Do teams always win after their coach has been sacked?

WHEN your coach gets sacked, you win the next week. That’s how the old saying goes. But is there any truth to it?

Coach Matthew Elliott jokingly strangles himself with his tie at the start of the press conference following Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles NRL game at CUA Stadium in Penrith, west of Sydney.

IT’S one of those old rugby league sayings up there with “you have to lose a grand final before you win one”, “defence wins premierships” and “get ‘em onside!”.

If you sack your coach, you are guaranteed a win the next week.

It doesn’t matter if you’ve lost 18 of your last 15, doesn’t matter if you’ve got so many injuries the ball boys are sitting on the bench, it doesn’t matter if your star halfback is actually a prop forward with big dreams and irrational confidence — sack your coach and you’ll get the W.

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Jason Taylor has been sent away to the farm and the Tigers are playing unbeaten Melbourne this weekend. What are the odds of interim coach Andrew Webster, former leader of the Connecticut Wildcats, pulling off the upset?

Let’s take a look at how teams in the NRL era have gone once they let their coach head off and if this piece of rugby league wisdom stands the test of time.

Adelaide Rams, Round 11 1998

Coaching change: Rod Reddy to Dean Lance.

Did they win: Yes

Super League was a crazy time. They put a team in the rugby league hotbed of Adelaide and things went about as well as you’d expect. The Rams survived the merger of the leagues but struggled in the 20-team competition of 1998. Rod Reddy led this motley crew and he was sacked after a 10-2 loss to Parramatta in Round 10. The Rams were 1-9 at the time and had only scored more than 20 points once. Dean Lance took over and the Rams came good, beating Penrith 35-18 at home in front of a crowd of 5000 maniacs. They were wound up at season’s end.

Bring back the Adelaide Rams.

South Sydney, Round 19, 1998

Coaching change: Steve Martin to Craig Coleman

Did they win: No

The Rabbitohs will feature on this list a lot. Martin was let go after the club had three wins from 18 matches and was replaced by Craig Coleman. The Bunnies were belted 46-10 by the Raiders in Coleman’s first match and finished 18th. Coleman later made coaching history when he was sacked less than two weeks before the season began in 2003.

The Rabbitohs struggled in the first years on the NRL.

Manly, Round 8, 1999

Coaching change: Bob Fulton to Peter Sharp

Did they win: Yes

Fulton coached Manly from 1983 to 1988 and again from 1993 to early 1999 but after the 1997 grand final defeat to Newcastle it was all downhill. The Sea Eagles had lost all seven of their matches to start the 1999 season and Fulton lost his job as a result. Assistant Peter Sharp took over and steered the club to a 12-6 win over Parramatta on debut.

Change helped Manly in 1999.

St George Illawarra, Round 21, 2000

Coaching change: David Waite to Andrew Farrar

Did they win: Yes

This was a strange one. Waite had steered the Dragons to the grand final the year before and while they had not occupied the same lofty heights in 2000, a 9-11 record after 20 matches was nothing to sneeze at. But Waite was shown the door and replaced by former Illawarra coach Andrew Farrar, who steered the team to a 36-24 win over Newcastle in his debut match with the club.

Farrar took over the Dragons in 2000.

Melbourne, Round 8, 2001

Coaching change: Chris Anderson to Mark Murray

Did they win: No

Anderson took the storm to a remarkable premiership in 1999 but was gone less than 18 months later after starting the 2001 season with two wins and six losses from eight matches. He was replaced by Mark Murray and the Storm went down 18-16 to Brisbane in his first match in charge. Murray failed to make the finals in 2001 and 2002, the only times in Storm history they’ve failed to make the playoffs (apart from 2010, but you know what was up there.)

Mark Murray’s Melbourne missed the finals two years in a row.

North Queensland, Round 12, 2001

Coaching change: Tim Sheens to Murray Hurst

Did they win: No

The Tim Sheens era just didn’t really work for North Queensland and they finally pulled the pin in 2001 after the Cowboys had two wins and a draw from their first 11 matches. Murray Hurst took over but it didn’t help matters — North Queensland lost to Newcastle 42-34 in his first match in charge.

Murray Hurst was on a hiding to nothing.

North Queensland, Round 4, 2002

Coaching change: Murray Hurst to Graham Murray

Did they win: No

Poor old Murray Hurst. He coached the Cowboys for 18 matches and had four wins and a draw to show for it. North Queensland gave him the old heave-ho after the Cowboys lost their first three matches in 2002 and were outscored 120-34. Graham Murray took over but things did not improve, the Warriors smashed the Cowboys 50-20 in his first match as coach.

Graham Murray took over the Cowboys in 2002.

South Sydney, Round 14, 2004

Coaching change: Paul Langmack to Arthur Kitinas

Did they win: Yes

The Rabbitohs teams of the early 2000s were perhaps the biggest pack of battlers in modern rugby league history. Langmack took over just before the 2003 season began and had three wins in his debut season. He was sacked after landing two wins and a draw from the first 11 matches in 2004. Arthur Kitinas took over and the Bunnies bounced back, recording a shock 28-26 win over Melbourne in his first match in charge on the back of a stellar performance from Joe Williams.

Kitinas helped the Rabbitohs to a shock victory over Melbourne.

New Zealand, Round 13, 2004

Coaching change: Daniel Anderson to Tony Kemp

Did they win: Yes

Anderson guided the Warriors to the 2002 grand final and the 2003 preliminary final but things went arse up in 2004 and the club lose eight of their first 11 matches. A 58-6 loss to the Roosters was the final straw and Anderson was out the door, replaced by Tony Kemp. Kemp did the job, steering the team to a 20-14 win over Canberra on debut.

Tony Kemp couldn’t help the Warriors in 2004.

Parramatta, Round 11, 2006

Coaching change: Brian Smith to Jason Taylor

Did they win: No

Jason Taylor got his start in the NRL after Brian Smith was fired following a 2-9 start to the season by Parramatta. This was the year after Smith had steered the club to a minor premiership and a preliminary final. A 30-20 loss to Penrith got Taylor’s coaching career off to a dodgy start but he eventually made history when the Eels scraped into the finals in eighth spot, making him the first replacement coach to lead a team to finals football. The Eels were beaten 12-6 by minor premiers Melbourne and eliminated in the first week.

Jason Taylor in happier times.

Sydney Roosters, Round 18, 2007

Coaching change: Chris Anderson to Brad Fittler

Did they win: Yes

Anderson, a two-time premiership winner with two different clubs, is one of two men to leave a club mid-season twice in the NRL era. This time the Roosters won just five of their first 16 games and following a 56-0 defeat to Manly, Anderson stood down and was replaced by Brad Fittler. The Roosters rebounded straight away, beating Cronulla 23-12 in Fittler’s debut and scoring a draw and three wins from his first five matches, which included a victory over eventual premiers Melbourne.

Brad Fittler, NRL coach was a thing that happened.

North Queensland, Round 10, 2008

Coaching change: Graham Murray to Ian Millward

Did they win: No

North Queensland have sacked their coach mid-season three times, the equal most of any club in the NRL era. This time it was Graham Murray who got the bullet after the club won three of their first 10. Ian Millward took over and the Cowboys lost 19-18 to Penrith. Millward lost 13 of 14 games he coached that season, which included a nine-match losing streak.

Ian Millward had a tough time of it in North Queensland.

Newcastle, Round 22, 2009

Coaching change: Brian Smith to Rick Stone

Did they win: Yes

Smith had signed with the Roosters for 2010 so the Knights let him go after a 40-8 loss to Parranatta in Round 22. Newcastle were still in finals contention and beat Melbourne 26-14 the next week under the tutelage of Rick Stone. Newcastle made the finals in seventh spot and were knocked out by the Bulldogs in the first week of the playoffs.

Brian Smith had an unusual exit from the Knights in 2009.

Cronulla, Round 19, 2010

Coaching change: Ricky Stuart to Shane Flanagan

Did they win: No

Stuart’s Sharks had five wins and 12 losses when he finished up late in the season. Shane Flanagan was put in charge but things didn’t improve right away and the Sharks lost 20-13 to Canberra the following week.

Rickt Stuart finished up at the Sharks in 2010.

Canterbury, Round 19, 2011

Coaching change: Kevin Moore to Jim Dymock

Did they win: No

Kevin Moore has the right to feel a little aggrieved about his sacking. The Bulldogs had seven wins and nine losses when he was punted in Round 18, which isn’t a great record but it’s certainly not the worst. He was replaced by Jim Dymock but the Bulldogs kept losing, suffering a 36-12 defeat to the Warriors.

Kevin Moore was punted in 2011.

Penrith, Round 16, 2011

Coaching change: Matthew Elliott to Steve Georgallis

Did they win: Yes

Elliott had taken Penrith to second on the ladder in 2010 but was gone midway through the following season as the team lost eight of their first 13 matches. Assistant coach Steve Georgallis took over and scored 30-20 win over North Queensland in his debut.

Steve Georgallis had a bit of success during his brief time with Penrith.

Parramatta, Round 21, 2012

Coaching change: Stephen Kearney to Brad Arthur

Did they win: Yes

Stephen Kearney had a devil of a time at the Eels, losing 14 of his first 18 matches in charge, but did land an upset win over Melbourne in his final game before he was replaced by Brad Arthur. Arthur kept the good vibes going as the Eels smashed Brisbane 42-22.

Brad Arthur’s first stint with Parramatta got off to a winning note.

New Zealand, Round 25, 2012

Coaching change: Brian McLennan to Tony Iro

Did they win: No

McLennan went 8-14 and a six-match losing streak late in the season saw him shipped out in his first year on the job. He was replaced by Tony Iro for the final two matches of the season and the Warriors went down in both, including a 38-6 defeat to the Dragons first up. Iro was not retained for 2013.

Tony Iro had a rough start to his coaching career.

Canberra, Round 24, 2013

Coaching change: David Furner to Andrew Dunemann

Did they win: No

The Raiders were only 10-11 when Furner was sacked but they were on a three-game losing streak that included a 68-4 loss to Melbourne at home. Assistant coach Andrew Dunemann was appointed but the Raiders lost their first match under his care 36-22 to Manly and dropped their last two matches of the season.

Andrew Dunemann was winless in his three matches as Raiders coach.

New Zealand Warriors, Round 6, 2014

Coaching change: Matthew Elliott to Andrew McFadden

Did they win: No

Elliott was sacked mid-season for the second time in his NRL career, this time after only five matches of the 2014 season. The Warriors were 2-3 at the time. He was replaced by Andrew McFadden and the Warriors were beaten by the Bulldogs 21-20 that weekend.

Matthew Elliott just didn’t work out at the Warriors.

St George Illawarra, Round 12, 2014

Coaching change: Steve Price to Paul McGregor

Did they win: No

Steve Price started the season with four wins from 10 matches and was sacked weeks after re-signing with the club. He was replaced by Paul McGregor and the Dragons were beaten 29-10 by the Rabbitohs in his first game.

Paul McGregor is entering his third full season in charge of the Dragons.

Cronulla, Round 17, 2014

Coaching change: Peter Sharp to James Shepherd

Did they win: Yes

Peter Sharp returns to the list after a 15-year absence! This was the season Shane Flanagan was suspended for his role in the peptide scandal but Sharp didn’t last the year and quit after the club won just two of their first 12 matches. James Shepherd took over and the injury-hit Sharks pulled off one of the greatest wins in their history in his debut match, coming back from 24-0 against the high-flying Roosters to win 30-28.

Gold Coast, Round 23, 2014

Coaching change: John Cartwright to Neil Henry

Did they win: No

John Cartwright was gone after the Titans were 8-12 and condemned to miss the finals for the fourth year in a row. He was replaced by Neil Henry but the Titans kept losing, going down 15-12 to Manly in his club debut.

Neil Henry is still in charge of the Titans.

Newcastle, Round 21, 2015

Coaching change: Rick Stone to Danny Buderus

Did they win: No

After 20 matches the Knights were 6-14. Their wretched season included losing streaks of five and six matches and two wins from 17 games between Round 5 and Round 22. Stone was sacked and replaced by Danny Buderus but the losses kept on coming with the Dragons handing the Novocastrians a 46-24 loss.

Danny Buderus had a brief tenure in charge of the Knights.

So for those of you playing at home, here is the true record of new coaches.

Wins: 10

Losses: 14

Taylor’s sacking makes him the 25th coach in the NRL era to hit the road early. If Webster can engineer an upset this weekend he’ll be the first coach to do so on debut since James Shepherd in 2014. That season had the most coaches sacked with four.

Originally published as Do teams always win after their coach has been sacked?