The Tackle: Jay Clark’s likes and dislikes from the second week of finals
Jordan Ridley wants out. Zach Merrett wants out. The Bombers need to find a way to make their players happy. Maybe Ken Hinkley would be the perfect yin to Brad Scott’s yang.
The 2025 Grand Final is only two games away, and after their stunning performance with an undermanned side, who’s to say Brisbane won’t be there yet again.
Jay Clarks gives his likes and dislikes from semi-final week.
LIKES
1. ONCE BROKEN, THE LIONS LOOK SET TO CONTEND FOREVER
Cameron Rayner was seen as being a bit soft and sooky.
When he complained to an umpire last week about the treatment he copped from Cats’ tagger Mark O’Connor in the first final, he looked like a man begging for a free kick. For a chop out.
And perhaps, Rayner didn’t love the vision which was highlighted before he received the easiest double goal in footy history which was the talk of the footy world.
But what a way to show your truly colours just eight days later.
If Rayner the raging bull was a bit wounded by the barbs all week, he delivered an emphatic response which not only helped catapult the Brisbane Lion into a fifth preliminary final in the past six years, it was one of the most powerhouse individual performances in recent seasons.
One week after he flopped, Rayner looked as untackleable as Dustin Martin in his prime.
With eight broken tackles against the Suns, Rayner equalled Martin’s record from the 2017 preliminary final, according to Champion Data.
And when the big moment came midway through the second term with the Lions up by only seven points, Rayner bee-lined the ball, ploughed straight through Mac Andrew and booted an 85m goal from only marginally in front of the centre circle.
If he was a bit weak at the knees last week when he copped the contact from behind, this time it was his opponents who were left sitting on their backsides.
Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw is a magnificent player, but when Lions’ recruiter Stephen Conole had the tough choice between Brayshaw and Rayner with the first pick of the 2017 national draft, this was exactly the sort of game breaking passage of play the Lions envisaged.
And what a time to produce it given the week Rayner had. And, privately, the Lions backed him in all week, while ever-so-gently pulling the ripcord.
Then, bang.
But it wasn’t the only plate of revenge served on Saturday night as the Lions set up a do-or-die preliminary final showdown against its 2023 Grand Final nemesis.
The Lions are only one win away from their third-straight Grand Final which is an extraordinary effort from the group and its coach Chris Fagan whose ability to keep the Lions sharp, hungry and tactically at the fore with their brilliant ball movement must be celebrated.
The club was broken when Fagan took over and now it has the chance to win multiple flags as part of a premiership dynasty, at the same time as they swoop in for gun Essendon ruckman Sam Draper, A-Grade defender Jordan Ridley and former West Coast captain and spearhead Oscar Allen.
And if Will Ashcroft’s performance was any indication in the semi-final thrashing, the Lions are going nowhere next year.
Ashcroft, 21, played one of the best games of his career to steer the win against a team which mocked him for being gifted the Norm Smith Medal last year.
It was in the pre-season Suns players went after him for stealing the medal off the man the Suns said they thought truly deserved it, Lachie Neale.
And it is clear Ashcroft hadn’t forgotten what the Gold Coast players said to him.
With Neale on the sidelines on Saturday night, Ashcroft took over the game in the first half to finish with 28 touches, two goals, 17 contested possessions, 11 score involvements and eight clearances in the 53-point pounding.
It sets up one of the most fascinating head-to-head midfield match-ups in the game as Ashcroft and Collingwood supremo Nick Daicos prepare to go head-to-head.
One has a Norm Smith, in Ashcroft, while the other is favourite for this year’s Brownlow Medal, Daicos.
They are two of the best ballwinners in the game, with Ashcroft coming off a devastating knee reconstruction as well.
They are unlikely to spend much time on each other, as their devastating ball use will ensure they remain proactive and aggressive in their movement.
Stopping them will be up to others.
For all the talk about match-ups and tags, this is one battle which will be offence versus offence.
But whoever gains the ascendancy between the two dynamos will surely spearhead their side to another premiership decider.
2. MOST FEARLESS
He might be the AFL’s most underrated player in recent years.
Lions’ wrecking ball Josh Dunkley, 28, has averaged only six Brownlow Medal votes a season over his previous nine years and 192 AFL games.
But his magnet is probably the first one Chris Fagan puts on the Lions’ team board and after knocking over Gold Coast’s Matt Rowell, the former Bulldog will be set to Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey on Saturday night.
De Goey flexed his muscle in the win over Adelaide last week and is the difference-maker for a Magpies’ midfield which has stood accused of relying too heavily on Nick Daicos.
But he will face-off one of the most valuable, well-rounded and team-focused players in the AFL in Dunkley.
He received the Robert Rose award for the AFL’s most courageous player as voted on by his peers, following in the foot steps of Zak Butters, Callan Ward and Joel Selwood among other tough nuts, underlining Dunkley’s standing as one of footy’s most fearless warriors.
And on Saturday night he not only stopped Rowell, who was this last week lauded as the most destructive force in football, he racked up a record 18 tackles in a final.
He is not one of footy’s highest-paid or most recognised players, but he is one of the most selfless and successful with two flags to his name already.
3. FULL BLOOM
Josh Ward has been a slow burn for Hawthorn.
In the highly-rated 2021 national draft, the smooth-moving Hawk was taken pick seven after the likes of Jason Horne-Francis, Finn Callaghan, Mac Andrew and Josh Rachele, as well as father-sons Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy.
And last year, it was unclear when Ward was going to pop with his classy ball use and natural ball hunting.
But on Friday night, as Jai Newcombe led Hawthorn to a brilliant upset win over the Crows with another incredible finals performance onball, it was Ward who produced arguably the best and most important game of his career.
Ward, who has reached out to Collingwood champion Scott Pendlebury this year for advice as part of the same management stable, had 31 touches, 14 contested possessions, seven intercepts and seven score involvements to help knock off the Crows.
And if they are going to pip their arch rivals, Geelong, then Ward is going to have to step up again as the Cats will attempt to cut the head off the snake.
That is not to discount James Worpel who looks set to transfer to Geelong as a free agent at season’s end, helping free up cash for Zach Merrett from Essendon.
But the most certain move of the weekend will see Irishman Oisin Mullin head to Newcombe after the Hawk’s barnstorming run through finals including 28 and eight clearances against Adelaide and 32 and 12 against GWS Giants.
Last year in his two finals, the midseason draft pickup had 31 and six against Port and 35 and three against Western Bulldogs, starting the extraordinary run.
So the Cats will spend the week going to school on Newcombe to help curb his impact after Mullin did the job on Hugh McCluggage last week.
Scott recently described veteran big man Rhys Stanley as a “very, very high value player” given his modest salary compared to his actual impact in the ruck.
Mullin, who came to the club as a category b rookie from Ireland, wouldn’t be far behind him in the value rankings.
DISLIKES
1. DEEP DIVIDE
Essendon should go all-out for Ken Hinkley.
The former Port Adelaide coach was known for his tight relationships with players including superstar midfielder Zak Butters and was largely a beloved figure at Alberton.
And if the Bombers are serious, they will look to use the potential exits of Sam Draper, Zach Merrett and Jordan Ridley to find the real reasons behind their want to get out.
Former Collingwood premiership spearhead Travis Cloke is also a man in demand across the competition after two years in a development role at Tullamarine.
Clearly, the injuries have been a major problem in recent years, but spare a thought for former head of high performance Sean Murphy who must feel like the biggest scapegoat in the game.
Simply, the fitness coach can’t be the issue at a club which is clearly missing some of the connection which is a hallmark at some other successful teams.
There is something wrong at Tullamarine, and the Bombers must have the courage to face up to the issues prompting players to look over the fence.
They need to build a club where players want to stay because the club will be thankful it has already locked away star young spearhead Nate Caddy until the end of 2028.
Hinkley, who has a long list of clubs after him, is a master connector, and could be the yin to Brad Scott’s yang.
There are no magic wands in footy, but the former Port coach and flying Geelong defender will be a man who could help the environment at a club which will either let the captain go for the highest price possible on the last day of trade period, as expected, or attempt to hold him at Tullamarine against his will.
It remains unknown whether he will go to the best-and-fairest on October 2, and whether he would start pre-season on time at Essendon if he is kept.
And what a sideshow that would be.
The club activated a high-risk strategy this week as teammates Mason Redman and Nic Martin threatened to drive a deeper wedge between Essendon and the captain, saying they were disappointed and hurt the skipper spoke with Hawthorn.
No disrespect to Redman and Martin, but the comments would have gone down like a lead balloon in the Merrett household as someone who is about to win his sixth best-and-fairest in his 12th season.
He isn’t a perfect captain, Merrett, but he is a superb player who went back and played half back when he was asked this season for the team’s benefit.
While the narrative this week has created an impression Merrett is a selfish leader, his move to the backline had to be somewhat selfless of him.
And when they got belted in the dark days of the supplement saga, Merrett was the club’s most consistent and reliable performer.
But that doesn’t appear to have counted for much this week after Merrett left recent meetings with Essendon top brass unimpressed about the vision moving forward.
The Bombers will say Merrett should honour his commitment to the club after improving his deal over summer in light of his excellent performances over more than a decade in red and black.
But the truth of the matter is he no longer believes in the club’s direction and some players there now aren’t sure who to side with as part of the whole mess.
If Merrett is to stay, the club has a long way to go to bring him back into the tent.
Perhaps Hinkley would help.
But the damage might be done.
2. FOOL’S GOLD
It might be the most talked-up stat in the game.
Every week there is discussion about how young teams are, how bright their futures will be, and why the oldest teams in the league are about to fall off the cliff.
Yet here we go again on preliminary final weekend with Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane and Hawthorn the four left.
Club’s age profiles are the most talked-down number in the game and for the experts out there it looks like fools gold because it’s the old boys for the same old teams who keep getting the job done.
Collingwood has the oldest list, Geelong the second-oldest, Lions third-oldest and Hawthorn eighth-oldest this year, according to Champion Data.
And Geelong coach Chris Scott has laughed about the ‘too old’ chat since he took over in 2011 when the Cats won a flag with an ageing list in his first year in charge.
It’s a song which has been played on repeat.
In the last 20 years, these four clubs have played-off in a combined 36 preliminary finals led by Geelong (14), Collingwood (10), Hawthorn (7) and Brisbane (5).
And Carlton superstar Charlie Curnow wants to get to the Cats, Brisbane will pick-up the two best free agent talls, and Essendon’s Zach Merrett is keen to play for the Hawks next year.
One on hand, it is perhaps a worry for some the same clubs continue to dominate the AFL landscape as Essendon (21 years without a finals win) and St Kilda (last premiership in 1966) fight their way through different droughts.
But equally the line-ups make for a tantalising final fortnight that the three past premiership teams are on a collision course for the flag.
Without disrespecting Adelaide, which jumped from outside the eight to minor premier this season, four of the best teams have been left standing for the ultimate prize.
3. LONG SUMMER
Izak Rankine faces a long summer consolidating the disappointment of his four-match suspension for a homophobic slur.
The matchwinner has paid a significant price for his mistake, which will include missing the season-opener as well next season, as the Crows bowed out in straight sets without him.
Adelaide’s midfield didn’t stack up against its rivals at the business end and Taylor Walker is set for talks with the club about whether he will play on next year after his campaign fizzled.
Collingwood has had the last laugh over the Crows after toppling them in the first final to win through to the preliminary final against its arch rival.
And Bobby Hill will attempt to have the most impressive week on the track he can possibly muster to win selection as the substitute against the Lions on Saturday night.
His physical markers might not yet be quiet at the level Collingwood would like after some training absences, personal issues and only one senior game since round 15.
But this is the week where the Norm Smith medalist puts it all on the line after marked improvements in his efforts at the club in recent weeks.
Collingwood never shut the door in him, and it has paid off as the Magpies weigh up the likely inclusion of defender Jeremy Howe and Hill.
Howe looks set to come in to beef-up the back line and if Hill can dazzle on the track he could earn selection as the 23rd man, adding a cherry on top of the Collingwood forward mix
Originally published as The Tackle: Jay Clark’s likes and dislikes from the second week of finals
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