Nat Medhurst: The numbers that doomed Super Netball’s bottom four clubs this season

Nat Medhurst dives into the numbers to reveal where things went wrong for the clubs that missed out on the Super Netball finals, and how they can turn things around.

With the season over for four Super Netball clubs, those players and coaching staff are no doubt re-living moments from the 2025 season that may have cost them a spot in the finals and pondering how to get better next year.

There will be player changes. There will probably be coaching staff changes. One club, the Giants, may even have ownership changes which could have even wider ramifications on the team for next season.

But for now, let’s assess where 2025 went wrong and identify areas that the bottom four teams simply must fix to be competitive in 2026.

Nat Medhurst assesses where things went wrong for the bottom four.

Sunshine Coast Lightning – 5th (7 wins, 7 losses)

The question that many may be wanting to understand is whether the SSN competition really is that close or whether the Sunshine Coast Lightning have underperformed in 2025.

On the back of huge Diamond signings in Liz Watson and Courtney Bruce into the lineup, expectations were high.

At round six of the season, the Diamond-studded line up was second on the League ladder, but from round 10 their inability to string wins together saw the Lightning demise and a missed opportunity in finals.

It was their last five matches, where they only managed a buzzer-beater one-point win against the Swifts, saw them do a downhill slide and finish in fifth position.

As the saying goes, a team of champions doesn’t make a champion team and whilst exceptions could have been made for their 2024 season – as players developed new combinations and found their feet in a new environment – one would have expected a better outing this season.

Basic errors cost the Lightning. These include leading the league for centre pass breaks (23) and stepping calls (16) as well as equal second for held balls (13). Absolute coach killers giving far too easy ball for the opposition to punish them on.

On a positive note, defensively they were in the top two for many favourable defensive stats including deflections with gains, defensive rebounds as well as pick-ups where they finished second in the League.

Yet it is the shooting end, comparing them to the rest of the competition, where things look interesting and this may force a change in how they approach things for next season.

Whilst it can create interesting moments across a match, is the reliance on this component of the game coming at a cost?

Across this season, the Lightning ranked 2nd for the number of two-point shots and only 7th for one-point shots.

The teams who finished above them see far greater numbers through the one-point shot, with all of those four clubs sitting in the top four for one-point shots scored.

Excluding the NSW Swifts (3rd in the league), the other top four clubs all sit in the bottom four for two-point shots scored across the home and away season.

Does this potentially highlight the huge value that one-point netball still has within our game? Does it show that the two-point shot is just a tactic used by teams who need to reduce a deficit?

One just has to look at the grand final last year where the Thunderbirds won their second consecutive premiership without attempting a two-point shot while the Vixens nailed seven from eight.

Injuries the past two seasons haven’t helped the Lightning’s cause. The need to have Courtney Bruce on the court more than the sidelines has been a challenge, but their failure to minimise unforced errors these past two years and to now miss the fianls would no doubt be causing some off-season pressures up north.

Giants – 6th (5 wins, 9 losses)

After a shaky start to the season, somewhat surprising to all was the Giants ruffling more than a few feathers in the second half of the season, especially with the introduction of a legend back into the sport.

Up until round eight, back-to-back wooden spoons was looking likely with only one win.

Things were looking more than grim, heightened by the season-ending injury (ACL) to Jamaican defender Jodi-Ann Ward.

What shocked many was Julie Fitzgerald’s decision to pluck World Champion Silver Fern Casey Kopua out of retirement – a decision that was applauded by many as much as it was criticised by others.

Yet the need for experience, in league such as SSN which is not a development league, reaped benefits both on match day and significantly behind closed doors.

The Giants final six rounds were impressive and vastly different team to what we had seen in the eight rounds prior.

It could be asked whether the conversations around the future of the club were happening at the same time these performances shifted.

Winning four of their last six games, including upsetting the Thunderbirds on their home court as well as the Lightning, showed the Giants were able to play cleaner and more concise netball making them far more exciting to watch.

Before the season started, not much appeared to have changed with the Giants’ line up, which has been the case for several years now and questions were asked immediately whether finishing bottom of the ladder was inevitable.

Whilst it was not only their line up that remained unchanged, so too appeared to be the game plan, leaving it predictable in what they were going to deliver in this season.

They ranked 7th for gains to goal and last for centre pass goal rate at only 69.2%, stats that teams put significant weight on, especially the ability to convert your own centre pass.

Again, like the Lightning above, a huge focus is placed on the two-point shot, especially

to get them back into games.

But the differential was extreme. Giants led SSN for two-point shots (113) but sat last for one-point shots at 666 for the season, 50 less than the Lightning who were 7th.

Strangely, despite their final ladder standing, the Giants finished the season 4th for total number of points scored (892) sitting behind Swifts, Thunderbirds and Lightning.

But defensively they were the worst in the SSN, conceding the most points (960) and allowing opposition goals to leak through at high numbers including a whopping 82 goals by the Swifts in round six.

This was supported by their inability to maintain possession across the season, sitting second for average turnovers with 24 a match, no doubt leading to significant pressure at either end of the court,

The Giants were 8th for both offensive rebounds and pick-ups as well as first for penalty obstructions, remaining in play to build pressure played a factor.

With the future of the Giants in limbo, the retirement of Jo Harten as well as the whisper other players could be moving elsewhere, there could be a further downhill slide for a club that continually knocked at the door of Premiership glory in the early years of SSN.

Melbourne Mavericks – 7th (4 wins, 10 losses)

Fair to say the injury curse for this club did not ease up in 2025.

Following season-ending injuries to two players in 2024 and then the loss of star shooter Eleanor Cardwell for the majority of the 2025 season, coach Tracey Neville might need to get a shaman in to remove whatever curse appears to be lingering at the Mavericks.

When the Mavericks came into SSN, outside of their key shooters Sasha Glasgow and Cardwell, plus midcourters Molly Jovic and Amy Parmenter, the remaining players had predominately been players coming off and on the bench at their previous clubs – hence their desire to make a switch for more court time.

There is a big difference between the two and performing consistently across 60 minutes,

let alone week in and week out, and the frustrations of inconsistencies across the season were certainly evident.

It wasn’t until round 12 the Mavericks were able to enjoy the feeling of back-to-back wins, which was on the back of a four-game losing streak.

Although improvements from last season looked evident, the Mavs’ costly errors had them ranked No. 1 in the League for general play turnovers with 286 and that is not where you want to be sitting.

These turnovers sat mostly with bad hands and bass passes – sitting first and second respectively across the League in those departments.

Added to this was the Mavericks being the most penalised side in the competition, averaging 59.9 a game.

It is a tight line to tread in having a crack and creating opportunities verse releasing pressure and giving easy avenue to goal for the opposition.

This was reflected in the defenders sitting 3rd in the League for both intercepts and deflections, but it somewhat becomes irrelevant when the ball was handed too swiftly back to opposition teams across the season.

While it was expected after such a horrific injury and long rehab, Glasgow’s return took

longer to adjust simply because she was playing alongside new teammates more than 12 months after initially joining the Mavs.

Positively for the Mavericks, there was growth across the group and most notably the performance of Shimona Jok who continued to stand up each week under significant pressure.

With signings for next season still to be announced, how this somewhat young group of players continues to develop and build consistency of performances will need to be discovered quickly, as well as their ability to have a fully fit squad to challenge each other for court time and provide the right type of headaches for their head coach.

Queensland Firebirds – 8th (2 wins, 12 losses)

With a new coach at the helm, unlike those teams mentioned above, the Firebirds came out firing to kickstart their 2025 campaign.

Wins against the Giants and the Fever raised hopes of a strong year ahead, but the early bye round would then spark a run of 12 losses as the Firebirds struggled to notch up a win despite significant challenges to teams in the top four including a final match of the season against the Swifts going into extra time.

The big difference between the top four and bottom four is the centre pass conversion and general play turnovers.

Minor premiers Fever averaged just a mere 17.8 general play turnovers a match throughout the season and sat at an impressive 79.6% centre pass conversion – something I know they work on intimately and pay attention to across a match.

Meanwhile for the Firebirds they led the competition for average general play turnovers per game (24.4) and finished 7th for centre pass conversion with at 69.5%.

While you can appreciate the Firebirds goal circle looked different this season with the inclusion of Mary Cholhok into their side, you would think the 201cm Ugandan player has learnt a lot from her debut SSN season to be stronger in 2026.

Injuries played a role in the Firebirds as goal attack Tippah Dwan seemed like a shadow of her former self in the early rounds, before stepping away for the remainder of the season.

Defensively, Isabelle Shearer and captain Ruby Bakewell-Doran were able to develop their combination which can only be predicted to get better in season 2026 where the defence end still created opportunities for their attackers sitting 4th in intercepts (63) and equal 3rd for pick-ups (125), whilst managing to not attract too much whistle from the umpires with penalties.

With the re-signing of coach Kiri Wills until the end of the 2027 season, she will be hoping that this group of players can continue to build on what was started this season and find a way to get more wins on the board and off the bottom of the ladder.

Originally published as Nat Medhurst: The numbers that doomed Super Netball’s bottom four clubs this season