Tom De Koning contract analysis: What his call means for St Kilda, Rowan Marshall and Carlton
Would Rowan Marshall and Tom De Koning work? How would the Blues spend their extra millions? We examine the flow-on effects of the Carlton ruckman’s $12m contract call — whether he leaves or not.
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Ross Lyon is a wide consumer of culture with ‘White Lotus’ and ‘MAFS’ on his weekly must-watch list but we cannot confirm if he has a SuperCoach side.
If so he would be one of 106,357 Supercoaches dreading the impact on Tom De Koning’s weekly scores if and when Marc Pittonet returns to the Carlton side.
De Koning is a beast when rucking one-out but distinctly average with Pittonet in the side.
Last year across eight games rucking solo he averaged an elite 118 points compared to just 76 when rucking in tandem with Pittonet.
De Koning’s true scope was realised rucking solo in that four-week patch in rounds 11, 12, 13 and 15 without Pittonet as he exploded and the Blues beat Port Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong and Richmond.
And yet if Michael Voss was happy to play two rucks when available, there was only one game where De Koning truly shone while playing alongside Pittonet.
In round 6 against GWS last season, De Koning played 57 per cent of game time forward and kicked three goals.
He has never kicked 10 goals in a season, averages 0.31 goals a game, has kicked multiple goals five times in his 84 AFL games and has a single goal this year.
WHAT IF ST KILDA LANDED TDK?
If St Kilda can land TDK as a big fish signing which paves the way for further recruitment of elite stars, you cannot begrudge them that move even if he is on a $1.7 million price tag.
Landing GWS midfielder Finn Callaghan would have helped every other member of their midfield in a trickle-down effect.
But there is every chance TDK and Rowan Marshall become the new version of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy.
Except with a price tag approaching $2.6 million combined rather than the $2 million the Demons stumped up for ‘Gawndy’ in an experiment that lasted less than a season.
It is Carlton’s last hope for TDK as they resign themselves to losing a ruckman who ranks ninth among all players on AFL Ranking Points this year.
Does he really want to go to a club with another first ruckman who rarely plays forward and also dominates when playing high minutes in the centre square?
Because as much as Marshall and De Koning would seem more natural forwards than either of Gawn or Grundy, the stats would tell you something very different.
Just as the Sean Darcy-Luke Jackson combination looks good on paper but never quite passes muster, TDK and Marshall might end up two bulls in the one paddock.
De Koning has been in the ruck at the start of every quarter this year and Marshall in every quarter apart from round 1 when he played forward off a pelvis injury (zero goals) and Harry Boyd rucked.
As an inside 50 target in the past three seasons, De Koning is 94th out of the top 100 players for retention rate.
He retains the footy only 33 per cent of the time and kicks a goal only 13 per cent of the time (87th of the top 100).
Marshall is 48th of the top 100 for retention rate (46 per cent) and 45th for goals from inside 50 targets (20 per cent).
Few AFL coaches have done more with less than Ross Lyon at St Kilda, so it would be intriguing to see how he shaped his ruck stocks with that pair.
And yet clubs pay $600,000 for the kind of pack-crashing, 25-goal-a-year free agency forwards like Dan McStay, not $1.7 million.
WHAT IF TDK LEFT CARLTON?
If De Koning did leave it would be a shattering blow for Carlton but it would not be mortal.
It would clear cap space to re-sign pre-agent Sam Walsh, who is extremely loyal but also a Geelong local who the Cats are sure to chase next year.
They could adopt the Geelong approach by simply retaining Pittonet and realising that like the Cats with current first ruck Rhys Stanley it is a luxury to have an elite ruck but not a necessity.
Their cap is so tight that they are holding off on talks with an array of players — including Nic Newman, Brodie Kemp, Jesse Motlop — until they get a better read on TDK.
But it might allow them to chase an elite small forward to help Motlop in coming years and an elite running mid to bolster a side that will get back Jagga Smith next year.
The Blues had to pass up Dan Houston last year given their cap issues but with cap space to burn they might have a dash at a Darcy Jones type at the end of 2026 or even get into the Zak Butters free agency war in 12 months time.
Few players in the AFL are as white-hot as De Koning.
He has been in the coaches votes in three of six games — six against Hawthorn, eight against the Western Bulldogs and four against North Melbourne.
But against Richmond in round 1 Toby Nankervis won nine of 10 possible votes against him and Darcy Cameron picked up seven votes in the Pies’ victory.
Both of those ruckmen would be on well less than his $800,000 contract, let alone the $1.7m he has been offered.
So Carlton fans – and those SuperCoach experts – will be shattered if he leaves.
But it only really makes sense for him from a financial sense, and will not be a mortal blow if he departs the Blues.
Originally published as Tom De Koning contract analysis: What his call means for St Kilda, Rowan Marshall and Carlton
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