Ice king: Why Vladimir Putin wants to conquer the Arctic

As sailors hoisted a Russian flag above the icebreaker Yakutia, the gigantic vessel was hailed by Vladimir Putin as both an economic and military triumph.

The nuclear-powered ship, designed to carve a safe path through ice-covered waters, is the fourth of a new class being built at the Baltic Shipyard in St Petersburg.

The Kremlin’s focus on the Arctic comes as melting ice prompts fresh tensions with the US and Beijing over control of new shipping routes.Credit: AP

Because of Western sanctions imposed over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, its builders had to rely on domestically produced parts instead of imported ones in many cases.

But Yakutia’s real significance lies in what it says about Moscow’s sweeping ambitions for the Arctic.

Along with other ice-breaking ships, the hulking vessel will ply the treacherous waters along Russia’s northern coastline – known collectively as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) – which connects Europe and Asia.

They are clearing the way for a growing number of tankers ferrying oil and gas to China and South Asia – and for more months in the year – providing a crucial economic lifeline to the sanctions-hit Russian economy.

The Kremlin’s focus on the Arctic comes as melting ice, triggered by global warming, prompts fresh tensions with the US and Beijing over control of new shipping routes, fishing rights and military outposts.

“Every icebreaker built at domestic shipyards significantly enhances the safety of Arctic navigation, improves transport accessibility of the region and ensures year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route,” read a message from Putin for the Yakutia’s handover in December.

“The Yakutia will enhance the capabilities of the domestic nuclear fleet, contribute to addressing key multifaceted challenges facing the national economy, and further solidify Russia’s status as a naval power.”

Eight Russian icebreaker ships are now in service, the highest number since the Cold War. By the end of this decade, Rosatom – the nuclear agency that operates them – has set out plans for its fleet to number 17.

In 2022, almost 3.2 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent were pumped out of the polar region – or around 5.5 per cent of global production that year.Credit: AP

Sovcomflot, the Russian state shipping giant, is also building more “Arc7” liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo ships capable of navigating ice on their own.

They are expected to play a growing role in transporting resources out of the Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets regions, adjacent to the Barents and Kara seas, respectively, where about 80 per cent of Russia’s gas and 60 per cent of its oil are produced.

According to the Centre for High North Logistics, transit shipments through the North Sea Route reached a record 3.1 million tonnes in 2024 – most of it crude oil that was shipped to China.

The World Wide Fund for Nature, which opposes drilling in the Arctic due to the risk of environmental destruction to species such as polar bears, seals and walruses, says Russia is by far the largest Arctic producer – but it is by no means alone.

In 2022, almost 3.2 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent were pumped out of the polar region – or around 5.5 per cent of global production that year.

Russia accounted for 2.9 billion barrels, followed by 176 million barrels by the US in Alaska and Norway’s Arctic producing 98 million barrels.

Despite the protestations of green campaigners and some governments, all three countries have plans to increase outputs, experts predicting that Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House will eviscerate any remaining hesitancy in Washington.

For Russia, exploiting the Arctic is a key plank of its economic independence, while for the US, extracting oil in Alaska chimes with Trump’s “America first” policies, says Klaus Dodds, a professor of geopolitics at the Royal Holloway.

“I expect that under Trump, you will see a doubling-down on his previous goal of energy dominance,” Dodds says.

“That is likely to mean more energy extraction in Alaska and far less restraint being shown than you saw under Biden or Obama.

“Like Russia, Trump has a raw focus on issues such as energy security and shipping lanes. A common theme between him and Putin is that they have made clear they are not going to allow others, such as China, to take advantage of a more accessible Arctic.”

This is probably what has animated Trump’s recent fixation with threatening to annex the Danish territory of Greenland, explains Dodds, following attempts by Beijing to establish footholds there.

China’s interests in the region include opening up shipping lanes so that its own companies can take advantage and potentially lay claim to resources such as fish.

The nuclear-powered Yakutia ship, designed to carve a safe path through ice-covered waters, is the fourth of a new class being built at the Baltic Shipyard in St Petersburg.Credit: AP

However, the Arctic region as a whole is also becoming more important militarily as Russia re-establishes bases there, creating a need for the US to reopen radar stations and other monitoring outposts to detect missile launches.

Despite the fanfare, however, many experts believe the potential of the Arctic for both shipping and resources has been overstated.

Navigating passages past Canada or Russia does offer potential alternatives to routes that go via the Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca, but the ice cover makes it unpredictable. Excitement among companies such as BP for offshore oil and gas reserves has waned over the years due to the difficulty of extracting it.

“Long voyage days certainly reduce the economics of the NSR passage, which include icebreaker costs, although lower bunker expenditure due to the shorter distance travelled via the NSR and no need to pay Suez Canal dues helps to balance that out,” said shipbroker Gibson in a 2023 report.

So far, crippling Western sanctions aimed at supply chains and insurance have also slowed Russia’s attempts to build more ice-breaking tankers and open its Arctic LNG 2 project.

“The expectations in the early 2000s of an economic bonanza didn’t really materialise,” says Katarzyna Zysk, a professor of international relations at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.

“But Russia, in particular, still has an ambition to develop the North Sea Route into a major shipping lane between Asia, Europe and North America.”

In the past, Moscow’s ambitions have involved bringing in foreign investment and expertise, she says, with sanctions relating to the Ukraine war making this more difficult – although a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kyiv could change this.

“If there was a change that reopens possibilities, then shipping could become more plausible, more profitable and more safe. But at the moment, things look quite limited.”

For now, like an icebreaker carving a path through frozen seas, Putin’s dream of conquering the Arctic can advance only slowly.

Telegraph, London

The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. Sign up to get it every weekday morning.