Chiefs or Bills? Packers or Niners? NFL Playoffs Week 2: who makes it through?
It’s the best weekend of NFL football each season: so which teams will win through a massive NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs?
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The NFL playoffs hit week 2 with the Divisional Round up this weekend and fans will be getting around it like a Philly talk-back caller on Nick Sirianni, or a Cowboys defender on a blown coverage. But with so many enticing matchups, what can we expect? Read on for CODE Bet and NFL Straya’s breakdown for Week 2 of the 2024 NFL playoffs, aka the Divisional round, starting Sunday January 21.
The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is easily the best round of the playoffs: the eight teams left are the cream of the crop and this year sees a wildly fun mix of young up-and-comers (Green Bay, Houston, Detroit), a wild card (Tampa Bay), a ‘prove it’ team (Baltimore) and some playoff heavyweights (San Francisco, Kansas City, Buffalo) - to set up what looks like it could be an awesome weekend of games.
So! Who do the odds like for the NFL Divisional Round playoff games, and what are NFL Straya and CODE Bet’s best picks against the line?
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND - NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 2 PICKS AND PREVIEW
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HOUSTON TEXANS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Sunday January 21, 8.30am AEDT
Full Texans @ Ravens CODE Bet Match Centre here
After the week off courtesy of their 13-4 record and being the AFC #1 seed, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens finally open their playoff account against rookie quarterback CJ Stroud and his 10-7 #4-seed Houston Texans.
This is clearly a big game for the Ravens, a team that hasn’t made it back to an AFC Championship game since winning the Super Bowl in 2012, and last time they were in this position - as a 1-seed at home in the divisional round back in 2019 - they had won 12 straight games, but lost to Tennessee in brutal fashion.
Houston is similar to that Titans team in having a young, hungry defence and a new and innovative coach in DeMeco Ryans, but Baltimore is the best balanced team in the league, with the 3rd best offence (28.4) and best defence (16.5) in terms of points scored and allowed, while Houston are 11th (23.4) and 10th (20.4) respectively.
Baltimore has also won four straight games over Houston and beat them at home 25-9 in Week 1 this year.
Houston all year felt like home bullies - where they were 6-3 during the regular season before beating Cleveland last week - but remain 5-3 against the line on the road.
In Baltimore they will lean on their 6th-ranked run defence to make Lamar and Odell Beckham Jr and Isiah Likely beat them in the air, but the Texans give up 235.9 passing yards per game, so it might not be the best approach.
For their part, the Ravens were 5-4 against the line at home, but most importantly, in the familiar surrounds of M&T Bank Stadium this season the Ravens averaged 34 points a game.
The Texans record against the line on the road means that they’re the pick: CJ Stroud and company are playing with house money at this point and will make Baltimore earn the win by keeping it close.
THE PICK: Houston Texans +9.5 and Under 43.5 total points
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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Sunday January 21, 12.15pm AEDT
Full Packers @ Niners CODE Bet Match Centre here
Jordan Love and the Packers did the content world a favour by knocking out the Dallas Cowboys last week on the road, but now face a much tougher test as they head to Levis Stadium to take on the NFC’s 1-seeded San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners would have revelled in securing a bye, allowing the likes of Trent Williams and offensive weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to rest up and be healthy to allow QB Brock Purdy and coach Kyle Shanahan to have a full arsenal on hand.
It’s hard to get past the idea that the Packers - the youngest team to make the playoffs since 1974 - may have played their Super Bowl last week and the Niners should be too good on both sides of the ball. Offensively the Niners were the 2nd best scoring team in the league at 28.9 points per game behind McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk and co, while also being first in total yards per game and also boasting their 3rd-best defence in conceding 17.5.
Crucially for this matchup - as they face a rampant Aaron Jones - the Niners have been the third-best team against the run in terms of yards allowed this season at only 89.7 a game.
Behind Love, Jones and receivers like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, Green Bay was 8th on offence (23.9), while they sat 12th on D (21.2), but finished the year strong, with the win over the Cowboys their fourth straight.
But a healthy Niners team is the best team in football, and despite a 3-5 record at home against the line - whereas Green Bay are 5-5 on the road against the line - San Francisco’s margin of victory this season was a ridiculous 19.1 points and their home victories came 18, 19, 32, 13 and 12 points.
The total points has gone over for both these teams at a top 5 rate, and the last six Packers road games have gone over, so look for some points to be scored in a big Niners win.
THE PICK: San Francisco -9.5 and Over 50.5 Total points
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Monday January 22, 7am AEDT
Full Bucs @ Lions CODE Bet Match Centre here
After squeezing out their first playoff win since 1991, Detroit head into a second playoff game in a post-season for the first time in three decades, while Baker Mayfield and the Bucs put Eagles fans out of their misery last week with a very solid Wild Card victory.
The set up for this one is delicious, with the Bucs primed as upset candidate with all the emotions involved in the Lions win over the Rams last week, but Lions dealt with the Bucs pass rush well in beating them in October 20-6 on the road in Tampa.
Since then, however, Mayfield has helped solidify this Bucs offence and can keep the Lions D on its toes, and goes up against a Lions defence that not only allows the 10th-most points a game (23.2) and is ranked 30th in pass defence in allowing 253.4 yards a game.
Tampa Bay’s defence ranks 5th in points allowed (18.6) but also gives up the 27th most yards a game in 248.1 through the air, so in the confines of Ford Stadium, we should see plenty of ball movement as we see the 5th ranked Detroit offence (26.9 points a game) up against Tampa’s 19th best (21.1).
There will be points and Tampa Bay, behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, should manufacture enough points to stick close to the Lions.
THE PICK: Tampa Bay +6.5 and Over 50.5 points
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Monday January 22, 10.30am AEDT
Full Chiefs @ Bills CODE Bet Match Centre here
The jewel in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs and Bills meet in the playoffs for the third time in the last four years - with KC winning the previous two in classic fashion - but for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid-era, the Chiefs will be on the road for this matchup and, remarkably, in the playoffs in general.
The Bills and Josh Allen actually won 20-17 in Week 14 at Arrowhead this season, and have won three of the last four meetings, while Mahomes and Allen are 3-3 head-to-head all time.
But the most crucial aspect of this game is just how healthy the Bills are (especially on defence) is after a slew of injuries hit last week in the 31-17 win over Pittsburgh, including to cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Christian Benford, as well as linebackers Terrel Bernard and Baylon Spector. They join the likes of other injured Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, linebacker Tyrel Dodson and safety Taylor Rapp who are day-to-day.
It means that the Chiefs go into the game with the best unit on the field in their defence that was ranked 2nd in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game, going up against a Bills offence that averaged 26.8 points a game - good for 6th overall.
The Chiefs allowed the 4th fewest air yards in the league (177.2), and the 16th ranked amount of rushing yards (111.2), which means Bills running back James Cook runs could be in for a big day alongside some scripted Josh Allen runs.
The Bills are 8-2 at home this season and 5-5 against the line, while the Chiefs were 6-2 on the road head-to-head and 4-4 against the line.
So as we’ve come to expect when these two teams meet - expect an arm wrestle of the highest order.
After all, their last three games have been decided by a total of 13 points.
This could be the game where the Bills finally get the post-season Chiefs monkey off their back, but with all the injuries they’re carrying on defence, it will be a big ask.
THE PICK: Kansas City +2.5 and Over 45 Total Points
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- CHECK OUT CODE BET’S NFL ANALYSIS HUB HERE -
Originally published as Chiefs or Bills? Packers or Niners? NFL Playoffs Week 2: who makes it through?
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