Packers upset Cowboys? Dolphins or Chiefs? What are the best NFL Wild Card Playoff picks?
The NFL playoffs are here - what are the best picks across all six games for ‘Super’ Wild Card round?
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The NFL ‘Super’ Wild Card Round is set to hit this weekend, and folks will be on it like a uni student on a cheap banh mi. But with so many enticing matchups, what can we expect? Read on for CODE Bet and NFL Straya’s breakdown for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL playoffs, aka Super Wild Card round, starting Sunday January 14.
Week 18 of the NFL saw a slew of contenders rest starters and a couple of teams fall into the playoffs - read our full Week 1 set up here - to set up what looks to be an amazing Wild Card Round slate.
Over/Unders finished the season in favour of the unders, which hit at a 54.6% rate this season (147-122), but more interesting heading into the playoffs where the lights are brighter and all the focus is on a single game at a time is that prime time unders are at 70% for the season. 32-17 for the season.
So! Who do the odds like for the NFL Christmas Day and Boxing Day slate across Week 16 and what are CODE Bet’s best picks and bets against the line?
And with your humble, extremely handsome correspondent still nursing a broken finger, this week… we’re doing every matchup in only one line!
2024 NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 1 - SUPER WILD CARD ROUND PICKS
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Sunday January 14 8.30am
Full Browns @ Texans CODE Bet Match Centre Here
Smokin’ Joe Flacco and the 5-seed Browns head to Texas to take on the combo of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and their surprise packet 4-seed Texans that fell backwards into an AFC South title courtesy of the Jaguars being, well, the Jaguars.
The Texans have ridden Stroud and a perky defence to an excellent 6-3 home record, while the Browns have struggled on the road (3-5), but won 36-22 at NRG Stadium back in Week 16. More importantly in this game is that the Browns have the best pass defence in the league in allowing only 164.7 air yards per game and the #2-ranked defence in DVOA across the season.
Stroud has been amazing in his rookie year in throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 TDs and only 5 INTs, as the Texans threw for the seventh-most yards per game at 245.5, so this game will hinge on whether Stroud can find the likes of Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz to open up its offence and pressure the Browns into a shootout.
That has actually happened to the Browns defence on the road this year, giving up an average of 29.6 points a game away from home, so if there were to be a playoff rookie quarterback come through in a surprise win, it would be Stroud in this game.
But the experienced Browns defence against the young Texans should be too tough: as long as Flacco doesn’t meltdown, the Browns should sneak the win.
THE PICK: Cleveland -1.5
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MIAMI DOLPHINS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Sunday January 14 8.30am
Full Dolphins @ Chiefs CODE Bet Match Centre Here
Despite having the second-best offence in the NFL thus year, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins limp into the playoffs to take on the reigning champs in Arrowhead having lost two in a row against the Bills and Ravens, and Miami’s two star pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips done for the season, while other big-time names like Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard and Tyreek Hill are all banged up and on the injury report.
Kansas City have struggled to get its offence pointed in the right direction, but will relish the chance at a get-right game against a paper-thin Dolphins defence. Meanwhile KC’s own D has been solid against the pass - allowing 176.5 yards a game, fourth best in the league - but Miami’s success lies in getting its run game behind De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert going to the tune of a league-leading 265.5 yard an outing.
If Miami can get its run game going early, it should be able to keep pace with the Chiefs - they didn’t manage that in Week 9 when Miami lost in KC 21-14 - and keep up its 4-4 record against the line on the road this season.
But with the cold in KC predicted for Sunday, it will be a big ask for Miami to actually beat Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid, no matter how out of sorts that Chiefs offence is looking. Kansas City should win, Miami to cover.
THE PICK: Miami +4.5
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Monday January 15 5am
Full Steelers @ Bills CODE Bet Match Centre Here
All Mike Tomlin and the Steelers do is chew gum, go .500 and make the playoffs. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they lost star linebacker TJ Watt to a knee injury and despite getting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back, if they’re unable to pressure Bills QB Josh Allen, the Bills offence should be able to keep them at arms length.
2-seed Buffalo has basically been playing playoff games for the last month and a half and after winning five straight, managed to win the AFC East. But working in the Steelers favour is that the Bills love nothing more than playing down to their opposition - as witnessed by their close-run wins over the Chargers (24-22) and Patriots (27-21) in the last three weeks.
If Allen has time behind his O-line, however, the Bills should win, but Mason Rudolph and the run game of the Steelers behind Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren should stay within spitting distance in Buffalo.
THE PICK: Pittsburgh +10.5
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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Monday January 15 8.30am
Full Packers @ Cowboys CODE Bet Match Centre Here
Dallas hosts Green Bay in the first Mike McCarthy playoff bowl as the Cowboys coach once more goes up against the team he helped win a Super Bowl (but lost 31-28 to last year), as the 2-seed Cowboys take on the youngest playoff team in NFL history riding a 16-game winning streak at home.
Packers QB Jordan Love filled the shoes of Aaron Rodgers admirably this year, finishing the regular season with 4,149 passing yards, 31 TDs and 11 INTs, but will be sorely tested by a Dallas defence that was ranked 5th overall in defensive DVOA, while the Packers D will have to contend with Dak Prescott and Dallas’ highest scoring offence in the NFL at 29.9 points per game.
The Cowboys have covered the line in six of their eight home games this season and had an average home winning margin of 17.5, but the Packers have an average losing margin of just 6.9 this year and behind a much-improved offence and the fact that they’ve covered the line in six straight as underdogs to Dallas, look for the Cowboys to win, but the Packers to make them earn it.
THE PICK: Green Bay +9.5
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LA RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS
Monday January 15 12pm
Full Rams @ Lions CODE Bet Match Centre Here
If the Spider-Man meme were an NFL playoff game, it’s this one.
Former #1 pick and Rams QB Matt Stafford used to be the QB in Detroit, while former #1 pick Jared Goff used to be the QB for the Rams, while both offences are high-octane affairs built around fast, punishing running backs - Kyren Williams for LA, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery for Detroit - and possession dominating receivers who can break open a game on any possession in the Rams Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and Detroit’s Amon Ra St. Brown.
But with the Lions playing their first home playoff game since the 1993 season and searching for their first victory since 1992, they will have to do so without star tight end Sam La Porta and with Rams coach Sean McVay being intimately familiar with Goff’s game, having coached him from a rookie to a Super Bowl runner-up.
The Rams should be able to slice and dice this Detroit team who will have their hands full on defence trying to keep Goff upright in the face of an Aaron Donald onslaught, and keep this close, even if they don’t win it outright.
THE PICK: LA Rams +3
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tuesday January 16 12pm
Full Steelers @ Bills CODE Bet Match Centre Here
The final game of the Super Wild Card round finds what’s likely the two teams playing the worst football at the moment, with the Eagles having dropped from 10-1 to 11-6 over the last third of the season, while the Bucs managed a 9-0 win over the execrable Panthers last week to fall into another NFC South title and a playoff berth.
Philly’s woes are on both sides of the ball and the injuries are piling up, with QB Jalen Hurts nursing a hand injury and star receiver AJ Brown going down last week, while defensively the Eagles have a Woolies receipt for a family of 8 as an injury list.
Tampa Bay aren’t doing much better and are only 4-4 at home this season - and 3-5 at the line - but are at least 8-3 against the line as an underdog.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles has also historically had great success against Hurts, limiting him to 3 TDs and 5 INTs in three meetings, while Baker Mayfield still has Mike Evans with which to try and burn the Eagles bereft secondary.
The Eagles might be able to manufacture just enough points to get the win, but it might come right down to the wire and a game-winning FG from Philly to get past Mayfield and co.
THE PICK: Tampa Bay +3
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- CHECK OUT CODE BET’S NFL ANALYSIS HUB HERE -
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