Analysis: Shock stats show just how far off the mark Pat Cummins really is

A deep dive into Pat Cummins’ stat sheet has revealed just how far from his best the Australian captain really is. He’s been urged to reinvent himself to remain a force for years to come.

Pat Cummins has been urged to take back the new ball in a bid to reinvent himself as shock statistics reveal his pace has dropped to the lowest mark in his 13-year Test career.

However, former Australian paceman Damien Fleming insists the Aussie skipper can remain a force for years to come despite appearing “underdone” in the first Test loss to India.

Cummins, 31, may have to learn some new tricks though, with CricViz data shining a light on what has been a gradual decline in the average velocity of his Test deliveries over a six-year period.

From a peak average speed of 140.6km/h in 2018, Cummins is this year bowling at an average mark of 136.0km/h in the game’s longest format.

In and of itself that is not alarming, although Cummins’ drop-off in pace has coincided with a mild decline in output. His Test bowling average – which sat at 21.15 after the Brisbane Test against South Africa two years ago – has increased to a still exceptional 22.85.

This has also coincided with a period where Australian pitches have generally been more favourable to bowlers than previous years.

But CricViz data also shows that Cummins has drawn a 22 per cent false shot percentage from batters in Test cricket this year, broadly in line with his previous numbers, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky to only be averaging 29.45 in the five-day format this year.

Fleming said that the absence of Josh Hazlewood to injury presented the perfect opportunity for Cummins to open the bowling with Mitchell Starc and put the early heat on India’s young gun and first Test centurion Yashasvi Jaiswal.

Cummins has tended to take the new ball ahead of Scott Boland when Hazlewood has been missing.

“I didn’t see too many trends coming into the series. I thought his first spell of the game was pretty good, he was a bit unlucky there,” Fleming said.

Pat Cummins’s pace has dropped to the lowest mark in 13 years. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

“But the thing that stood out to me was just his economy rate. First innings 4.27 and then in the second innings 3.44 which is not nuts. But overall, that’s not the Cummins we know.

“I’d have to say, I know he’s never going to say it, but I reckon the main thing is you’re just a little bit underdone.

“My big one is with Hazlewood out, I’m just assuming, ‘Patty, grab the new ball.’ That’s the main thing I was thinking, and (Cummins) gets the chance as captain to set the tone like Bumrah does and make those early inroads.

“He gets to target young Jaiswal with the new ball.”

Fleming added that Cummins – who opted against playing a Sheffield Shield match in the lead-up to this season – could follow greats Glenn McGrath and Dennis Lillee by employing guile over sheer speed in his 30s.

“Hopefully he’ll play a couple of years after Starcy and Hazlewood. But he’s getting into that stage where a lot of the fast bowlers of years gone past, Lillee and McGrath, just refine their game a little bit. Dennis with swing and leg-cutters and for McGrath, I thought he upskilled a bit later in his career, he could swing the ball a bit more, he had the knuckle ball, he bowled reverse swing even better,” Fleming said.

“He’s not going to get quicker, but if he maintains an average speed of 136 there’s no reason he can’t take another couple of hundred Test wickets.

“But we wouldn’t want that trend to continue either.”

Cummins said in August that he was optimistic of picking up some pace by building fitness via a more conventional pre-season after being rested for the white-ball tour of the UK in September.

“I actually think I’ll find a few extra Ks just by just getting a little bit fitter and stronger, less fatigue in the body,” Cummins said.

Cummins didn’t take part in the white-ball UK tour in September. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

“Sometimes it might take me an over or two to kind of get up to top speed.

“Hopefully by the start of the summer, from ball one you’re good to go and you recover better and all those things.”

Wicketkeeper Alex Carey backed Cummins to return to his best after match figures of 3-153 in Perth.

“Pat’s a phenomenal player,” Carey said on Tuesday in Adelaide.

“I haven’t bowled a ball in a game, so I can’t speak what’s the best method to come into a test match for a bowler. I do know that these guys are world class. They’ve got the wickets on the board. They know their bodies better than anyone else.

“So I think I certainly have full trust in Pat to come out here and put on a display. Starcy, Scotty Boland has been phenomenal with the pink ball. Whoever gets the opportunity, I certainly trust the preparation coming in is the right one for them.”

Originally published as Analysis: Shock stats show just how far off the mark Pat Cummins really is