NRL Lowdown: How is your team placed for the 2017 NRL finals?
HOW is your team tracking in the charge to the finals? Our team of experts run the eye over every NRL side as the business end of the season looms.
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THE finals are looming large as the business end of the season approaches and there are 13 teams still in the hunt to play finals football.
As the regular season heats up, we’ll be checking in with every club every week to check their chances of making it into September.
BLOG: Rolling coverage of the latest league news
INJURIES: Who’s in, who’s out?
1ST: MELBOURNE STORM, 30 (+120)
WEEKEND WRAP
Melbourne had their last bye of the season and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Their Origin stars got a chance to recharge their batteries ahead of the run home.
INS AND OUTS
Jordan McLean and Curtis Scott are both expected to return this week — Scott may have a place in the team for the rest of the season due to Cheyse Blair’s year-ending ankle injury.
THE RUN HOME
Raiders (away), Sea Eagles, Cowboys (away), Roosters, Knights (away), Rabbitohs, Raiders
PROGNOSIS
It’s all smooth sailing for the Storm, who are well placed to claim back to back minor premierships.
— Nick Campton
2ND: SYDNEY ROOSTERS, 28 (+53)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Roosters had a valuable bye weekend to rest up but face a hard task getting back into the NRL grind without two of their stars. The loss of fullback Michael Gordon and hooker Jake Friend to injury means a roster shake-up for the second-place side at the worst possible time of the season.
INS AND OUTS
Blake Ferguson, Latrell Mitchell and Connor Watson are all in the frame to replace Gordon at fullback while he sits out more than a month with a torn pectoral. Replacing Friend, who is out for a month with a broken hand, will prove harder for coach Trent Robinson although Watson did well when he played a full game in that position earlier in the season.
THE RUN HOME
Knights, Cowboys, Sea Eagles (away), Storm (away), Tigers, Sharks (away), Titans.
PROGNOSIS
The Roosters are yet to beat a top-four side this season and without two of their spine the wait might continue. Supposedly easier fixtures against the Knights and Cowboys will give way to the likes of the in-form Sea Eagles and Storm. The Tricolours have shown all season they can mix it with the best but those devastating performances have been tempered with inconsistent showings as well. Consistency will be key for the Roosters but that will be hard to find without the steady hands of Gordon and Friend.
— Dave Campbell
3RD: MANLY SEA EAGLES, 26 (+87)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Tigers provided Manly with a few anxious moments but in the end the Sea Eagles got the job done, running out 28-16 winners with three second half tries.
INS AND OUTS
No further injuries for the Sea Eagles, but they may have found a long-term backrower in towering former Bulldog Shaun Lane. A giant of a man, Lane scored his first try for the club against the Tigers and while he’s led a nomadic existence over the last few seasons he’s got plenty of ability and could be a real wildcard heading into the finals.
RUN HOME
Dragons (away), Storm (away), Roosters, Tigers (away), Bulldogs (away), Warriors (away), Panthers
PROGNOSIS
Manly have a top four spot at their mercy. Of their last six matches, they will be favourites in at least four of them and could easily be riding four straight wins into the first week of the finals.
— Nick Campton
4TH: BRISBANE BRONCOS, 26 (+68)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Broncos bounced back from their big loss to Melbourne with an unconvincing 34-22 defeat of the Knights in Newcastle. The Knights challenged Brisbane but the Broncos did enough to keep their spot in the top four.
INS AND OUTS
Maroons duo Josh McGuire and Matt Gillett sat out the Knights game following their heavy State of Origin commitments but will return against Canterbury on Thursday night. Newly re-signed Kodi Nikorima is challenging Ben Hunt for the No. 7 jersey and could return to the side.
THE RUN HOME
Bulldogs, Eels (away), Titans (away), Sharks, Dragons, Eels, Cowboys (away)
PROGNOSIS
The Broncos will be looking to mount a late charge towards the finals after getting through the dreaded State of Origin period. Anthony Milford is back from a shoulder injury and Darius Boyd will return in a couple of weeks. With their Origin players well rested, Brisbane will be a premiership contender if Wayne Bennett can get their halves firing.
— Travis Meyn
5TH: CRONULLA SHARKS, 26 (+65)
WEEKEND WRAP
Cronulla could have further cemented their place in the top two with a win over the Titans. Instead, they’ve slipped all the way down to fifth after crashing to a 30-10 defeat on the Gold Coast.
INS AND OUTS
Shane Flanagan made the tactical decision to rest James Maloney against the Titans and also switched Gerard Beale to fullback and Luke Lewis and Andrew Fifita to the bench. He’ll be hoping that this tactical move pays dividends in the long run — after a gruelling Origin series, his Blues stars needed a breather.
Jayden Brailey is expected to return in the next few weeks and James Segeyaro made a comeback off the bench over the weekend, meaning Cronulla’s hooking crisis has reached an end.
RUN HOME
Rabbitohs, Warriors (away), Raiders, Broncos (away), Cowboys (away), Roosters, Knights (away)
PROGNOSIS
Cronulla will still fancy their chances of finishing in the top four. They have a chance of running the table and winning all six of their remaining games, but their challenging stretch is the Queensland double and then the Roosters in Round 25. If they can take out their title rivals in those three matches, a lofty finish will be all but secured.
— Nick Campton
6TH: NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS, 26 (+56)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Cowboys claimed a third-straight win without star playmaker Johnathan Thurston, dominating the Rabbitohs in Cairns. Sparked by livewire hooker Jake Granville and unheralded prop Scott Bolton, North Queensland ran out convincing 23-10 winners to continue an impressive run of form.
INS AND OUTS
Te Maire Martin has slotted nicely into the halves following Johnathan Thurston’s absence and will continue to improve his combination with Morgan as the season wears on. Winger Antonio Winterstein (calf) left the match early and didn’t return, which could open the door for young flyer Gideon Gela-Mosby or Javid Bowen to earn an NRL recall.
THE RUN HOME
Warriors, Roosters (away), Storm, Panthers (away), Sharks, Tigers (away), Broncos
PROGNOSIS
For a side missing their star playmaker and forward pack leader, the Cowboys are doing a remarkable job to stay within touch of the top four. They should maintain that unlikely push for at least another week with a win at home over a Warriors side missing star playmaker Shaun Johnson on Saturday night.
— Dominic Burke
7TH: PARRAMATTA EELS, 24 (-19)
WEEKEND WRAP
Parramatta collected two points due to the bye.
INS AND OUTS
Injuries have been a bigger factor at Parramatta this season than many may realise — they’ll be welcoming back Frank Pritchard, Josh Hoffman, Manu Ma’u and Tim Mannah for Round 20, and that depth makes their recent run of form all the more impressive. Hoffman will likely be relegated to reserve grade but Ma’u is one of their best players and his inclusion is a timely boost.
THE RUN HOME
Tigers (away), Broncos, Bulldogs (away), Knights, Titans, Broncos (away), Rabbitohs
PROGNOSIS
Five of Parramatta’s last six games will be at ANZ Stadium, an advantage that cannot be underestimated. Even though the Eels are counted as the away team in the matches against Parramatta and Canterbury, playing at their adopted home ground is a real boost. Apart from the two clashes with Brisbane, the Eels would be confident of victory in all their remaining games and are well placed to make the finals for the first time since 2009.
— Nick Campton
8TH: ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS, 22 (+52)
WEEKEND WRAP
St George Illawarra’s finals hopes are under siege following Friday’s Golden Point loss to the Raiders in Canberra.
The Dragons had their chances to win, but couldn’t seal the match in the closing stages.
The one-point defeat has dropped Paul McGregor’s men to eighth position on the ladder, just two points ahead of ninth placed Penrith.
INS AND OUTS
Centre Euan Aitken is expected to return from a hamstring injury against Manly on Sunday.
THE RUN HOME
Manly, Knights (Away), Rabbitohs, Titans, Broncos (Away), Panthers (Away), Bulldogs.
PROGNOSIS
The Dragons have dropped their past two games to lose touch with the top teams. McGregor’s men have a decent run home, but they must rediscover their form to make the finals and feature prominently.
The next month is crucial for the Dragons. They must fire or face the prospect of their season being over.
— Matt Logue
9TH: PENRITH PANTHERS, 20 (21)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Panthers kept their finals hopes alive with a crucial 34-22 win against the Warriors over in New Zealand. Young halfback Nathan Cleary was masterful as he amassed a 22-point haul, which included three tries, two try assists and five goals. He controlled the game with maturity beyond his years and wasn’t fazed about leading his team around the park without his more experienced halves partner Matt Moylan.
INS AND OUTS
Five-eighth Matt Moylan missed the weekend’s clash with a hamstring injury and Tyrone May stepped up to fill the void. After a shaky start, which included being caught with the ball on the last tackle, the 21-year old bounced back from that early hiccup to finish the game with a try on debut. Trent Merrin suffered a medial ligament injury and will miss 6-8 weeks — look for Moses Leota or Viliame Kikay to slot in on the bench and Tim Browne or Leilani Latu to start at lock. Bryce Cartwright isn’t expected back until round 23.
THE RUN HOME
Titans, Bulldogs, Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders (away), Dragons, Sea Eagles (away)
PROGNOSIS
After starting hot favourites, a five-game losing streak had punters putting a line through their season early. But they managed to string a few wins together and all of a sudden they were back in the hunt for a finals spot. They get a chance to build some winning momentum with their next four games at home. Having said that, the Titans this week will prove a tough ask after they disposed of the premiers on Saturday.
— Fatima Kdouh
10TH: CANBERRA RAIDERS, 18 (27)
WEEKEND WRAP
Canberra found themselves in a must-win situation at home to St George and were fortunate to scrape through with an 18-14 golden point victory. Aidan Sezer hit an enormous 40-20 in the first period of additional time, allowing Elliott Whitehead to collect a Dave Taylor offload and dive over for the winner.
INS AND OUTS
Clay Priest provided a masterstroke for the Raiders faithful with his matchwinning play in extra-time, despite the fact he wasn’t in the team. A fortnight ago the gritty forward told Ricky Stuart he wanted to play reserve grade for feeder-club Mounties to up his game time and earn some crucial match fitness. This paved the way for Dave Taylor’s return to the top grade, and following the Coal-Train’s heroics at the death, Priest is likely to remain out of the 17 in a full strength side.
He may earn a short-term reprieve on the bench with Josh Papalii to sit out two weeks for a shoulder charge on Josh Dugan. Expect Sia Soliola to move to Papalii’s left edge, with Joe Tapine or Luke Bateman to start at lock.
THE RUN HOME
Storm, Rabbitohs (Away), Sharks (Away), Warriors (Away), Panthers, Knights (Away), Storm (Away)
PROGNOSIS
Since round 13, the Raiders have earned just three repeat sets to their opposition’s 28. The inability to build pressure has cruelled the side for some time, and without sharp improvement will cost them any hope of a miraculous run to the finals.
Friday’s win gives the Green Machine slight hope of playing finals footy, however a brutal run home makes their prospects highly improbable.
Coupled with this, the three teams they will vie for a finals spot with — Eels, Dragons, Panthers — have arguably the easiest runs home to end the season.
— Tim Williams
11TH: NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS, 18 (-38)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Warriors lost to Penrith 34-22 but the result almost seems insignificant when compared to Shaun Johnson’s season-ending knee injury.
New Zealand only had an outside chance of making the finals regardless, but that chance has seemingly dwindled into the abyss without the talismanic Johnson.
INS AND OUTS
Ata Hingano is expected to replace Johnson in the halves and while he’s a talented prospect, he can’t replicate what Johnson does for this team. Ryan Hoffman will return in a couple of weeks, but the Warriors could survive an injury to any player except Johnson and his absence casts a pall over the entire side.
THE RUN HOME
Cowboys (away), Sharks, Knights (away), Raiders, Rabbitohs (away), Sea Eagles, Tigers (away)
PROGNOSIS
Last weeken’s loss to Penrith was crucial. If New Zealand had managed to squeak out a victory, they would have been just two points outside the top eight. As it stands now, they’re slipping to the bottom of the chasing pack. A loss to the Cowboys this weekend could be the dagger in their finals dreams.
— Nick Campton
12TH: GOLD COAST TITANS, 18 (-42)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Titans registered arguably their best win of the season with a 30-10 victory against reigning premiers Cronulla is horrible conditions on the Gold Coast. It was the Titans’ third straight win to keep them in finals contention.
INS AND OUTS
The Titans have found some continuity in their team and the results are starting to show. Jarryd Hayne played his most committed game at fullback and Leivaha Pulu returned after having his appendix removed. Origin trio Hayne, Jarrod Wallace and Nathan Peats were strong again. Chris McQueen (neck) is hoping to return soon.
THE RUN HOME
Panthers (away), Tigers, Broncos, Dragons (away), Eels (away), Bulldogs, Roosters (away)
PROGNOSIS
Where there is life there is hope. The Titans are long shots to make the finals but they are still a mathematical chance and don’t have the worst draw to finish. A win against the Panthers on Saturday would be huge with a home game against the lowly Tigers to follow.
— Travis Meyn
13TH: CANTERBURY BULLDOGS, 18 (-59)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Bulldogs had the bye but the Titans win over Cronulla meant they slipped down to 13th spot.
INS AND OUTS
James Graham isn’t expected back until Round 21 but don’t be surprised if he his named on Tuesday. Greg Eastwood is slated to return in Round 22.
THE RUN HOME
Broncos (away), Panthers (away), Eels, Rabbitohs (away), Sea Eagles, Titans (away), Dragons (away)
PROGNOSIS
The Bulldogs still have a chance of making the finals but it would require a serious improvement on anything they’ve showed in the first 20 weeks of the season. Such a task is not impossible, but it would be extremely difficult.
— Nick Campton
14TH: SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS, 16 (-42)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Rabbitohs let their slim finals chances slip away with a disappointing 23-10 loss against the Cowboys on Sunday. It was the same old story, lacking execution in attack and error riddled. Adam Reynolds struggled to build pressure off his boot and forward Sam Burgess was disappointing by his standards.
INS AND OUTS
In a cruel blow, they lost fullback Greg Inglis for the season in round one with a knee injury. Joining him in the casualty ward are Hymal Hunt who is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and Siosifa Talakai who is out with an ankle injury.
THE RUN HOME
Sharks (away), Raiders, Dragons (away), Bulldogs, Warriors, Storm (away), Eels (away)
PROGNOSIS
The Bunnies all but kissed their season goodbye in Cairns and look set to miss another finals series. The power game which helped deliver a premiership in 2014 has all but abandoned Michael Maguire’s side in recent times and when you add to that the lack of creativity in attack and a stack of errors, winning footy games was never going to be an easy task. A shining light has been the emergence of young gun forward Angus Crichton, who has been best on ground for the Bunnies almost week in week out.
— Fatima Kdouh
15TH: WESTS TIGERS, 12 (-169)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Tigers turned up to Brookvale Oval looking like a willing football side. They were impressive in the opening forty minutes, taking a 10-8 lead into halftime. They did well to absorb much of the pressure heaped on them but eventually their line cracked and the Sea Eagles came out on top with a 28-16 win.
INS AND OUTS
Young hooker Jacob Liddle suffered a dislocated shoulder against the Manly. The untimely injury could mean he misses the rest of the season. This will likely see Matt McIlwrick replace him in the starting number nine jumper and could open up a spot for Jack Littlejohn on the bench.
THE RUN HOME
Eels, Titans (away), Panthers (away), Sea Eagles, Roosters (away), Cowboys, Warriors
PROGNOSIS
The Tigers’ season was punctuated with off-field drama. From the Tim Simona saga, Jason Taylor’s sacking and the contract drama surrounding the club’s ‘big four’, performing on the footy field felt like a footnote to their season. But with Ivan Cleary at the helm they have managed to remain competitive in matches, even if the results haven’t gone their way. They face a tough run home but should avoid the spoon.
— Fatima Kdouh
16TH: NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS, 8 (-180)
WEEKEND WRAP
The Knights had their moments against Brisbane but the inexperience cost them badly again and a 34-22 loss was another match that slipped through their fingers.
INS AND OUTS
Shaun Kenny-Dowall is expected to make his club debut this weekend, possibly in relief of the concussed Peter Mata’utia at left centre. No other changes are expected.
THE RUN HOME
Roosters (away), Dragons, Warriors (home), Eels, Storm, Raiders, Sharks
PROGNOSIS
A third-straight wooden spoon seems unavoidable. Reinforcements will arrive next season but if Newcastle can jag one win in their last six matches they’ll be defying expectations.
— Nick Campton
Originally published as NRL Lowdown: How is your team placed for the 2017 NRL finals?
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