Wreck it Ralph: The 16 reasons why Essendon’s build is sustainable — and the Bombers could pinch a final
Darcy Parish’s 2021 emergence has many tagging him as a Brownlow Medal smoky, but this is just the beginning, Jon Ralph writes.
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Dyson Heppell could smell what Essendon was cooking in the moments after the Bombers’ three-point loss to Sydney in Round 4.
As he lauded his young Bomber teammates for their ability to crack in and stand up under pressure, he knew this build was different to all the other false Essendon dawns.
“I know we are hurting right now, but f---, I have loved playing with you boys,” he told them.
“Everyone is so committed for the first time in a long time. We are 1-3, but I tell you what, that (effort) beats f------ 90 per cent of teams. They are flying at the moment.”
Heppell was an F-bomb dropping AFL Nostradamus — Sydney has emerged as a 2021 powerhouse and Essendon’s bid to “embed this DNA”, as he put it, has turned into a spectacular finals charge.
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Essendon is 9-5 since Round 8, and the losses to contenders this year (three and seven points against Sydney, two points and 13 points against GWS, 11 points against Melbourne) are full of merit.
But more to the point, Essendon doesn’t seem a flash in the pan, it has the echoes of a team building towards something substantial.
Here are the signs Essendon’s remarkable finals run is built on something sustainable.
1. Sometimes it’s about the little things. Just as Sydney is attempting to copy Richmond’s mantra of selflessness and a forward line working as one, Essendon finally gets it.
Instead of a 60m torpedo to cash in during a five-goal game against the Suns, Jake Stringer hit up Alec Waterman for one of his two goals after a mark just outside 50m.
When he kicked another freakish goal Stringer immediately turned and celebrated with the teammates who made it possible. Stuff like that matters.
2. Jake Stringer could be Mr September.
The penny has dropped, with Stringer “borderline flying” last year until a syndesmosis injury and now elite fit. He is only 27 and should have five great years in him.
Stringer is third across the entire competition based on Champion Data’s AFL Player Ratings behind only Nic Naitanui and Marcus Bontempelli. Playing a 48 per cent midfield, 52 per cent forward split, he is the perfect player right now.
He has 37 goals, averages 4.5 clearances (3.2 centre clearances) and also is above average for score assists. And he tackles (3.9 per game).
What more could you want for a player who Essendon secured for two second-rounders (picks 25 and 30)?
3. Essendon’s “brand” is making rapid improvements, a credit to Ben Rutten’s coaching.
Across the first 15 weeks the Dons were poor in contested ball and clearances, forced to play an unsustainable game based on transition and back-half turnovers.
From Rounds 17-22 they are No. 1 for clearance differential, fifth for contested ball and fourth for time in forward half. What do all those fancy stats mean?
Their game style is sustainable, both in terms of winning a 2021 final and in the years to come.
4. Darcy Parish is a jet, but there is improvement in him.
Parish has knocked up winning the footy and winning medals this year, and his kicking is reasonable — he kicks at the above average rate of 61 per cent with a kick rating of +2.5.
But drill deeper and he has had the second-most kicks inside 50 of any player and has the second-worst retention rate behind Tim Taranto.
Some of that is about the lack of a gun forward, but Parish has huge scope for improvement, which should excite him and Dons fans after a superb breakout year.
5. Dylan Shiel has found a new role despite speculation about his future in the midfield.
Shiel has played four games back from injury and he hasn’t shot the lights out, playing 8 per cent on the wing, 69 per cent as a forward and 23 per cent as a midfielder.
The most common midfield set-up is any combination of Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Jake Stringer and Shiel, with Sam Draper as the ruckman.
But Shiel’s role shows the club has enviable midfield depth with Andrew McGrath returning against the Suns (just 13 touches, better for the run), and in a final Shiel leading the second-rotation midfield would be critical.
Shiel was recruited as the midfield solution and is now the fourth-best mid, with Jye Caldwell, Kyle Langford and McGrath in the mix.
You can never have too many good mids.
6. Sam Draper. Humble brag time. Was very keen to put Draper into the best 20 players 23 and under but instead slotted in Zac Bailey for him as a late swap.
So what, you might say?
Six weeks later, he’s in that list of 20 and is rising with a bullet.
Essendon fans love his aggression, his cult hero status, his ability to go forward and take a mark deep, his around-the-ground marking.
Champion Data loves his Nic Naitanui-type influence in the centre square.
He is elite for centre bounce clearances and above average for hit-outs to advantage and clearances. On Sunday he put the ball on a silver platter for his mids in a second-quarter clinic, hitting Parish, Stringer and then Stringer again.
It’s not quite Gerard Healy’s “flipper, flopper and over-the-topper” from Nic Nat to Luke Shuey at full stride, but he’s something special.
Get used to the sight of the gangly Draper charging from the centre square with ball in hands — he doesn’t turn 23 until September and has only 19 AFL games under his belt.
7. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti was dropped this week and no one really noticed.
Tipungwuti’s consecutive-games streak was snapped and he will be back soon, but Devon Smith is elite for forward-half pressure and above average for tackles, while Will Snelling is an above average forward-half pressure player and elite for tackles.
The sight of three Essendon players swarming to a Gold Coast player after a spilt forward-50 mark to frantically lock the ball in from all sides said everything about Rutten’s team’s defensive priorities.
8. Nik Cox.
He won’t win the Rising Star. Essendon fans don’t care. They know what they have got.
9. Archie Perkins.
Not sure exactly what type of player he eventually becomes, but it’s going to be fun witnessing him as a mid-forward or a forward-mid who will have quiet games but a million explosive moments.
A player who didn’t play a minute of NAB League footy last year missed the first two games of the year and has played 19 consecutive games, some as the sub.
As a football education it is exactly what he needed, with Damien Hardwick often saying one senior game is worth multiple VFL games for a youngster.
10. Zach Reid.
His season was shut down after injury and only a single senior game.
But in his final VFL game before a back stress fracture he hauled in 12 intercept possessions to go with his six spoils and 17 touches at 88 per cent efficiency.
He is the unwrapped Christmas present sitting under the tree.
11. A defence that lost Michael Hurley, Adam Saad and Conor McKenna was ranked 15th across the first six weeks.
In the past five weeks it ranks fifth for points against and third for opposition scores per inside-50.
Despite throwing James Stewart, Jayden Laverde, Dyson Heppell and Nick Hind into the mix. The reasons why are obvious to see.
12. Essendon resisted the temptation to throw James Stewart back into the forward line when injuries hit, and we are starting to see why.
He kept Josh Bruce goalless last week, Sydney’s Sam Reid to a single goal and conceded only two combined to Jesse Hogan and Harry Himmelberg.
He’s no superstar but he kicks the ball well, he marks it well, and he’s just a no-nonsense member of a solid back six.
13. Jayden Laverde is only 25 and after six seasons as a minister without portfolio, just might be an elite key-position back.
You want scalps? He kept Ben King goalless on Sunday, Lance Franklin to only two goals, Nick Larkey goalless in Round 18, kept Tom Hawkins to two goals in Round, held Tom McDonald goalless in Round 15.
It’s a phenomenal stretch of match-ups. There is no reason he can’t sustain it like failed forwards Tom McCartin and Liam Jones before him.
14. Jordan Ridley is one of just three general defenders in the competition to rate elite for intercept marks, intercept possessions and spoils. The other two are Nick Haynes and the wildly underrated Nathan Broad.
He’s 22, he has backed up last year’s Crichton Medal, and the sky is the limit.
15. Nick Hind isn’t getting the big-name defensive jobs any more, but he’s still delivering and more.
Early in the season he was shutting down Dylan Moore, Orazio Fantasia, Tom Papley and Dan Butler WHILE doing elite stuff as a halfback charger.
Now, as Mason Redman and Ridley get the elite small forwards, he’s been freed up to work his magic.
He’s still above average for intercept possessions (as well as disposals and metres gained) and elite for uncontested possessions.
Rivals will try to put work into him in coming seasons as they did Jason Johannisen, so it’s his next challenge but he has the speed and defensive abilities to slot back in as a lockdown defender if he is tagged.
16. Essendon knows it needs a key forward and it has the cap space to find one.
It is still getting it done without a bona fide star, as Peter Wright stands tall, with Harrison Jones a huge positive and Kaine Baldwin having signed a new one-year deal this week as a hugely talented SANFL key tall coming off two knee recos. It was a canny supplemental selection made with huge upside and little downside.
The Dons gave their second-rounder this year to Geelong, but have retained their own first and third-round picks.
Josh Dunkley would have been a lovely addition but it would have meant the Dons’ first selection — currently pick 11 — was already gone.
None of the above guarantees anything in coming years. But Essendon believes in what it is building.
It is finally replacing hype and bluster and bluff with concrete results built by a coach very short on BS and big on culture and a team-first ethos.
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Originally published as Wreck it Ralph: The 16 reasons why Essendon’s build is sustainable — and the Bombers could pinch a final
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