Why Geelong must overcome poor recent history against St Kilda at Marvel

The form lines suggest Geelong should be recording a comfortable win this weekend however history suggests the Saints could come marching in. Here’s why.

St Kilda big man Rowan Marshall (left) enjoys playing against the Cats. Photo: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos.

If you’re basing your tips on what Geelong and St Kilda produced in Round 1, it’s probably fair to suggest Saturday’s night clash looms as an easy win for Chris Scott’s men.

But the Saints and Marvel Stadium present a potential early season slip up for the Cats if recent history is to go by.

The Cats were slick in 78-point demolition of Fremantle while the injury ravaged Saints looked well off the pace against Adelaide.

Give Saints coach Ross Lyon the opportunity to turn this weekend into a dull affair or a contest played on his side’s term and an early season upset could be on the cards.

St Kilda has won the last three meetings under the roof between the two sides, and while Geelong boasts the highest win rate (65.87 per cent) at Marvel, they’ve only broken even in their last 10 games there.

In Round 23 last year, the Cats blew a 33-point lead as the Saints lit up the second half. There was a third quarter hiccup against the Dockers, so it’s worth keeping an eye on this week.

Sam De Koning impressed in the ruck last week. Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images.

Despite not being known for heavy scoring, St Kilda has had 55 scoring shots to Geelong’s 34 in their past two clashes.

With Max King and Dan Butler still sidelined, the Saints’ forward set-up remains in the air. Rowan Marshall was pushed forward last week, with debutant Harry Boyd taking on most of the ruck duties. After a disrupted pre-season, Lyon may need to pit Marshall against Sam De Koning, who starred in Round 1. Marshall has shone in their recent match-ups, racking up 28 disposals and a goal last time out.

Jack Higgins looms as a key threat up forward, having kicked three goals in each of the last two games against Geelong, and will shoulder extra responsibility given the Saints’ injuries.

Jack Higgins has troubled Geelong in recent matches. Photo: Mark Brake/Getty Images.

The midfield battle will be crucial. Bailey Smith impressed on debut for Geelong, while Saints skipper Jack Steele, though quiet last week, has averaged 27 disposals in his last two against the Cats. Add Jack Macrae, who looked sharp on Saints debut, and it’s clear that winning the contest at the coalface will be vital to St Kilda’s chances.

As Cats young gun Ollie Dempsey said earlier this week, don’t take anything for granted.

“We don’t play at Marvel a lot which will be a good test for us,” he said.

“We take them at their best, they will challenge us again at Marvel Stadium and they always play well there.

“It will be a good challenge for us, they have some great players that we will need to watch out for.”

Originally published as Why Geelong must overcome poor recent history against St Kilda at Marvel