Raven or Chiefs? Niners or Lions? Who wins through to the Super Bowl?

Mahomes vs Lamar! The Niners D vs Detroit’s O! The NFL Conference Championship games are here and deliver two huge, mouth-watering matchups: who makes it to the Super Bowl?

Then there were four. This weekend’s NFL Championship Round will decide who plays in Super Bowl LVII in Las Vegas and the four remaining teams are the cream of the NFL crop. Fans will be over it like Bills fans on Tyler Bass and the two matchups exceptionally fun. So, what can we expect? Read on for CODE Bet and NFL Straya’s breakdown for the AFC and NFC Title games in the 2024 NFL playoffs, aka the Championship Round on Monday January 29.

This year’s Championship round of the NFL playoffs has the four best teams in the NFL and not just because they’re the four that made it: the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Niners have all been elite teams in at least one facet of the game all season and are a fun mix of dominant defences (Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco) and offences (Detroit, Baltimore, San Francisco) with a couple of MVP quarterbacks on the AFC Side in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, while Brock Purdy and Jared Goff make for two explosive young QBs on the NFC side of the ledger.

Both games are set up to be absolute firecrackers.

Last week saw a 2-2 split of the games going over/under their total points, after the Wild Card round saw a 3-3 split. What happens this weekend?

Who do the odds like for the NFL AFC and NFC Championship Round games, and what are NFL Straya and CODE Bet’s best picks against the line?

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND – NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 3 PICKS AND PREVIEW

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (Picture: Al Bello/AFP) and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (Picture: Rob Carr/Getty Images) clash in the AFC title game.

 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Monday January 29, 7am AEST

Full Chiefs @ Ravens CODE Bet Match Centre Here

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs head into a remarkable sixth straight AFC title game, this time against the Ravens and this time in unfamiliar territory: this is the first time they’ve done so on the road.

Mahomes last week played (and won) his first road playoff game that wasn’t a Super Bowl, and now faces off against a fellow former MVP (and this year’s presumptive winner) in Lamar Jackson.

This is the deepest run of Jackson’s career and Baltimore is hosting its first AFC title game since the ‘70s (when the team in town were the Colts), as the Ravens were the 4-seed when they won it all back in 2012.

WILL THERE BE ANY SCORING?

The matchup itself is a fascinating one, where the Chiefs offence is somehow the weakest unit on the field.

This is the two best defences in the NFL going head-to-head as the Ravens finished first in points conceded per game (16.5) and the Chiefs ended up second (17.3).

Both teams also got to the passer the most in the league as Baltimore led the league in sacks with 60 and KC’s 57 had them second.

The two squads were also super handy in the secondary, ranking top six in passing yards allowed per game.

But in terms of offence, Lamar and Ravens ranked fourth in points scored per game at 28.4, while the Chiefs struggled all year to end up 15th at 21.8.

The one area that KC lacks in comes against the run, ranking 27th in DVOA when it comes to rush defence - Josh Allen ripped of 72 yards and 2TDs last week - so, as we saw last week, the Ravens can score plenty when they’re able to get their run game rolling, and Lamar is a great look to get in for a score.

Best Ravens Player Prop: Lamar Jackson - Anytime TD, Over 40 rushing yards

The Chiefs will hope that Taylor Swift’s boyfriend can produce some magic in order to not only win the game, but to see the Mahomes-Kelce TD connection to break Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s all-time record for playoff TD pairings with a score. The Ravens, however, have only allowed three TDs to tight ends this season: look instead for rookie Rashee Rice to take advantage of the attention paid to Kelce for receiving yards, but Isiah Pacheco to take a score in once the Chiefs make it to the red zone. Pacheco runs like he’s angry at the ground, has six TDs in his last six games and is the fulcrum that the Chiefs offence revolves around.

Best Chiefs Player Prop: Isiah Pacheco - anytime TD

CAN THE CHIEFS PULL THIS OFF?

Well, as long as it’s not Tom Brady on the other team - Mahomes is 13-1 in the playoffs against anyone not named Tom Brady - it’s hard to pick against them.

Not only does Mahomes have that ridiculous playoff record, but he’s also 9-1-1 against the line for his career as an underdog for his career, and the Chiefs are 3-0 this season as a road underdog.

So those are the key points: Mahomes is an underdog, and Lamar is a 3.5 point favourite.

When he’s an underdog or favourite by three points or less, Jackson is 22-6 against the line.

If Lamar is a 3.5 point or more favourite, however, he’s 22-31 for his career.

Considering the quality of the defences, it’s not hard to see this game coming down to the wire and perhaps a last-gasp Justin Tucker game-winner that sees Baltimore progress, but the Chiefs cover.

THE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 + Total Points Over 44.5

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JAYMZ CLEMENTS’ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS SAME GAME MULTI

• Kansas City +3.5
• Total Points - Over 44.5
• Lamar Jackson - Anytime TD
• Isiah Pacheco - Anytime TD

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Jared Goff (Picture: Nic Antaya/AFP) and the Detroit Lions take on Brock Purdy (Picture: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) and the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 NFC title game.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Monday January 29 10.30am AEST

Full Lions @ Niners CODE Bet Match Centre Here

What a week for Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions. After squeezing past Tampa Bay, Detroit is in a Conference Championship game for the first time since 1992.

For reference, Kriss Kross’ seminal ‘Jump’ would hit No. 1 on the ARIA charts... 6 months after the Lions lost that game 41-10 to Washington.

For San Francisco, meanwhile, this is getting old hat: this is their fourth conference championship game in the last five years, and the big difference from the Niners team that got waxed by Philly last year is that the Niners will actually have a healthy quarterback and not be playing their fourth-string QB (fare thee well, Josh Johnson).

The rampant upstarts in Detroit versus the veteran NFC favourites: this NFC title game is set up to have more fireworks than an unregulated southern county on the Fourth of July that prompts those videos each year of some dumb family almost getting blown to smithereens by an overeager uncle.

POINTS AHOY?

This NFC title game also features two awesome offences: the Niners scored 28.9 points a game (3rd in the NFL) while the Lions managed 27.1 (5th).

It shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering the offensive weapons on both sides.

San Francisco:

• Christian McCaffrey - 1459 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDS as well as 564 receiving yards and 7 receiving TDS
• Deebo Samuel - 892 receiving yards, 7 TDs, plus 225 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs
• Brandon Aiyuk - 1,342 receiving yards, 7 TDs
• George Kittle - 1,020 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Detroit:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1,515 receiving yards, 10 TDs
• Jahmyr Gibbs - 942 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 316 receiving yards, 1 TD
• David Montgomery - 1,015 rushing yards, 13 TDs
• Sam LaPorta - 889 receiving yards, 10 TDs

It’s an impressive set of numbers, right!? And both offences

For San Francisco, with Deebo Samuel nursing a shoulder injury after last week’s game, Aiyuk is the one to keep an eye on. When he goes big, he goes BIG, topping 100 yards seven times this season and going to over 50 another five times. If Samuel is playing, Aiyuk will benefit from this suspect Detroit secondary and rip off a big one.

Best Niners Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk - anytime TD, Over 104.5 yards

For the Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored in five of last six games and always manages to pop up to save Jared Goff’s skin with a big catch and carry. The Niners secondary is tough as nails and allowed the eighth fewest yards per game (303.9) and 20 receiving TDs all years, good for ninth in the league. With the run defence allowing only 89.7 yards (3rd best) and 10 TDs on the ground, St. Brown is the best look for Detroit.

Best Lions Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown - anytime TD

CAN THE LIONS SLOW THE NINERS DOWN?

The biggest worry in this one is the Detroit defence.

This Detroit defence has been rough all year and just gave up 408 yards to Tampa Bay last week, with the Bucs averaging just under 7 yards per play. The week before, the LA Rams put up 425 yards of total offence and ripped of almost 8 yards a play.

Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards and 3TDs, and Matt Stafford 367 yards and 2 TDs, and Detroit’s secondary finished 32nd (remember, only 32 teams in the NFL) in ‘explosive pass defence allowed’.

The Niners have the NFL’s most explosive passing offence.

Hence the idea that Aiyuk has a big game.

The good news for Detroit is that their run defence was (by DVOA) the top-ranked run D, so they’ll try to force Brock Purdy to throw plenty - by the same metric they were the 16th ranked passing D.

San Francisco’s defence finished the season ranked 2nd by DVOA, and the top-ranked DVOA offence..

So it feels like the Niners defence ought to be a tough matchup for Detroit, and the last point that will keep Lions fans up at night is Jared Goff’s record outside the cosy confines of Ford Field.

In 19 home games Goff a 42-9 TD-INT ratio in 17 games; in his 17 away games, that ratio is 17-10 TD-INT.

Ouch.

The Niners have a winning margin this season of 17.8 and the margin of victory in their home games have been 18, 19, 32, 13, 12 and 3 points.

The -6.5 line might feel like a bit of a risk, but if the Niners defence stymies Detroit, this could be a big win.

San Francisco should be too good at home (6-3 this year) and book a trip to Las Vegas.

THE PICK: San Francisco -6.5

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JAYMZ CLEMENTS’ DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO SAME GAME MULTI

• San Francisco 49ers - Win
• Niners - Team Total Points - OVER 28.5
• Brandon Aiyuk - Anytime TD
• Aiyuk - Over 104.5 yards

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Originally published as Raven or Chiefs? Niners or Lions? Who wins through to the Super Bowl?