NRL 2023 Ultimate Betting Guide: All the odds, best bets for spoon, premiership and more
They went within a whisker of ending the longest premiership drought in the NRL but the punters have backed off the Eels – and that’s just the start of the eye-raising odds.
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The NRL is well and truly back – and after two years of dominance from the Penrith Panthers, the premiership race is wide open once again.
The two-time defending premiers are deserved favourites to complete a three-peat, but who has joined them at the pointy end of premiership betting?
And who of last year’s also-rans are being backed in to make the Top 8 – and finish far away from the dreaded wooden spoon.
Speaking of finishing last, the Dolphins are expected to have some company in the race to avoid finishing with the most losses.
PENRITH
Premiership: $4
Minor premiership: $3.50
Top four: $1.50
Top eight: $1.09
To miss the eight: $6.50
Most losses: $251
Biggest bets: $12,000 at $3.75, $10,000 at $4, $9000 at $4, $6000 at $4, $3000 at $4, $2000 at $4 and $1000 at $4 (multiple times)
TAB says: The Panthers opened at $4 for the 2023 premiership market on grand final night last year and they were swiftly backed into $3.50 after claiming their second straight title. TAB took major outlays of $10,000 at $4, $9000 at $4 and then $12,000 at $3.75 amid the plunge.
They’ve drifted back to the $4 mark since the draw was released and due to the popularity of rivals the Roosters, but they start the season as favourites and with 22 per cent of the investments.
ROOSTERS
Premiership: $5.50
Minor premiership: $5
Top four: $1.65
Top eight: $1.16
To miss the eight: $4.75
Most losses: $201
Biggest bets: $5000 at $6 (twice), $3000 at $6, $4500 at $6.5, $1500 at $6 (multiple times)
TAB says: The Roosters are the best backed team with TAB to win the 2023 title. Along with back-to-back champions Penrith, they make up almost half of the premiership market. They opened at $7 and are now $5.50 with 25 per cent of the title outlays including major bets of $5000 at $6, twice.
MELBOURNE
Premiership: $8
Minor premiership: $6.50
Top four: $1.85
Top eight: $1.20
To miss the eight: $4.10
Most losses: $151
Biggest bets: $4500 at $9, $1200 at $7, $1000 at $7.50
TAB says: The Storm is the fourth best backed team to win the title with close to 10 per cent of TAB’s premiership market. They started at $9, with one early punter outlaying $4500 at the opening price.
There was strong interest in them at $7 with multiple $1000 bets, but Ryan Papenhuyzen’s injury has shaken punter confidence and they’ve drifted from $6.50 back out to $8 to start the season.
NORTH QUEENSLAND
Premiership: $12
Minor premiership: $11
Top four: $2.60
Top eight: $1.40
To miss the eight: $2.80
Most losses: $81
Biggest bets: $1500 at $13, $1000 at $12, $1000 at $11
TAB says: Punters and traders aren’t taking the Cowboys lightly this year after they went from $100 hope to a Preliminary Final in 2022. TAB is backing them off-field as well, as a new platinum sponsorship partner, the first of their kind in domestic sport.
North Queensland opened the 2023 title market at $12. They were as short as $11 and as long as $13 but will kick-off round one at $12 and are the fifth best backed team with around 6 per cent of the money.
SOUTH SYDNEY
Premiership: $12
Minor premiership: $10
Top four: $2.50
Top eight: $1.40
To miss the eight: $2.80
Most losses: $67
Biggest bets: $1500 at $12, $1000 at ($12 multiple times)
TAB says: Despite drifting from opening odds of $10 out to $13, TAB punters have welcomed the value around Souths. They’re the third most supported side in the premiership betting with close to 13 per cent of the outlays.
A Rabbitohs v Panthers Grand Final is the second most popular Quinella following a Penrith v Roosters decider, while Souths are also strongly backed to make the Top four with 13 per cent of that market.
CRONULLA
Premiership: $13
Minor premiership: $13
Top four: $2.80
Top eight: $1.40
To miss the eight: $2.80
Most losses: $67
Biggest bets: $1400 at $13, $1000 at $13
TAB says: The Sharks have remained rock solid with TAB’s traders since opening at $13. They hold just over 4 per cent of the premiership money as the sixth most popular side and are steady across all other markets.
A Cronulla v Roosters Grand Final would be a heavy loss at this stage for TAB if it comes to fruition in October.
PARRAMATTA
Premiership: $15
Minor premiership: $15
Top four: $3.75
Top eight: $1.75
To miss the eight: $2
Most losses: $67
Biggest bets: $500 at $15
TAB says: Punters appear far more cautious with the Eels this off-season after having their hopes dashed last year. Parra opened at $9 on the same premiership line as Melbourne but were pushed out to $10 following the release of the draw and have since blown out to $15.
They’re the third most backed side in TAB’s To Miss The 8 market with 14 per cent of those investments, but they’re also well supported to reach the Top four with 11 per cent of that market’s money.
BRISBANE
Premiership: $17
Minor premiership: $17
Top four: $3.75
Top eight: $1.75
To miss the eight: $2
Most losses: $34
Biggest bets: $3800 at $21, $1000 at $17
TAB says: For as many TAB punters getting behind the Broncos there seems to be just as many ready to write them off! Brisbane is the best backed side To Miss The 8 with a whopping 53 per cent of the money in that market – twice as much as cross-town rivals The Dolphins. They’re also the equal third best backed team to finish the season with the Most losses.
Despite that they’re also the most popular side in the Top four market, holding 17 per cent of those investments. In premiership betting, Brisbane have returned to their starting price of $17 after drifting to as long as $21 in the first week of the market opening, and then being as short as $15 after the draw was announced. They would have been shorter than the $17 on offer if it wasn’t for the injury to Reece Walsh.
MANLY
Premiership: $21
Minor premiership: $23
Top four: $4.75
Top eight: $2.25
To miss the eight: $1.58
Most losses: $15
Biggest bets: $500 at $23, $400 at $23
TAB says: The Sea Eagles opened at $21 alongside Canberra and the Bulldogs but blew out to $26 with Des Hasler’s axing as coach. They drifted further to $29 with the release of the fixtures but have since come back into $21 after claiming the Pre-season challenge.
One TAB punter has had $1000 on them to win the Minor premiership at $34.
BULLDOGS
Premiership: $23
Minor premiership: $26
Top four: $4.75
Top eight: $2.10
To miss the eight: $1.68
Most losses: $26
Biggest bets: $500 at $21 (twice)
TAB says: Despite the hype around the Bulldogs new signings and coach, the interest has cooled in TAB’s premiership market. After an opening flurry of outlays, they’re now only the tenth most supported side and have drifted from $21 to $23.
They’re also the best backed team to Miss The Top four with 26 per cent of the money, although there’s also solid support for them to make the Top four at the $4.75 value.
CANBERRA
Premiership: $23
Minor premiership: $26
Top four: $4.50
Top eight: $2
To miss the eight: $1.75
Most losses: $26
Biggest bets: $250 at $26
TAB says: The Raiders were well backed to make the Top four early but drifted from $21 to $26 in the premiership market after the draw was released. They’re now $23 with TAB following the trials.
GOLD COAST
Premiership: $41
Minor premiership: $101
Top four: $12
Top eight: $4
To miss the eight: $1.20
Most losses: $10
Biggest bets: $300 at $41
TAB says: The Titans opened at $34 but at one stage hit $51 after the draw was announced such was the lack of interest in them from TAB punters. They’re now $41 but are the third worst back team in the competition, narrowly enjoying more support than the Warriors.
WESTS TIGERS
Premiership: $41
Minor premiership: $101
Top four: $12
Top eight: $3.75
To miss the eight: $1.24
Most losses: $10
Biggest bets: $500 at $51
TAB says: TAB opened the Tigers at $51 but they blew out to the equal longest odds of $67 with the Dolphins before some promising pre-season signs saw them tighten into $41 to win the title.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $126
Top four: $13
Top eight: $4
To miss the eight: $1.20
Most losses: $5
Biggest bets: $100 at $41 (multiple times)
TAB says: The Dragons have now surpassed the Dolphins as the team TAB punters a tipping to finish with the wooden spoon. They hold a third of the money in TAB’s most losses market while they’ve drifted from $41 to $51 to win the Premiership.
WARRIORS
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $151
Top four: $17
Top eight: $5.50
To miss the eight: $1.12
Most losses: $8
Biggest bets: $100 at $51 (multiple times)
TAB says: The Warriors are pretty much loveless across all of TAB’s markets with their title odds remaining at their opening price of $51.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $151
Top four: $17
Top eight: $6
To miss the eight: $1.10
Most losses: $6
Biggest bets: $130 at $51
TAB says: The Knights are the worst backed team to win the premiership with TAB punters with barely half a per cent of the title money. They’re also equal third best backed to finish 2023 with the most losses.
DOLPHINS
Premiership: $81
Minor premiership: $251
Top four: $26
Top eight: $7
To miss the eight: $1.07
Most losses: $2.60
Biggest bets: $600 at $67, $500 at $67 (three times) $330 at $67, $300 at $67
TAB says: Initially installed as a $26 premiership chance in October 2021 and a $3 to make the finals. But with the lack of marquee signings, their odds blew out to $67 when the full 2023 market was unveiled on grand final night last year.
Have drifted to $81 following their poor trial form, while they hold 20 per cent of the outlays in the most losses market and 26 per cent in the To Miss The eight market. TAB has also taken strong money for them to go through their debut season winless at $13.
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Originally published as NRL 2023 Ultimate Betting Guide: All the odds, best bets for spoon, premiership and more
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