KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Experts reveal Round 4 trades

To Schuster or not to Schuster, that is the question our experts are wrestling with – and it won’t shock you to hear they have differing opinions.

Manly rookie Josh Schuster had a blinder playing out of position last week and is poised to climb in value this week.

Trent Copeland is all in, labelling the youngster his rookie of the year – in April!

Tom Sangster is hopping on the bandwagon too. And Rob? Well, Rob has written his usual longwinded answer, but I’ll save you the trouble by saying he’s looking elsewhere.

Check out Tom and Rob’s trades ahead of round four below.

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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles player Josh Schuster is the most bought player heading into Rd 4. Picture: Jonathan Ng

TOM SANGSTER

Jacob Liddle (OUT) Josh Schuster (IN) via Connor Watson

I don’t really want to sell Jacob Liddle. He’s going great guns and still has a BE of 4, so more big price rises are on the way on top of $65,400 last week. It makes zero mathematical sense to sell, but numbers and opportunity rarely line up perfectly in KFC SuperCoach. When I say opportunity I mean Josh Schuster, who looks locked in on the Manly edge for at least a few weeks due to the Sea Eagles’ injury crisis, while he could take over at five-eighth any time given the injury prone nature of the player currently occupying the spot. And when I say numbers I mean the break even of -62 and predicted price rise of +$81.2k. Schuster is just so hard to ignore, and to get him I’m willing to engage in the inhumane slaughter of an immature cash cow.

Christian Welch (OUT) Payne Haas (IN)

I’ve got a bit of coin floating around and need to upgrade somewhere. I’d love to sell the underperforming Joe O for Haas but don’t have the right duals or enough cash, so Welch is the man who goes. I’m hardly unimpressed by Welch but he hasn’t quite become the mid-ranger-who-could-become-a-borderline-keeper-type I was hoping for. While the minutes have gone up from 43 per game to 50, the PPM has come down from 1.2 to 1.08. So we are essentially left with the same output as last season. Meanwhile, Haas is POD of the week at just three per cent ownership. This bloke was the second most popular player at one stage during the pre-season, but obviously dropped out of contention after a three-week disciplinary suspension. While other KFC SuperCoaches faff about fixing injuries and ponder the moral implications, Sangster’s Paradise will coach with the head and not the heart. Talk out of the Broncos suggests his minutes will drop from 72 last year to around the 60 mark. But he actually scored better for KFC SuperCoach the last time he played those minutes, with his impact increasing considerably.

ROB SUTHERLAND

I know this article is meant to tell you all about the two trades I am making this week – but let me start with a few hundred words on the trade I am NOT making.

It always feels a little uncomfortable when you run against the herd but that’s exactly what I’ll be doing this week. Josh Schuster is the most purchased player of the round, he’s set to make great money and yet – he’s not joining the Beasts this week.

The reason I’m avoiding Schuster is threefold.

1. I’m still happy with the output of the player I would need to cut – Jacob Liddle – if I were to get Schuster: Liddle is averaging just under 60PPG over three games, and while that’s inflated by unlikely tries in each of the opening two rounds, Liddle is still averaging 40PPG in base and while a try per match is unsustainable, an average of 10PPG across linebreaks/tackle busts and try/try assists is certainly achievable and should he do that then I expect him to reach around $400K by round 10.

2. Schuster’s job security worries me: Yes he was very very good last week against the Dragons and he was solid in Rd 2 against the Rabbitohs. But remember that Schuster was the backup to the backup at this position. When Curtis Sironen was injured it was Andrew Davey who got the call up. When Davey was hurt, in came Schuster. So when Sironen returns he will either somehow displace Jack Gosiewski (a player who Des Hasler preferred in front of Davey who was himself in front of Schuster) or more likely revert to the interchange bench where he provides tremendous flexibility. Sironen’s return date is uncertain, it could be as soon as round six or as late as round eight.

3. Team structure: I need a strong FRF player. While I’m happy with Tino Fa’asumaleaui as a FRF2 he’s currently my FRF1 with a trio of cheapies behind him. I need a strong leader at the position and for that I need money – not ‘Liddle to Schuster’ money, that’s not enough – I need Jamal Fogarty to Sam Walker money.

Sam Walker will make his NRL debut in Rd 4 against the Warriors. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

So that’s the first trade I am making: Jamal Fogarty (out) Sam Walker (in)

Now Fogarty has been pretty good so far, not great but a 51PPG average with a respectable 63 points last week when I loved having his HFB coverage for the concussed Nathan Cleary was pretty useful. Fogarty’s goalkicking (12 from 13) has been accurate but his lack of attacking stats (just two linebreak assists and a solitary try assist) has restricted his scoring. And so I bid him adieu and welcome young Rooster Sam Walker. Unless you have been living under a rock you’ve heard all about Walker by now. Talented young kid, been in Roosters system for a couple of years already, ticking every box at training for a year and blooded in the NSW Cup this year. ‘And just how did he go in the NSW Cup’ I hear nobody asking but will answer anyway … pretty darn well.

In three games Walker recorded five try assists, seven goals, six tackle breaks, three offloads, 41 tackles (with four missed). That’s right, Walker kicks goals.

His job security looks very good with Luke Keary (ACL) gone for the season and he comes in at bottom dollar which frees up a whole heap of cash for … trade number two.

Joe Ofahengaue (out), David Klemmer (in) via Ryan James

As I mention above, I currently have Tino Fa’asumaleaui as my FRF1 and I want an upgrade at that position. My next trade is to sell the underwhelming Joe Ofahengaue (who I have in the 2RF) slide Ryan James down to the 2RF position and buy a premium FRF. My three contenders were David Klemmer, Junior Paulo and Payne Haas. All three have strong claims. Klemmer is a base stat monster (averaging 68BPPG) who is asked to play big minutes whenever injuries strike the Knights pack and as we have seen so far – injuries strike often in the NRL. Junior Paulo has a nice base (averaging 45BPPG) to which he adds great attacking/power upside averaging 20PPG in tackle busts/offloads and linebreaks combined so far in 2021. And Haas, well he’s been the benchmark at the position for two years running averaging better than 75PPG over that span and thanks to missing the opening three rounds due to an off-season suspension he will be owned by fewer than 4% of SuperCoaches when this round starts.

In the end I have gone for Klemmer because:

* he’s such a reliable scorer and that’s handy early in the season when the team is not as strong as it will be later,

* he should be available for the first bye because for some reason the NSW hierarchy don’t like him (while Paulo and Haas seem more likely to play Origin), and

* I get two more weeks to watch Haas and assess how he fits into Kevin Walters’ rotation at the Broncos.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Experts reveal Round 4 trades