Going, staying, in limbo: Jon Ralph reveals where the key names are at
The AFL trade period officially kicks off today. Which deals will get done and which are still up in the air? Get the latest on all the key players.
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As free agency continues and the trade officially starts, which club could be about to get the new Blake Acres, and which coach has the greatest challenge of his career to turn an inconsistent forward into a match-winning star?
THE FREE AGENT DEALS THAT WILL GET DONE
Ben McKay (North Melbourne)
Where are they going: Essendon, on a deal of at least five years that should tick off first-round compo for North Melbourne (the No.3 overall selection).
What does it mean: McKay took the equal-most intercept marks in the AFL in the second-worst defence with six games rated elite by Champion Data.
Jordan Ridley has already expressed his delight at playing alongside him. A real coup to snare him ahead of Sydney and Hawthorn.
Jade Gresham (St Kilda)
Where are they going: Essendon, on a deal the Saints hope will trigger first-round compo. The deal only needs to be two years at just over $800,000 to trigger that band (pick 13, which would shuffle to pick 14 after McKay’s compo). The Dons were working on his contract over the weekend.
What does it mean: Depth, depth and depth. Essendon wants to add it across the ground and he’s an upgrade in the Will Snelling types in a forward line that still lacks pure goal power. It gives the Davey boys and Archie Perkins time to find the level, so if he can improve his kicking it is a quality acquisition.
THE TRADES THAT WILL OCCUR
Brodie Grundy (Melbourne)
Where are they going: Sydney. And while some at the Pies have asked about whether they can extricate themselves from a heads of agreement that has them paying $250,000 of his deal until 2027, it won’t happen. The Swans have picks 23 and 31 so one of the latter picks should get the deal done but no word yet on the details of the trade.
What does it mean: He is a massive upgrade on this year’s ruck situation - an injured Tom Hickey with Hayden McLean. Go back to his last injury-free year at the Pies to consider his impact - an average of 115 Super Coach points, 19 touches, 32 hitouts, four clearances, 4.7 score involvements, 4.2 tackles. If he can provide that the Sydney midfield becomes a weapon again.
Shane McAdam (Adelaide)
Where are they going: Melbourne. The Crows belatedly offered him a three-year deal so have asked the world in exchange - Harry Petty, which isn’t going to happen. The Crows have picks 9, 21 and 24 and hope they could get an end-of-first-rounder for the departing free agent Tom Doedee. So they don’t want a random late pick. They want a player. Let the haggling begin.
What does it mean: McAdam kicks goals. Sound obvious? Yes, but in the last three seasons he has averaged 1.7, 1.5 and 1.7 goals a game, sneaky good for a player who also averages around a direct score assist, 4.3 score involvements and 2.8 tackles. The Demons seem to be backing in a fit Bayley Fritsch, Petty and Jacob Van Rooyen given they were not involved in the Mabior Chol bidding war. So they will add McAdam, but that might be it for key or medium-sized forwards.
Mabior Chol (Gold Coast)
Where is he going: Hawthorn. The Hawks trumped Adelaide - who offered a three-year deal on conditional money. Their offer is four years and trigger for a fifth. The Suns were happy to get him off their books but will now ask for a quality future pick given the scope of his deal. Probably a late future second.
What does it mean: Chol might be Sam Mitchell’s greatest coaching challenge in 2024. His talent is sublime. But Gold Coast found too often he dropped his head when the going got tough. How does he unleash the mongrel to get 100 per cent application, 100 per cent of the time? Chol kicked four goals in the VFL Grand Final in second gear and took eight inside 50 marks against Box Hill for five goals in the prelim. His talent is off the charts. Can Sam Mitchell unlock it after only eight AFL games this year?
Taylor Adams (Collingwood)
Where is he going: Sydney. Exactly what the Swans need and he should go to provide elite leadership and clearance strength instead of playing half forward at the Pies. As recently as 2021 he averaged 7.1 clearances and 27 possessions for the Pies.
What does it mean: Sydney has an elite draft hand - 11, 23, 31, 44, 52 - so this could turn into a real win-win trade that helps the Pies and Sydney.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Essendon)
Where is he going: Port Adelaide. It’s easy to criticise Zerk-Thatcher but his year was excellent apart from three torrid outings (nine goals to Jesse Hogan, six goals twice to Tom Hawkins). So he’s potentially an upgrade on Trent McKenzie and would have Aliir Aliir and Esava Ratugolea as intercept markers alongside him.
What does it mean: Essendon’s early request was for a first-rounder. Port Adelaide scoffed. But the Cats want a future first for Ratugolea, and Zerk-Thatcher had a better 2023 playing on better opponents, averaging more possessions, more intercept possessions and 2.2 intercept marks to Ratugolea’s 2.8.
Xavier Duursma (Port Adelaide)
Where is he going: Essendon. Power wingman Duursma requested a trade on Monday and Essendon might have even used the lure of trying to improve their draft order to draft his brother Zane. But the Hawks (pick 3) are also keen on mid-forward Zane, so that seems unlikely. A swap with Zerk-Thatcher is actually a fair trade.
What does it mean: Duursma’s two finals were poor - 16 and seven possessions in a year interrupted by a PCL injury. He’s never averaged over 20 possessions or 300 metres gained or kicked at better than 70 per cent. But he has the tools as one of footy’s best runners to be a Blake Acres type, spoiling goals on the last line then involved in offence 15 seconds later.
Liam Henry (Fremantle)
Where is he going: St Kilda. The Dockers are shattered and say as a former top 10 pick who played 16 games this year they want the world in a trade. St Kilda are desperately trying to preserve their draft hand and say he’s worth a third-rounder. They will settle somewhere in the middle but not before plenty of haggling.
What does it mean: Henry should turn into Brad Hill’s successor as an elite runner who racks up possessions - an average of 20.4 this year - who could be more damaging with ball in hand.
Zac Fisher (Carlton)
Where is he going: North Melbourne. Fisher just didn’t hit the scoreboard enough as a half forward to be considered a weapon - only 53 goals in 107 games. But he has dash and elite skills and can play wing or half back. Can’t see him getting serious centre square minutes ahead of any of Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, Will Phillips or Tom Powell.
What does it mean: Slot him in at half back and let him run. Having been offered a four-year deal the Blues, they will want a second or early-third 2023 pick to top up their draft hand which is currently only 16, 67 and 75.
Nick Coffield (St Kilda)
Where is he going: Western Bulldogs. Before two injury-decimated years (an ACL, repeat calf tears) he hadn’t proved worthy of a top-10 pick but he was a very solid 15-possession-a game defender who in 2020 averaged an excellent 1.5 intercept marks and 5.1 intercept possessions. So it’s low investment, big upside for a player about to turn 24.
What does it mean: Another defensive magnet for Luke Beveridge to move around in the mix that includes Hayden Crozier, Jason Johannisen, Taylor Duryea, Bailey Dale, Ed Richards and wing/half back Oskar Baker.
Jacob Koschitzke (Hawthorn)
Where is he going: Richmond. The Tigers believe he was offered only $150,000 plus match payments on a one-year deal (with a trigger) so the Hawks can only expect a third-rounder.
Hawthorn can’t ask for too much for him because it will set the market on what the Suns request on Chol. If Koschitzke is worth pick 40, then Chol is pick 25. So a third-rounder is about fair.
What does it mean: Expectations should be modest. Koschitzke kicked only nine goals in 12 games this year, going goalless in six of those matches. But he is only 23, kicked 27.20 from 20 matches in 2021, and the Tigers desperately need key talls to play alongside Tom Lynch. It’s a canny move with little downside.
Elijah Hollands (Gold Coast)
Where is he going: Carlton. Talks were expected to escalate over the weekend. The Suns get his cap space off their books, he gets a chance alongside his brother Ollie at the Blues. As a former pick 7 the Suns would ask for a future second-rounder, which would be swallowed up next year by a bid for first-rounder Ben Camporeale, son of Scott, anyway.
What does it mean: Hollands can run, can win the ball, can kick goals. He hasn’t done it anywhere near consistently enough at AFL level. But he would replace Paddy Dow and Lochie O’Brien as midfield depth hoping to play alongside Patty Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, Matt Kennedy, brother Ollie, Sam Docherty and Matt Cottrell. So he’s definitely no walk-up start.
Chris Burgess (Gold Coast)
Where is he going: Adelaide. He kicked 60 goals in 20 VFL games this year so he’s handy back-up for Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe but the Crows also believe he can play down back as a pinch-hit.
What does it mean: The Giants hoped it meant Elliott Himmelberg would be released to them. But the Crows wanted Mabior Chol as well. Surely after only 41 games in six years Himmelberg will eventually find his way to the Giants.
Tyler Brockman (Hawthorn)
Where is he going: West Coast. The Hawks will release him on compassionate grounds given the WA boy is homesick and needs family support with two young kids. The Eagles have threatened to get him in the pre-season draft, so the Hawks will have to accept a modest draft pick.
What does it mean: Could Brockman be this year’s Bobby Hill-style trade? The 20-year-old has barely scratched the surface as a goal-a-game electric small forward who can dance past opponents and stand on heads.
Paddy Dow (Carlton)
Where is he going: St Kilda. Dow toured Sydney but that interest has cooled. This will likely be a late throw-away pick given he’s uncontracted.
What does it mean: Dow will never be a great kick - averaging just 48 per cent efficiency across a six-year career. But when actually playing as a centre square mid in his last six games this year his clearances numbers were seven, five, seven, four, seven and eight. That is elite. Can he get the game time to replicate it so Steve Silvagni can prove the Blues wrong?
James Harmes (Melbourne)
Where is he going: The Bulldogs have expressed an interest. He has two years on a deal worth nearly $500,000 so could they smooth it out over three seasons? His best is excellent. In 2021 he averaged 20 touches, 9.2 contested possessions, 3.2 clearances, 5.2 tackles.
What does it mean: Good luck Bailey Smith getting more midfield time. But the Dogs have to change up their mix and seem keen on small forward Nick Watson rather than a bona fide mid if they secure pick 4 from the Suns.
Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
Where is he going: North Melbourne. He adds depth in a position on the wing the Roos are keen to fill.
What does it mean: In four seasons Stephens has never played more than 15 games, averaged more than 16 possessions or kicked at better than 65 per cent efficiency so he has room to improve. But gets to a landing spot where he can do just that.
THE TRADES THAT ARE IN THE BALANCE
Scott Lycett (Port Adelaide)
Where is he going: Melbourne, St Kilda, Geelong and Collingwood are all looking for ruck backup.
What does it mean: He had a knee clean-up last week on his meniscus and believes he will be injury-free for round 1. In the final against Brisbane he had 123 ranking points, 12 hitouts to advantage, five clearances. Still has more to give.
THE TRADES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR
Ivan Soldo (Richmond)
Where is he going: Port Adelaide are keen. Richmond are keen to hold him and say they would only trade him for an excellent pick they know the Power don’t have.
What does it mean: Port’s first pick this year is 38, they will split their future picks on this year’s trades. So given the Richmond hard line he probably stays.
Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)
Where is he going: Nowhere yet. But rivals believe the Power would be open to a trade in certain circumstances. Wines is committed to the Power on a lucrative four-year deal. So it seems less likely than likely, but don’t rule anything out.
Jack Billings (St Kilda)
Where is he going: Likely nowhere given rivals are not sold on his charms as a footballer and his salary until 2025 is significant. Might need to have the best summer of his career to break into the side.
Nick Haynes (GWS)
Where is he going: The Giants would pay a chunk of his salary — more than $1 million next year — to get him to a landing spot where he plays but no one is interested yet. Surely the era of the long-term back-ended deal is dead and buried.
ALREADY A DONE DEAL
James Jordon (Melbourne)
Where is he going: Sydney. The free agent has departed, handing the Demons pick 39 as compensation.
What does it mean: Can he turn from a player who in 2022 played 22 games averaging 20 possessions and 337 metres gained but only 1.1 clearances into a more inside clearance specialist? Because that’s what the Swans need instead of another handy running player.
Joel Hamling (Fremantle)
Where is he going: Sydney.
What does it mean: Excellent defensive back-up who will hope to break into the side that has Tom McCartin, Lewis Melican, Dane Rampe, Aaron Francis and Robbie Fox.
Matt Flynn (GWS)
Where is he going: West Coast, with GWS already receiving pick 40.
What does it mean: Great ruck coverage for a player who has averaged at least 84 ranking points in his past three seasons playing 12, 12 and nine games as well as 23 hitouts and 2.8 clearances. And he can release Bailey Williams forward at times.
Tom Doedee (Adelaide)
Where is he going: Brisbane. The Crows pulled an initial offer and then handed him a two-year deal on modest coin. They believe his deal at the Lions could be four years (with a fifth-year trigger) on nearly $700,000. The Crows received an end-of-first-round pick as compensation.
What does it mean: Doedee is coming off a knee reco but should eventually replace Ryan Lester as the third intercepting back. Darcy Gardiner only played four AFL games this year. Surely with Jack Payne, Doedee, Lester and Harris Andrews ahead of him, a smart rival goes VERY hard at Gardiner in the next nine days.
Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne)
Where are they going: Essendon, on a 12-month contract.
What does it mean: Nick Bryan averaged less than 10 possessions in his eight games and Sam Draper has had groin surgery. So the Goldstein move adds competitive pressure - Bryan only plays if he deserves it.
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