The Tackle: Jay Clark’s likes and dislikes from round 11
In one of the most remarkable drop-offs in the game, Carlton’s premiership window is on the brink of slamming shut. Jay Clark writes, there’s only one way out of the mess confronting the Blues.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
11 rounds into the 2025 season, Carlton’s year looks done and their premiership window appears all but shut after a disastrous loss to the Giants.
Jay Clark unpacks where the Blues go from here in his likes and dislikes from round 11.
DISLIKES
1. WHERE TO FROM HERE?
Graham Wright is going to need a crowbar.
In one of the most remarkable drop-offs in the game, Carlton’s premiership window is on the brink of slamming shut.
When former Blues president Luke Sayers went hunting for a new coach in 2021 and picked the brains of Alastair Clarkson, the four-time Hawthorn premiership coach told Sayers the Blues were a genuine chance to win two flags within the next four years, such was their top-end talent.
While there are never any guarantees, the club with one of the best spines in the game and a dual Brownlow Medalist driving the bus in the middle looks nowhere near it after another loss to GWS Giants on Saturday.
Their 4-7 record is a terrible predicament for a club which led a preliminary final by 30 points only 35 matches ago and was this year handed a dream draw for 2025.
But the Blues have avoided any real scrutiny on their performance in recent times after a poor run with injuries last year and a revamp of the high performance team over summer.
But this isn’t a fitness issue.
Carlton should win their next four games against Essendon, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide, but Wright won’t be fooled by the results against lesser sides.
It is obvious Carlton has fritted away draft picks, lost some crucial depth, and lacks the run and kicking class and polish required to genuinely challenge in 2025.
Currently, the Blues have no salary cap room and no first-round pick in this year’s draft which puts an under pressure list management team in footy’s foetal position.
So Wright, who traded out superstar ruckman Brodie Grundy when he was at Collingwood in 2022, will look to follow the same script with Carlton ace big man Tom De Koning in October.
De Koning looks bound for St Kilda on a once-in-a-lifetime $1.7 million a year deal.
The Saints will sell a vision to De Koning that the club’s under-22 talent is a long way advanced on Carlton’s stocks.
But for the Blues there is opportunity in every crisis.
The Pies traded out Grundy and won a flag 12 months later using Grundy’s million dollar salary to nab Tom Mitchell, Bobby Hill, Dan McStay and Billy Frampton in one of the best list moves of all time.
And the Blues will spend the next few months looking to use the cash they will save on De Koning’s exit and the first-round draft pick they will get as free agency compensation to recalibrate a top-heavy list.
Rival clubs and list managers all agree, the Blues have been caught out in the modern game.
The worst kicking team in the competition desperately needs to add more line breaking run off half back, precise delivery inside 50m and dangerous small forwards.
Livewire Jesse Motlop has had five, six, six, seven and nine possessions in his last five games despite moving into the centre square at the weekend.
Good small men win big games in 2025 but it is an area the Blues have been caught short.
The Blues still rely too heavily on bashing up on rivals in the contested possession and clearance stakes to win games.
In the loss to GWS, Carlton won the contested possession, again, by 38, but went down by 28 points to a hungry Giants outfit at Marvel Stadium.
While the Cats and Dogs burn teams on the outside with their run and quality ball use, the Blues are still trying to get it done on the inside because that is the way the list is setup.
North Melbourne great David King on Fox Footy on Saturday night raised Harry McKay’s name as another potential trade move if there was a genuine suitor.
Melbourne baulked at his name last year despite the need for a quality key forward but could revisit the prospect with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan also on the market.
This isn’t about McKay’s mental health break, but about the balance of the list.
The Blues are also refusing to pay the big bucks to keep Jack Silvagni who is a vital defender and a key part of the team fabric.
He doesn’t want to leave but their defence has been exposed without him and on Saturday Jacob Weitering had one of his worst games in some time.
Carlton’s strength has been its contest work and aerial power.
But the game has changed and Carlton will know it must also recalibrate things if it wants to become a genuine contender again.
2. HOLLYWOOD HYPE
Hawthorn was given the Hollywood moniker for its fun celebrations and flashy style.
When the club soared up the ladder with 15 wins last year fans loved the attacking style and genuine post-goal flair.
The AFL couldn’t wait to put them on Broadway in this year’s fixture.
But the Hollywood Hawks could yet be a big budget flop in 2025.
Coach Sam Mitchell has kept things as grounded as possible on the inner sanctum this season and played down the big wraps.
But for all the talk and hype about the attractive style, the coach seemed unimpressed by the start to the season and against Brisbane on Saturday the ‘Hollywood’ Hawks lost the tackle count by 23 in a 33-point loss.
The Lions like to play keepings off which makes it hard to lay a glove on them.
But one year after Mitchell told his men to bring the mouth guards to training after a bad loss to Gold Coast, the Hawks will again have to roll up the sleeves amid questions about whether all the fanfare has affected the team’s mentality.
Are they still as hungry and hardworking as last year? Or did they just surprise some teams as part of a soft draw in 2024?
Midway through this year, this footy team is out-of-sync with the onballers badly beaten for a second week in a row, some high-profile forwards out of form and the Tom Barrass-James Sicily combination yet to click.
Word has spread of a Sicily groin injury and his kicking this year has been right off.
And the forward line relies on pinpoint delivery with its mobile smalls, so when the opposition cranks up the pressure, and the long kicks come down the line, the little Hawks can get found out in the aerial stakes in attack.
This is the biggest month of the season for Hawthorn and it was a first-up cross against reigning premier Brisbane Lions.
The next three games against Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide will determine whether they truly deserve their spot on footy’s Hollywood strip.
3. BOMBER BLOWS
Essendon won’t stick its head in the sand on its soft tissue problems.
The Bombers have been hit hard by soft tissue setbacks in recent years and Zach Reid (hamstring) and Kyle Langford (quad) are the latest to have suffered strains.
The blows will sideline two more of their most important talls but the bigger picture is a troubling one for the Bombers’ high performance crew considering the history.
Even coach Brad Scott conceded it was an issue last year and won’t love the fresh problems at a time of need.
“It’s hard to sit here and say no, (there is not an issue),” Scott said.
“We run a really thorough medical program but at the moment we’re being hurt by some soft tissues.
“We’ll need to go to work on that.“
LIKES
1. NICK’S LONG LUNCH
Collingwood has the yin and yang in the engine room.
While Nick Daicos has the biggest licence in the league to play on instinct with his majestic ballwininng and sublime delivery, every Friday he should be buying Ned Long lunch.
The man who was cut from Hawthorn two years ago looks like one of the best pick-ups of recent times as he prepares to take on his old Hawthorn teammates on Friday night.
Last year’s mid-season draftee is on a minimum chips contract after signing a two-year extension late last year.
On Saturday night against a North Melbourne team full off early draft picks, Long dominated racking up 29 disposals, 15 score involvements and 14 tackles.
And it is that commitment to doing the team thing and tough stuff on the inside is what allows Daicos to spread his wings on transition.
North was in the hunt for the first half on Saturday night but Daicos and Co. blew the Roos away in the second half with the Brownlow Medal favourite racking up 28 of his touches and 617 metres gained after the main change.
It was one of the biggest change of gears we have seen this season as a half-strength Collingwood side put the young Roos to the sword late.
Long has moved on from his Hawthorn delisting two years ago.
But there will be some part of him which will have a point to prove against his old mates as he looks to win a flag with his new friends this year.
Surely, Daicos can shout a long lunch every so often.
2. VINTAGE TOBY A SIGHT TO SEE
Toby Greene stood in front of the footy media at a Melbourne pub and admitted he had work to do to step up as skipper.
It was back in early 2023 when Greene was given the captaincy after a streak of disciplinary issues including accidental in-game fly kicks, umpire run-ins and on-field dust-ups as long as his arm.
He was someone who copped Bronx cheers in his bad boy days, and initially the jury was out on making him the captain.
But the former GWS villain has since become one of footy’s most popular figures.
After cutting out some of the silly stuff, there might not be a more inspirational and uplifting transformation in the game than the hard nut forward-midfielder whose maturity, leadership and brilliance helped save the Giants’ season in his 250th game on Saturday.
Unsurprisingly, he provided the spark in a first-term masterclass and ended up booting three goals from his 28 disposals which sunk Carlton at Marvel Stadium.
Players often say it is just another game, but Saturday’s milestone match seemed much more important than that to GWS as the injury-hit Giants delivered a special performance in honour of a man who has been there from the start.
And interestingly, Greene spent more time in the centre square as part of a role rejig.
The Giants haven’t been great in the clearances this year, but in the engine room Greene played a strong hand without Finn Callaghan racking up four centre clearances from 18 attendances.
It was a special performance and the post-match milestone celebration was probably was just as good.
3. DAN’S SLIDING DOORS
DAN Houston will be desperate to improve his own form.
The former Port Adelaide defender had only 15 touches in the win over North Melbourne as he still tries to find his place in the Collingwood system.
But his decision to land at the Magpies over the Blues still looks like something of a masterstroke after backflipping on his original call to explore a move to Melbourne.
Houston is fifth for rebound 50s at top-of-the-table Collingwood behind Jeremy Howe, Josh Daicos, Isaac Quaynor and injured backman Brayden Maynard.
But his kicking skill is a key part of how the Magpies want to move the ball aggressively off half back and in particular, through the corridor.
The Blues would love to have his counter-attack but opted to prioritise the picks which secured the club Jagga Smith.
Carlton could see the cliff coming and opted for the kid over the ready-made ball-user who would have filled one of the biggest holes on the list.
DEES MUST REJECT OFFERS FOR PICKETT
Melbourne knew this day was coming.
When it drafted Kysaiah Pickett with pick 12, the Demons thought they had another Cyril Rioli on their hands.
A genuine forward half superstar.
And on Sunday, the brilliant ballwinner produced the game of his career with 24 disposals, six clearances and nine shots on goal to annihilate Sydney Swans.
There was a third-quarter stoppage where he cut through congestion like a lightning bolt and when you are also one of the cleanest players in the league inside 50m, Pickett at times looked unstoppable at the MCG.
The 53-point win was a big step forward for the most criticised club in the game who have turned their season around after early calls for Simon Goodwin’s head, toppling Fremantle, Richmond, Brisbane and the Swans over the past month.
And for Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca it was the kind of performance which can fuel hope of a long-term future together at Melbourne amid all the trade angst.
Finally, the Demons are getting some return for investment over summer.
For this reason, the Demons will surely reject offers from Fremantle for Pickett.
Not only is Pickett, 23, contracted until the end of 2027, but he looks like he could be a top-five player in the competition.
Adelaide wouldn’t give up Izak Rankine for the world, and Pickett isn’t dissimilar.
So unless the Demons can get Luke Jackson, Josh Treacy or Jye Amiss in the deal, Melbourne will be telling clubs to forget about Pickett unless they get a whopping offer of three first-round draft picks, as president Brad Green told the Herald Sun in pre-season.
Originally published as The Tackle: Jay Clark’s likes and dislikes from round 11
Dees’ day out, big Flynn flop: Seven SuperCoaches takeaways
Melbourne’s big names partied like it was 2021 but it was a very different story for West Coast’s popular SuperCoach picks. Here’s what we learned from Sunday’s games.
Five-goal Kozzie on future, finals and MCG ‘goosebumps’
Kysaiah Pickett lit up the ‘G again on Sunday with a masterful performance against Sydney. Hear from the star Demon in the rooms after the game.