WA carbon budget has just 12 years of 'business as usual' left: report

Without acting to reduce emissions, Western Australia could use up its Paris Agreement 1.5C-compatible carbon budget within 12 years – but a rapid transitioning to renewables could bring an economic boom, a new report says.

Climate Analytics' Tuesday report calculates a carbon budget for all sectors of the WA economy, from 2018-2050, compatible with the Paris Agreement's goal to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (with 1 degree of warming already reached).

Ningaloo Reef. The IPCC predicts a 70-90 per cent loss of coral reefs at 1.5C warming, and virtually total loss at 2C. Credit: Tourism WA

The WA budget is 950 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. And while the report says if business continues as usual WA will likely use this up in 12 years, with the right policies and technologies the state could spread this budget over the next 30 years.

A Paris Agreement-compatible 2030 target would entail peaking emissions as soon as possible, followed by a steep dive towards a 49 per cent reduction by 2030, reaching zero by 2050.

The report says WA would need to put the power sector at the centre and it could achieve close to 90 per cent renewables in the sector by 2030.

It says at the heart of any plan would need to be emissions from the liquefied natural gas industry, a sector whose emissions are steeply increasing.

If LNG plans go ahead, the report's author forecast the WA industry's emissions would be about 1 billion tonnes to 2050, exceeding the entire budget.

The report says most of the emissions are avoidable, but that WA must regulate and ensure 80 per cent of carbon vented from gas reservoirs is captured and stored; and that the industry phases in replacing natural gas used to liquefy LNG with renewable energy over the next 10 years.

Professor Hare said this was possible now, but the LNG industry would not implement the changes without a carbon price or direct regulation.

He said there was an opportunity to transition the LNG export industry to be a major global producer of green hydrogen, but this would require the state to develop a proactive strategy.

"It would be very unwise and risky for the state government to rely on scenarios promoted by industry which show ongoing increases in LNG demand through to 2040 and beyond, which are clearly not consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals and limiting warming to 1.5C," he said.

"As the Paris Agreement is implemented globally, a decline in the LNG market will likely occur as demand for natural gas in the power sector in Asia, a major source of WA LNG demand, peaks by around 2030 and then declines to close to zero between 2050 and 2060."

Professor Hare said it was dangerous to focus only on an endpoint of net zero emissions by 2050 and not deal with the needs for emissions to be nearly halved by 2030.

He said WA was on the front line of climate impacts and action was crucial to economic and environmental survival.

"Not only is it feasible, it will help the state capture the benefits of the global transition to towards zero carbon, renewable fuels, for which there is vast potential, especially in green hydrogen, wind and solar power," he said.

WA's government has announced so far a non-binding "aspirational" emissions target of zero emissions by 2050 with new project proponents to outline their intentions regarding this. A more detailed state policy is being prepared for release in 2020.

WAtoday asked the government whether it could yet rule in or out a binding 2050 target, interim emissions reduction target, Zero Carbon Act or LNG industry regulation.

Environment Minister Stephen Dawson said the public could still make comments on the policy's issues paper until Friday.

"The Paris Agreement target is a national matter and the McGowan Government calls on the federal government for reassurance that Australia will meet its target," he said.

"As I said at the Environment Ministers meeting with the Commonwealth earlier this month, WA is supportive of the federal government’s target of reducing emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030. But I have called on the Commonwealth to provide us with reassurances that Australia is on track to meet this target."

Peak industry body APPEA's WA director Claire Wilkinson referenced the industry's climate change policy principles and said APPEA supported a national policy that delivered emissions reductions in line with Paris commitments at least cost and facilitated broad-based investment decisions consistent with an international price on carbon.

She said the LNG industry was regulated by the Australian government as all industrial facilities were.

Anti-climate change protesters outside COAG on Friday.

Ms Wilkinson said Australia’s natural gas industry played a role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions "too often overlooked or downplayed in debating issues on principle rather than embracing reality."

"While Australians are concerned about how to reduce emissions at home, we overlook the fact that LNG exports from Australia have the potential to save global emissions equal to over a quarter of the country’s total annual domestic greenhouse gas emissions," she said.

In a report published last week, WAtoday investigated claims from Woodside along the above lines and found that these claims are based on comparisons to coal, rather than renewables.

Climate Analytics and other scientific groups have also challenged international models that valuing gas as a "transition" fuel.

Tuesday's report also follows LNG giant Woodside's investor briefing last week, during which chief executive Peter Coleman said Woodside designed its projects to be viable in light of a possible $40 carbon price.

At the briefing, Woodside also flagged an agreement signed with Greening Australia, to create carbon sinks (large-scale tree planting projects) to offset its share of carbon emissions from reservoir gas venting.

However, reservoir gas only accounts for a small fraction of a project's total emissions.

And the commitment only applies to Woodside’s share of the projects: 17 per cent of the North West Shelf, 13 per cent of Wheatstone, 30.6 per cent of Browse and 75 per cent of Scarborough.

The commitment is expected to offset about 1.2 million tonnes per year, while the life-cycle emissions from Browse and Scarborough, if approved, will be about 90 million tonnes per year.

Woodside CEO Peter Coleman at the investor briefing last week. Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

There was no mention of powering the Burrup Hub LNG plants with renewable energy as Inpex have
announced for its Darwin LNG facility.

The report also comes after the country's energy ministers met in Perth for the Council of Australian Governments' Energy Council meeting on Friday, at which they endorsed a national hydrogen strategy to support the development of the industry in Australia.

As they met, anti-climate change protesters gathered outside the building to lobby for action on climate change, and a group of 54 Australian academics, including prominent conservationist Tim Flannery and former WA premier Carmen Lawrence, released an open letter to the Premier and Cabinet, asking that the Parliament pass a Zero Carbon Act.