Australia needs to solve close-game jitters in games v Scotland, Ireland to be a Grand Slam chance
For the Wallabies to emulate the feats of the legendary 1984 Australia side, there’s one area in particular they need to conquer – and their destructive win over Wales solved none of it.
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The Wallabies’ demolition job on Wales last weekend won’t help them win the Grand Slam. It might even hurt their chances if they let it go to their heads.
As uplifting as it was to see the men in gold finally crack the half-century for the first time in seven years, landslide victories often do more harm than good because it teaches them nothing.
To complete the Grand Slam, the Wallabies are going to have to grind out back-to-back wins against Scotland and Ireland, two wily old-school teams that will test the nerves and discipline of Wallabies as much as their skill.
As preparations go, Australia’s eight-try romp over the worst Welsh team in international rugby history was completely useless because they weren’t properly tested for the arm wrestles ahead.
The biggest danger is that the Wallabies will start thinking they are better than they really are though Joe Schmidt is too smart to let complacency creep in.
If anyone does get ahead of themselves, the former New Zealand schoolteacher only needs to flick back a couple of pages in his diary and remind his players they finished bottom-last in this year’s Rugby Championship, including the humiliating 67-27 thumping by Argentina.
That doesn’t mean the Wallabies can’t emulate the feats of the legendary 1984 Australia side that did achieve the Grand Slam but for that to happen, they’ll almost certainly have to scrape out wins in two razor-close games, because that’s the one hallmark of good teams.
For all the kudos that great sides get, the cold reality is that they were always just a heartbeat away from disaster but were able to conjure up magical moments when it was needed.
Even when the Wallabies were kings of the world, almost all of their major successes were nailbiters.
When they won the World Cup for the first time in 1991, they still needed a last-minute try to beat Ireland 19-18 in the quarter-finals.
When they won the sport’s greatest prize again in 1999, it took an outrageous drop goal from Stephen Larkham in extra-time to overcome South Africa in the semi-finals.
Australia’s one and only series win over the Lions in 2001 came after the Wallabies won the deciding match 29-23, with Justin Harrison famously stealing a lineout from Martin Johnson in the dying minutes.
The last time the Wallabies won the Bledisloe Cup – in 2002 – Matt Burke kicked the winning penalty on the stroke of full time and, two years earlier, John Eales landed a miracle penalty after the hooter to secure the Tri-Nations for Australia.
And it’s not just the Wallabies whose brightest moments have been decided by the thinnest of margins. The Springboks claimed the World Cup in Paris last year after winning each of their three knockout matches by a solitary point.
Australia’s downfall over the last decade is underlined by their dismal record in close matches, decided by seven points or less.
When Rod Macqueen was coaching in the glory days, the Wallabies won more than twice as many close matches as they lost.
But in the decade that Michael Cheika, Dave Rennie and Eddie Jones (second time around) were in charge, the Wallabies’ success rate in clutch matches fell to just 40%.
The results of those close matches have huge monumental swings. Rennie was sacked after the Wallabies’ end of year tour to Europe when his side lost successive Tests against France (29-30), Italy (27-28) and Ireland (10-13).
How different history might have been had they won those games?
Jones was appointed as his replacement but his appointment proved a complete disaster.
The Wallabies didn’t win any of their close matches under him, culminating in the 15-22 defeat to Fiji at the World Cup that ultimately saw Australia crash out after the pool phase.
It’s still early days but there are already some promising signs that the worm is turning under Schmidt.
He hasn’t even completed his first season yet but the Australians have won six of their 11 matches under his guidance, marking the first time since Robbie Deans that a Wallabies coach has had a winning strike rate over 50%.
Ominously, Australia’s record in tight contests has soared to the same level as when Macqueen was coach – although the pool sample is still small, with just three matches to go on.
Still, one of those was the last-gasp 42-37 win over England at Twickenham, a result that not only kick-started their Grand Slam campaign but was immeasurably more valuable than the subsequent romp over Wales.
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