Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Lismore, Cowra

Racing in the Takeover Target silks, a Joe Janiak-owned filly is getting closer than ever, says form analyst Shayne O’Cass. This could be the day.

Thoroughbred action heads to Cowra and Lismore in NSW on Sunday.

Respected form analysts Shayne O’Cass and Adam Sherry run the rule over the two country meetings in NSW on Sunday.

Check out what caught their eye at Lismore and Cowra.

BEST BET

Race 4 No. 12: QIJI BELLEZZA

Went within a nose of breaking her maiden status at Ipswich last start. Third-up now and finds herself with a great draw.

NEXT BEST

Race 3 No. 3: TIME TO TARGET

Racing in the Takeover Target silks, the Joe Janiak-owned filly has been runner-up twice in his three starts and is getting closer than ever.

VALUE

Race 1 No 1. ARLINGTON VALLEY

Only won 1 from 20 but is very fit and so long as he is close enough at the turn, he can forge a rare win.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,6

Race 6: 1,2,3,12

Race 7: 2,4,6

Race 8: 4,9,10,11

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Matthew McGuren is going to popular to win today’s Lismore TAB Jockeys Challenge and rightly so.

Qiji Bellezza is Shayne O’Cass’s best for the Lismore card.

BEST BETS WITH ADAM SHERRY: COWRA

BEST BET

Race 1, No. 3 ALPHA GO

Promising gelding who is well weighted and will be fitter for his first-up run. Will be on-pace

and tough to beat.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No. 3 ROYAL THUNDER

Led all-the-way under a big weight at Canberra last start. Gets nice weight relief here and

will give this a real shake.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No. 12 LOBURN LASS

Nice effort when resuming from a spell at Tuncurry. Will appreciate the step up in distance

and drawn to get an ideal run.

QUADDIE:

Race 5: 2, 3, 5, 11

Race 6: 2, 3, 8, 10

Race 7: 1, 1, 3

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 5

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW:

Blaike McDougall went to the top of Australian Jockey’s Premiership with four winners this

week and he can extend his lead with several top chances.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

Tony Newing can start the day on a winning note with Alpha Go. Loburn Lass and Camp Rifle are also terrific chances.

Adam Sherry is learning towards Alpha Go as his best bet at Cowra.

INSIDE MAIL WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: LISMORE

RACE 1

Arlington Valley has so far only been able to win once in his 20 starts with three placings but he is frequently close enough at the end of his races. On top of that, the John Shelton trained galloper is a very fit horse and could easily crack it for another one today. Anatolian Charm has run third at his last three and likewise is fit and in the right style of race again. Go well. Cheers To Won broke his maiden two runs ago and this is a Class 1 & Maiden so he is well placed.

BET: ARLINGTON VALLEY WIN

RACE 2

Fire In The Hole is a Matthew Dunn trained son of Spirit Of Boom resuming here for his second campaign off a recent trial win at the Gold Coast. Did enough at the first preparation to warrant close inspection here. Jett Aystin is up and running and has placed at three of his four starts, two of those are seconds, so he is not hard to find and easy to like. Gold King resumes in this bearing in mind that his best run was on debut. Market watch advised.

BET: FIRE IN THE HOLE WIN, QUINELLA 1,6

RACE 3

Time To Target is owned by Joe Janiak and races in the colours of his champion, Takeover Target. This filly is trained by Jim Varvis and has raced three times for two seconds – they are in fact her last two runs so she couldn’t be closer to breaking through. Continuum is still a maiden after 15 starts but he is way down in class today having run in town at his last two. Will get there one day and this could be it. She Can Sing will be hard to hold out on her debut run.

BET: TIME TO TARGET WIN, BOX TRIFECTA 1,3,5,10

RACE 4

Qiji Belezza has come back in great shape this preparation with consecutive placings over the border at the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich. Has a top local rider to guide her today and she is the one to beat. Somewhat surprising that Miss Pierpoint has not yet been able to win at least one race. The talent is there but she hasn’t always had things go her way. Maks genuine each-way appeal. Blackwater Bronn is a work in progress but is heading the right way.

BET: QIJI BELEZZA WIN

RACE 5

The Matthew Dunn trained filly Shanjomi got off to the perfect start with an impressive debut win at Ballina. Raced hard on the speed that day and that is no disadvantage at this track most days. Harder here of course but seems able to take the next step. Her big obstacle however is Don’t Cry Mama who has her first run for the astute Daniel Want here with the added value of Ben Looker to ride from a very good barrier. Stablemates Magic Smile and Special Union have claims.

BET: SHANJIMO WIN, QUINELLA 1,6

RACE 6

Sniperess is another of the Matthew Dunn trained team headed to Lismore today. This Darby Racing mare has been tuned-up for her return with two trials but more importantly perhaps is that she has drawn a great barrier so should get her chance. Safely Home was building up to that last start win at Ballina and did it quite comfortably in the end. Has to go to a Class 1 now of course but she is a progressive type in a good yard. Great Marlow will be fitter for the first-up run at Coffs.

BET: SNIPERESS WIN, QUINELLA 3,12

RACE 7

Ballina gelding Jackspratt is clearly in fine fettle at the moment having won his last two at home; the January 3 win came with a margin of over four-lengths. Best of all, he is a leader or at least an on-pacer, so he is at the right track to give himself a grand chance of bagging a hat-trick. Social Order is a lightly-raced NZ-bred mare with a tidy record of seven starts for a win and four placings. The Sunshine Coast mare arrives here an encouraging first-up fifth at Ipswich and has won second-up. Sweeping The Board and Lucap are in contention.

BET: JACKSPRATT WIN, QUINELLA 2,6

RACE 8

Matthew Dunn has a fantastic hand to play in the last race, most races in fact, but in this he could have as many of three horses that any of which could win without surprising. Chief among the trio is Hollywood Dreaming, a daughter of Hampton Court, who has won twice and finished second twice in her eight starts. Stablemate Maspoeta has only won once in 13 starts but the More Than Ready son has nine placings and six of those are seconds. Point is, you would think he medals today. Dunn’s ‘other’ horse is Uprise who is himself nearly always thereabouts.

BET: HOLLYWOOD DREAMING, BOX TRIFECTA 4,9,10,11

Adam Sherry has made Loburn Lass his value bet on the tricky Cowra program.

INSIDE MAIL WITH ADAM SHERRY: COWRA

RACE 1

Alpha Go showed good form last campaign with a win in between two placings. Won a

Wyong trial recently in good fashion nicely weighted here. Looks hard to beat. Mandalong

Roman scored back-to-back wins at Gosford before a third to Smart Image at Canterbury

Dec 11. Has plenty of weight. Choccy Gaf was good winning at Moruya to end last campaign.

Better than recent efforts at Rosehill and Moruya.

BET STRATEGY: ALPHA GO TO WIN

RACE 2

Loburn Lass boxed on for third at Inverell over 1050m when off the bit from the 600m. She

will appreciate stepping up to 1375m. Will get an ideal run from the good gate. Grey Mantra

is resuming from a spell and trialled nicely at Warwick Farm recently. Choosday Nights is

resuming from a long spell. Nice third at to end her last campaign and handy trial at

Hawkesbury last month.

BET STRATEGY: LOBURN LASS TO WIN. QUINELLA/TRIFECTA 6, 7, 10, 12

RACE 3

The Burning turned in a handy effort on debut to finish a length fourth behind Remorseless

at Goulburn on Oct 6. Resuming here without a trial but drawn to settle prominently and

looks hard to beat. Shiny Agent has placed at his past three starts, two of them this

campaign and he will be in the finish again. Maggies Time was held up when sixth at

Wellington last time out. Made good ground the third at Gilgandra.

BET STRATEGY: THE BURNING TO WIN

RACE 4

Byzantium was caught in the shadows of the post after racing outside the leader when

second at Wellington last start. Racing well and has the early pace to offset the wide gate

and will run another cheeky race. French Giggle scored a good win at Narromine before a

close third at Gilgandra as favourite last start. Maria Elisa has claims on Warren win three

starts back.

BET STRATEGY: BYZANTIUM EACH-WAY. QUINELLA/TRIFECTA 1, 2, 3, 10

RACE 5

Old Harbour raced three-wide and kept trying when second behind Kaipaki when giving

away 3kg at Wagga on December 24. Scored a nice win at Narromine two starts earlier and

will give another strong account of himself. Camp Rifle has been good in finishing second at

his last two starts during a Queensland trip and can keep the positive form going. Athena’s

Lad stormed home from near last to win at Narromine Nov 26 and was slightly lame when

fourth at Wagga last start.

BET STRATEGY: OLD HARBOUR EACH-WAY

RACE 6

Tessera scored his first win in five years when leading all-the-way at Kembla last Saturday

but won’t have to wait that long to win his next race. He has raced in strong company for

most of his career since winning first two starts. Will roll forward from the good barrier and

be in the finish again. Up Trumpz battled away for fourth at Canterbury last start and won’t

be far away again. What The Fuss and I Am Captain are not without a chance.

BET STRATEGY: TESSERA EACH-WAY. QUINELLA/TRIFECTA 2, 3, 8, 10

RACE 7

Royal Thunder is coming off a strong all-the-way win from Globalize under 59.5kg at

Canberra Dec 13. Good effort when second in an Open Handicap at Wagga Dec 7. Upper

House has won two his last three including the Ted Ryder Cup at Wagga last start. Clearly

the main danger. Havaduel is racing well and can handle the step up in grade. National

Guard is capable of a solid run first-up.

BET STRATEGY: ROYAL THUNDER TO WIN. QUINELLA/TRIFECTA 1, 3, 5, 6

RACE 8

Wicked Willy got well back and caught in the worst part of the track when sixth to Gorush

Lightning on a heavy track at Moruya Jan 4. Drawn out a little which will suit and he can roll

forward and take up a good spot. Kathaire won well at Gundagai two starts back before a

big jump in grade when sixth to Grave Bay at Nowra. Back to right grade here. Nicola has

drawn wide but is racing well.

BET STRATEGY: WICKED WILLY TO WIN.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Lismore, Cowra