NRL finals: How Sharks and Roosters can stop Storm and Panthers turning premiership into a two-horse race

It will take near-perfection for anyone to beat either Melbourne or Penrith, but it can be done. Here’s how the Sharks and Roosters can stop the NRL premiership from becoming a two-horse race.

It’s going to take near perfection to beat either Melbourne or Penrith for the NRL premiership.

But here’s the exciting thing: Premiership-winner Michael Ennis is adamant it can be done.

The two most successful teams over the past decade are steaming towards the grand final so fast it looks as though the match-up is almost inevitable.

“Melbourne are a very unique footy side, where they have this incredible ability to stay in a suffocating game model, but have individuals in their spine to jump in and out of structure as good as I’ve seen,” says Ennis, a Fox Sports expert.

“I’ve said it for a long time, Craig has done an incredible job of being able to encourage and revolutionise the way that Melbourne has played because of the individuals that have come to his side.

“It could have been very easy to try and force Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen to replicate that style he had so much success with Cronk, Smith and Slater.

Can anyone stop the NRL grand final from becoming a two horse race?

“But he kept the foundations of how they’ve had that success, but then also encouraging and allowed and trusted those guys in the spine to play with the freedom that they play with because the game changed dramatically.”

Melbourne has been the benchmark for more than a decade, but Penrith has set a new standard.

“Ivan Cleary made a very pointed comment the other night in the post game that their style of footy is a finals style of footy anyway. And he’s spot on,” Ennis says.

“They have built a model that stands up in September, and it might not always be pretty and as flashy as some of the other sides that get going at different stages throughout the year, their model stands up in finals.”

They’re miles ahead of the pack, but they’re not infallible.

The whole two-horse race thing? That’s a folly.

“The mindset is the most important thing. Teams need to face Melbourne and Penrith thinking, why not us?”

Here’s how it’s done.

MELBOURNE

Harry Grant

The Melbourne dummy-half controls it all.

And giving him as little time and space as possible may force him to take a less than ideal option, which is a big step in the right direction.

“His ability to capitalise when fatigue comes into the opposition’s defensive line through the middle is incredible,” Ennis says.

Harry Grant is the key to everything at Melbourne. Picture: Getty Images

“Defensively, you need to have this unrelenting wall that gives Melbourne no momentum at the ruck. If you can do that, then you can try and force Harry to take chances that aren’t necessarily there.

“When Melbourne are on the front foot like they were against Cronulla, Grant is just unbelievably damaging.

“But if you can control the tackle and stop the momentum of Melbourne’s forward pack, then it forces Harry to try to manufacture things that might not necessarily be there.

“Which can lead to an error.”

Kicking game

Now that Cameron Munster is back to his best and with Jahrome Hughes by his side, field position is crucial against such an electric spine.

A perfect kicking game will help take the heat out of their attack.

“You need to be constantly putting Melbourne down and deep inside their own half to try and keep Munster and Hughes away from attacking inside your half, because they’re just so dangerous,” Ennis says.

“Papenhuyzen has the ability and the toughness to be able to hurt you through the middle when he’s pushing with Jahrome and Cameron through the middle, but in a blink of an eye he can hurt you with his speed on an edge.”

To stop Melbourne, you need to halt the kicking game of Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster. Picture: NRL Imagery

High completions

Ennis won a premiership with a blueprint performance on how to beat a side like Melbourne.

Cronulla’s 14-12 in over Storm was built on a 90 per cent completion rate.

The Melbourne side of today is different to the 2016 side, but the game plan is the same.

“I refer back to the grand final that I played in against Melbourne, our ball control was 90 per cent,” he says. Just four errors.

“You just cannot beat yourself. And you certainly can’t make errors inside your own half.”

PENRITH

Concentration in defence

Penrith has a way of making it look easy when it’s actually just incredibly smart players working inside a system and waiting for the opposition to make a mistake.

One misstep is to be lured into three-man tackles, allowing Penrith to pounce on a numbers advantage.

“If you watch Penrith, it is so systematic that they get inside the attacking 30-metre zone, and you’ll see a lot of drop plays,” Ennis says.

“And the drop plays are trying to consume three defenders in the tackle.

“And if they get three defenders in the tackle, that then means that there is a disrupted defensive line and that’s when Nathan and Jarome pull the trigger.

“They will just move the ball and move the ball with runners coming back underneath, and the minute they get those three defenders in the tackle, it means that they’re short somewhere numbers-wise.”

To defeat Penrith, you have to match their intensity in defence for the full 80 minutes. Picture: Getty Images

It’s a pure numbers game.

To defeat it, the defence has to match their intensity for 80 minutes and not a second sooner.

It’s a mistake Brisbane made last year and it cost them the title.

“If you want to win a premiership, you have to have that mindset of dialled in concentration for 80 minutes and whatever it takes for my teammate for 80 minutes,” Ennis says.

“At the moment they’re doing that part of the game better than any, and for a long period, and that’s why they had the success that they have had over the past four years.”

“The only time you can relax is when the final siren goes off and you look up at the clock and it has three zeros on it.”

Physical battle

Looking back at the 2022 grand final against Parramatta, Penrith had won the physical battle in the opening 20 minutes.

To get near them in a preliminary final or even the decider, that can’t happen.

“You simply have to win the physical battle,” Ennis says.

“In the blink of an eye, they fall into this clockwork mentality of going to work in their system.

“And they’ve got individuals who just capitalise on that momentum. Cleary, Luai, Isaah Yeo, guys on the edges with Edwards and To’o and Turuva who can score points and they are just so decisive and so precise.”

Kicking game

Like Melbourne, you can’t give the back five any space in a good attacking area.

“You have to be able to keep the footy outside of your own half,” Ennis says.

Like Melbourne, you can’t afford to let the relentless kicking game of Nathan Cleary take over. Picture: Getty Images

“Because if you’re kicking the ball inside Penrith’s half, it means you’re able to land the ball down near the tryline, and your edge can get down there and limit and To’o and Edwards start to the sets.

“If they’re starting their sets over that 20 and 30 metre line, that means that Nathan’s kicking inside your half and his kicking game is just brutal. And he doesn’t get bored of it and he’s relentless with it and his kick selection is incredible.

“He just completely took the game away from the Roosters the other night, because they got physical part of it right and his kicking game was immaculate. It’s a relentless wave.”.

THE CONTENDERS

Each team in the semi-finals had piled on points at some stage this season and they all have an ace they can pull as long as their defence is right.

These are the players Ennis believes have what it takes to inspire a premiership win and upset the two-horse race.

James Tedesco was excellent against the Sea Eagles. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

Nicho Hynes is desperate to prove himself in big games. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

Roosters: James Tedesco

“He’s had a great season and he’s one guy that plays for 80 minutes. So they get through this week and they play Melbourne, for the mid part of the game they lead 12-8 and with 10 to go if they feel like they’re home, Tedesco is the guy who will keep coming at you for 80 minutes.”

Sharks: Nicho Hynes

“If he can get his game stripped back this weekend and build it with three key elements in it; his defence, communication and kicking game, if he gets those three things right in the opening 25 minutes it will have an incredibly calming effect over his side. Nicho’s a good player and he’s got those big moments in him naturally, but if he strips his game back and earns it through the tough parts of the game, Cronulla will respond. He’s desperate for this time of year and it’s in front of him now.”

Every game of the 2024 finals series before the grand final available to stream on Kayo Sports. Watch on Fox League.

Originally published as NRL finals: How Sharks and Roosters can stop Storm and Panthers turning premiership into a two-horse race