The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Hawthorn’s current group, its future and everything in between
At the beginning of 2022 the Hawks had holes everywhere, needing to revamp their midfield, defence and forward line. Ahead of Sam Mitchell’s third season, where is the list at?
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Hawthorn fans are realistic enough about the encouraging steps forward under Sam Mitchell to realise many of those wins come with an asterisk.
Sam Mitchell’s best victories have come with an extraordinary amount of fanfare – first-year scalps of Port Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane, and year-two victories over Brisbane and Collingwood.
But of those 15 total victories six have come against competition easybeats North Melbourne and West Coast, with eight losses alone this year by 50 points or more.
At the beginning of 2022 the Hawks had list holes everywhere, needing to revamp their midfield, defence and forward line.
They couldn’t have been further away from a flag window.
As Mitchell enters his third season, he will believe his midfield could one day win a premiership.
Will Day, Jai Newcombe, Conor Nash, James Worpel, Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie and wings Karl Amon and Josh Weddle are locked and loaded as a midfield unit.
Now, after an excellent draft hand improving other areas of the ground, the job at hand is eradicating the horror losses, fast-tracking the kids and finding 3-5 more players in specific areas of need rather than the 15-plus players the club needed 18 months ago.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8/10
You could pick apart Hawthorn’s individual deals – why go back to the well with Gunston, could they have got more for the departing Tyler Brockman, will the Brandon Ryan trade bite them given his potential?
But when the dust settled, the Hawks had kept pick 4 (having offered pick 4, their future first and Brockman for the Eagles pick 1), acquired goal sneak Jack Ginnivan on a four-year deal and retained enough points for father-son swingman Will McCabe.
And found some ready-made talents in Mabior Chol, Massimo D’Ambrosio and veteran Gunston.
By the time they match a McCabe bid around 14-17, the hurried and complicated trade period will have been judged a success given they have such options with pick 4 in the national draft.
They will again go into a subsequent draft without their second and third-round pick (lost in the Ginnivan deal) but have Collingwood’s future second and fourth-rounders.
Hawthorn knows it needs to find another key forward and potentially multiple key defenders, which is why the disappointment of just missing out on Roos free agent Ben McKay will sting across the year for Mitchell.
LIST HOLES
The midfield has depth and talent and pace and versatility, with Hawthorn open to the possibility of half back Weddle playing wing and half back in coming years and not set on locking him into a specific position.
The defence could be potentially glorious – a top-five AFL defender in James Sicily, quality rebounding smalls in Changkuoth Jiath, Blake Hardwick, Jack Scrimshaw and Weddle.
Hawthorn’s view on No. 6 draft pick Denver Grainger-Barras, who they hoped would be a 12-year centre half back, is that he has improved year on year and is far from a lost cause.
He needs to get fitter to play on the athletic lead-up talls, given he can lose his man playing lockdown defence – he can get caught in between being unsure whether to defend or intercept.
But he’s worth persevering with given how long key talls can take to mature.
The forward line was impotent when Mitch Lewis was injured early, with Luke Breust (47 goals) and Lewis (36 goals) the only players with more than 17 goals (Dylan Moore).
But the trade period secured a genuine goalsneak in Ginnivan, a wildly inconsistent but hugely talented forward-ruck in Chol and sees Gunston return.
So, if Grainger-Barrass could emerge as a genuine second defensive option and Chol eked out four years kicking 35-plus goals a season, the Hawks would have taken a giant leap forward in their list build.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Clubs expect Hawthorn to match a bid for football director Luke McCabe’s son Will at around pick 15.
In nine games for the Central Districts SANFL reserves and three for South Australia in the Under-18 championships the 197cm key defender showed strong hands and courage flying at the ball as an intercept marker.
But he’s still going to take time to emerge, which is why they will continue to look for other options to bolster their defence.
The Hawks will keep pick 4 in the national draft and are adamant they haven’t made up their mind about what is a truly fascinating selection.
West Coast should take Harley Reid, before the Suns match a bid on Jed Walter, with the Roos keen on midfielder Colby McKercher.
The Hawks love 190cm mid-forward Zane Duurmsa — he would be perfect for this list build — but the Roos might take him first.
So do the Hawks go for the energiser bunny small forward Nick Watson, the WA key defender Dan Curtin or the bolter of a key defender in 198cm Murray Bushranger Connor O’Sullivan?
All of them are positional needs, so it’s a great pick to have, but they need to nail it.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Mabior Chol. The Hawks ponied up picks and a four-year deal worth $1.8 million for Chol.
The only thing coach Sam Mitchell needs is uncompromising effort.
Crash packs to bring teammates into the game even if your day is turning dirty.
Bust a gut to seize your moment in a handful of late contests even if the first half has been a wasteland.
Senior leaders Jack Gunston and Luke Breust will be there to mentor and guide and bring the best out of this talented left-footer.
AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Jai Newcombe (17th), James Sicily (36th), James Worpel (39th), Will Day (42nd), Conor Nash (93rd), Dylan Moore (95th), Karl Amon (110th).
Will Day was mighty but with only six goals and 17 score assists, can he add another string to his bow to become a top-20 AFL player?
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Cool your jets. The Hawks are two years from entering a finals window, let alone becoming a premiership threat. But the Hawks are prepared for a methodical list build if it opens a prolonged flag window, instead of edging up to the brink of finals with a limited upside and getting stranded in mediocrity.
SALARY CAP ROOM
The Hawks offered Ben McKay $850,000 (he passed) and while they committed to Chol, Ginnivan on a four-year deal and Gunston, their cap space is immense.
This year they also stop paying Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell so they have the kind of space to make someone an offer they can’t refuse next year.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024
Hawthorn is very open to trading as well as getting into the free agency stakes next year, and will likely have a top-six pick.
Bailey Smith will clearly be a person of interest, but do they really need another nice runner?
Put it this way – how would Jamarra Ugle-Hagan look in a forward line alongside Mitch Lewis, Chol and the veteran Gunston?
A quality ball user like Gold Coast’s Ben Ainsworth would appeal from the free agency ranks, as would St Kilda free agent Josh Battle.
Hawthorn is determined to get on the front foot again, despite narrowly missing on McKay and Fremantle’s Liam Henry.
TRADE BAIT
Big-bodied Conor Nash is a free agent at the end of 2024 but is thoroughly invested at Hawthorn. After a stellar 2023 (third in the best-and-fairest) the Hawks will be keen to tie him up early.
Jiath is also out of contract at the end of 2024. He is another not going anywhere, but is expected to wait until mid-way through the season to show he deserves a bumper deal after injury interruptions.
The Hawks will hope to offer a contract over summer which locks him away long-term and gives him upside through incentives, but will likely have to cool their heels.
Josh Weddle is yet to re-sign past his initial deal and Grainger-Barrass is also out of contract at the end of 2024, while Blake Hardwick is a restricted free agent.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Hawthorn’s current group, its future and everything in between
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