Early Oil: Tips, analysis for Pakenham Cup and Supernova meeting

Exciting sprinter Nadal can win again in The Supernova, while another Ciaron Maher galloper can take out the Pakenham Cup on Saturday.

Racenet and Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner takes an early look at Saturday’s meeting at Pakenham.

BEST BET

NADAL (Race 8 No.6 – $2.70)

VALUE BET

SAMUEL LANGHORNE (Race 5, No.3 – $9)

EARLY QUADDIE

3, 5, 10/3, 6, 7/3, 7, 8/6, 7

$100 flexi for 185 per cent

BIG6

3, 7, 8/6, 7/3, 7, 8/6, 8/1, 3, 4/5, 7, 15

$100 flexi for 30 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 3, 7, 8, 16

Race 8: 6, 8

Race 9: 1, 3, 4

Race 10: 5, 7, 8, 15

$100 flexi for 104 per cent

RACE 1: 12:15PM BENCHMARK 74 (1000m)

PHILOSOPHER (1) stuck on well to run fourth last Saturday behind the smart and progressive Grand Larceny. Big weight again but makes own luck on speed. MAFIA (7) has won two of four starts first-up previously and placed once. Drawn the pole to lead and be mighty hard to run down. SIMPLE TIMES (10) has raced in great heart the past four starts, placed three times. Include among the better chances with a light weight. CHARMED RUN (4), won first up and then not beaten far second-up. LAZY SUSAN (5) next best in a lottery race.

SUGGESTED BET: MAFIA (7) win

TAB MARKET MOVER:

RACE 2: 12.45PM BENCHMARK 74 (1200m)

ROMANI ITE DOMUM (1) has built a nice profile, won two of four and runner-up twice. Drawn wide but has the tactical speed to cross and land in a prominent spot. Beat all bar one, the smart Refusetobeenglish, since sold to Hong Kong. SWEETHEARTED (8) has been runner-up at Kilmore and The Valley in two career starts. Third up and home track a bonus. RELUCTANTLYCHARMED (8) an intriguing runner, won a maiden and Benchmark 58 in subsequent starts and straight into a 74. Include BUTTERNUT PRINCESS (10).

SUGGESTED BET: ROMANI ITE DOMUM (1) each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER:

RACE 3: 1.20PM BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

SAMANGU (10) is shooting for a hat-trick after wins at Ballarat and Caulfield Heath by big margins. Powered clear last start for a 3¼-length victory. Watch for KIKO (5) late, always runs an honest race and placed in all three starts at Pakenham. BOSSY NIC (1) was good first up at Ballarat and has won and placed second up previously. SUBLIMINAL (2) narrowly beaten first up behind the race fit and progressive Cleo Cat. SHESALLSHENANIGANS (3) must be respected third-up in a tricky race.

SUGGESTED BET: KIKO (5) win

Samangu has been dominant in two wins this prep. Picture: Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 1.55PM BENCHMARK 78 (2500m)

DUKE OF CONDICOTE (6) ticks a lot of boxes. Ready to show something close to his best fourth-up at the right trip. Trialled since last start third at Cranbourne beaten 2½ lengths in a 2000m race. DIVUS ROMULUS (7) in a similar boat, fourth-up and last start second behind Kadavar, who has since won a Listed race in Sydney. FLAMIN’ ROMANS (3) next best and include PIPLUP (12) with the light weight – down to 52kg after Jaylah Kennedy’s claim.

SUGGESTED BET: DUKE OF CONDICOTE (6) each-way

RACE 5: 2.30PM BENCHMARK 78 (2000m)

SAMUEL LANGHORNE (3) went super first-up at Ballarat, only beaten by a race fit horse. RUAKAKA RAIDER (8) cruelled by a wide draw last start up in grade. Happy to forgive as won two on the bounce in preceding starts. Champion jockey Craig Williams aboard and has barrier five to work with. ACTAEON (10) and SABAN (7) next best. DEAKIN (2) should really appreciate 2000m second up but needs more distance to figure in the finish.

SUGGESTED BET: SAMUEL LANGHORNE (3) each-way

RACE 6: 3.05PM VOBIS GOLD BULLION (1400m)

RUNNING BY (6) has been crying out for a dry surface. Entered to race a month ago but threat of rain postponed that and subsequent starts. The lightly-raced mare, a five-time winner from 14 starts and runner-up four times, has trialled since her last run six weeks’ ago. Looks very hard to beat here. Tenacious mare OH TOO GOOD (7) will take some holding out on the home track. Won four of seven and runner-up three times. It’s a race in two.

SUGGESTED BET: RUNNING BY (6) win

RACE 7: 3.40PM BENCHMARK 78 (1600m)

NATION’S CALL (3) is back in grade slightly and jockey Blake Shinn sticks on. Better suited at 1600m. Similarly, Craig Williams has maintained the association with KENGERO (8) after the import raced soundly at his second Australian start for Pakenham trainer Charlotte Littlefield. Include MATHLETIC (1), who stuck on solidly for third behind Oh Too Good last start at Cranbourne.

SUGGESTED BET: NATION’S CALL (3) each-way

RACE 8: 4.20PM THE SUPERNOVA (1400m)

NADAL (6) is the horse on everyone’s lips after a startling display last start in the $1m The Meteorite. The Ciaron Maher-trained sprinter must tick the 1400m box on Saturday but based on previous performances, especially when saved up for a sprint finish, the distance should be no issue. TUVALU (8) is the only Group 1 winner in the field and at 1400m no less. His best certainly good enough and must be respected. ARKANSAW KID (1) was desperately unlucky in The Meteorite, ridden for luck on the rail and got none. CHORLTON LANE (9) next best.

SUGGESTED BET: NADAL (6) win

Nadal can handle the step up to 1400m in The Meteorite at Pakenham on Saturday. Picture: Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 9: 4.55PM LISTED PAKENHAM CUP (2500m)

SMOKIN’ ROMANS (1) has wound back the clock and thrived the past four starts in Group races. Makes own luck on speed and the horse to get past in the straight. VOW AND DECLARE (4) not to be dismissed either back on top of the ground. The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner is more than capable in this company. I’M A DIRTY RASCAL (9) first start for new stable. MURAMASA (3) raced well in the Ballarat Cup, ninth but only beaten just under four lengths, after a big gap between runs. Suited at 2400m on a dry track.

SUGGESTED BET: SMOKIN’ ROMANS (4) win

RACE 10: 5.40PM BENCHMARK 84 (1400m)

FREAK OF NATURE (5) entitled to finish much closer than fourth after being squeezed out of a run early in the straight last Saturday at Caulfield Heath. HELIX (15) also on a seven-day back-up and should be hard to hold out. GLOBAL HARMONY (7) resumes after 10-month break. The ex-Hong Kong galloper, who started his career in Australia, has trialled up nicely. Global Harmony became a barrier rogue in Hong Kong, refused to jump, so some query there. IS IT ME (8) has raced well without winning the past three starts. THE OPEN (3) and SIR ATLAS (12) both horses with bright futures but drawn poorly.

SUGGESTED BET: FREAK OF NATURE (5) each-way

Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis for Pakenham Cup and Supernova meeting