Bundamba byelection was triggered with the resignation last month of Ms Miller, who retained the seat with a 21 per cent margin at the last election.

Labor state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell said not enough votes had been counted to be certain about either seat.

The preliminary count wrapped up about 10pm on Saturday, with the official count to begin on Sunday morning.