With expectations soaring, what would a straight sets exit mean for the Crows?
Matthew Nicks isn’t even considering the prospect of the Crows’ season ending in straight sets. But what happens if the unfathomable does occur and who or what will be to blame?
Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks pretended like he had never heard the phrase.
Asked if losing the semi-final to Hawthorn and going out of finals with two straight losses would detract from the major strides the Crows have made this year, he said it was a prospect they weren’t even considering.
“It is a game of footy, it is a final. We put ourselves in a position to have a double chance, a double home chance, in finals footy. It’s a pretty good effort,” he said.
“We won’t even be talking about it. What did you call it? Straight sets?
“Let’s just go and beat Hawthorn hey.”
Facing the prospect of a straight sets exit is something the Crows haven’t dealt with in recent years.
STATE OF PLAY
Since the current top-eight system was introduced in 2000 the Crows have lost the qualifying final three times.
The last time a straight sets exit was on the cards was 2012 when the Crows went down to Sydney at Football Park and then was able to win against Fremantle the following week.
Thirteen years on there are plenty of similarities for the Crows.
Like in 2012, the side this year had gone from well outside the eight to one of the best sides of the home-and-away season.
This year the Crows have gone from 15th to minor premiers, in 2011 the Crows were 14th before finishing second the following year.
In both years a relatively inexperienced side when it came to finals was given a rude shock of what September footy is all about.
In 2012 it was against Sydney, while last week Collingwood’s finals-hardened approach was too much for Nicks’ side.
Ian Callinan, who played in that 2012 side, said the 2025 side could also bounce back.
“They finished top for a reason so they are doing some good stuff,” he said.
“Watching that first final they probably looked a bit overawed early.
“It is pretty similar to us in 2012, we were probably lacking a bit of finals experience as well from memory.
“I think the coaches would just be reassuring them of the good stuff they have done in the year, you don’t just lose that in a week.
“To be totally honest as a player you aren’t thinking about straight sets.
“They would have had their review so you move on pretty quick and they would be thinking about all the good stuff they have done through the year and what they can get right.
“They will be better for the run, they will be more experienced, those guys who haven’t played finals before will know what to expect now.
“I would expect a pretty good response to be honest.”
THE UNWANTED RECORD
The Crows face the prospect of becoming the first VFL/AFL minor premiers to exit finals this way since 1983.
It is an unwanted record, and while it’d go against history the Crows can’t simply bank on having another chance to get through.
But would a straight-sets exit unfairly detract from the big steps the Crows have made this year?
Inaugural coach Graham Cornes says yes.
“It would be disappointing but you have to go back to expectations at the start of the year
the expectation was that they would make the eight and we’d hoped they would and that would have been a success,” he said.
“To finish as minor premiers has been above everyone’s expectations, when the dust settles and as big as a disappointment it would be you have to say the year has been a success.”
Fox Footy analyst David King said the Crows had made giant strides this year.
“I think finishing top of the table shows it has been an outrageous success this season. He had his detractors 18 months ago, Matty Nicks and we haven’t heard from them in the last month or so,” he said.
“They have recruited really well. Every decision they have made has been proven to be the correct one.
“They have lost a final, they have lost a final. It is high stakes so I understand that.
“If they drop out in straight sets does it affect 2026? I don’t really think so.
“They know they have to get better in certain areas and they are going to have better talent with Izak (Rankine) coming back and perhaps an off-season recruit or two and they will be in the fight again next year.
“It’s a tough comp to get yourself into this position is not easy so they have done really well.
“Do you achieve if you go out in straight sets? You aren’t considered an absolute success but the year itself has been quite remarkable and you have to acknowledge that.”
WHAT WOULD IT MEAN?
Adelaide has closely based its rebuild of its list on how Brisbane was able to turn itself into perennial contender and then premiership winner.
Interestingly the first year the Lions made finals under Chris Fagan, they exited in straight sets.
And out of the eight top-four sides to go out this way since 2016, five of them have bounced back to make finals the ensuing year.
So it isn’t a disaster if the Crows lose to Hawthorn on Friday night.
But there will be plenty for Crows fans to discuss.
How much of a hole did Izak Rankine leave after his suspension?
Does this impact Taylor Walker’s thoughts about his future?
Do the Crows still wait until the summer to discuss any extension to Nicks’ contract that expires at the end of next year?
King said the absence of Rankine would be something that would be looked at.
“I think that the loss of Izak is something that you can’t just blow past and not assess if they do go out in straight sets,” King said.
“I think in terms of one person’s impact on the team he is probably the single biggest individual in this finals series.
“You take Lachie Neale out of Brisbane. I think they can still win. You take Izak of Adelaide and I think he has more of an impact than any other.”
Cornes said that should be taken into account.
“It has been complicated by the Rankine suspension and things like that,” he said.
“But as disappointing as it would be it would have to be regarded as a successful year given the disappointments of last year.”
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Originally published as With expectations soaring, what would a straight sets exit mean for the Crows?
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