Can your team make the top eight? We look at the race to September
JUST ask Fremantle supporters how your luck can change after eight rounds. Jon Anderson looks at the teams in the race to make the eight.
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JUST ask Fremantle supporters how an AFL draw can drastically change after eight rounds.
Home games penned in as wins against Gold Coast and Carlton suddenly become shattering losses as a new football reality takes hold.
The slide of the Dockers has made a trip west to face the purple haze not so much daunting, as the AFL’s new must-do trip.
And you want West Coast, grand finalists last season, to come to your place and play after a disastrous run of road losses in 2016.
Collingwood had top-four potential when the draw came out last October, but now seeing them as your next-up opponent doesn’t send your head spinning.
Richmond and Port Adelaide similarly were worrisome when the season began, but their fluctuating fortunes have changed the appraisal.
But as some fall, some rise.
GWS has arrived and home or away, Leon Cameron’s men are a fearsome challenge.
And the Kangaroos have seemingly taken that step from wannabes to contenders and confronting them, especially at Etihad Stadium, looms as a tougher task than it may have been before a goal was kicked in anger.
Now the Blues too are not the “bye” some referred to them as recently as March. You have to be on to beat Brendon Bolton’s reset charges.
HOW IS YOUR TEAM PLACED IN THE RUN HOME? (Finals contenders only)
So eight rounds in, pre-season prognostications have been turned on their head to a degree.
A “tough draw” is relative to form, and the passage to September may not be what it was.
For some what loomed as a cushy season is not that any more, indeed it may have got tougher. The opposite could also be true.
You should be happy if you backed Geelong, which has dropped just one game, and 6-2 GWS to make the top four, given they enjoy two of the friendliest runs home and are in better shape than most of their rivals in terms of depth.
The Cats have five games at Simonds Stadium, with seven up the highway at Etihad and the MCG and their interstate trips are to play Fremantle and Brisbane at the Gabba. Top four is almost a lock.
The Giants, $7.50 to win the flag despite never having played a final, play eight sides outside the eight and their interstate trips are against Gold Coast, Essendon, Brisbane and Richmond.
Much was been made of North Melbourne’s run, they had to be at worst 7-2 by Round 9 in most pre-season analysis.
They are 8-0, but needed to be, because their run home remains a tough one with nine games against teams currently in the eight, including two games against both Sydney and Hawthorn.
As far as premiership aspirants go, the Roos and Sydney have the hardest rows to hoe.
Fair to middling remain the task for the rest, including would-be top eight fillers, with more twists and turns sure to come as the resurgent Tigers and Pies get their seasons going.
In a month they could be flying, and as injuries come home to roost, the Blues could again be easybeats. Or not.
Recent history says changes to the top eight are limited to one, maybe two teams this far in to the season.
But as the first eight weeks have shown, form is fleeting and anything could happen.
THE ROAD TO SEPTEMBER (Finals contenders only)
NORTH MELBOURNE 8-0
RUN HOME: Carlton (Etihad), Sydney (SCG), Richmond (Blundstone), Geelong Cats (Etihad), Hawthorn (Etihad), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), BYE, West Coast (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (Hobart), GWS Giants (Etihad).
ANDO SAYS: Plays nine games against teams currently in the eight, including Sydney at the SCG, Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and West Coast in Perth.
GEELONG 7-1
RUN HOME: Collingwood (MCG), Carlton (Etihad), GWS Giants (Simonds), North Melbourne (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), BYE, Sydney Swans (Simonds), Fremantle (Subiaco), Adelaide (Simonds), Western Bulldogs (Simonds), Essendon (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Melbourne (Simonds)
ANDO SAYS: Five games at Simonds Stadium, five at Etihad, two at the MCG to come and the two interstate trips are to Fremantle and Brisbane.
GWS GIANTS 6-2
RUN HOME: Western Bulldogs (Spotless), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong Cats (Simonds), Sydney (Spotless), Essendon (Etihad), Carlton (Spotless), BYE, Collingwood (Etihad), Brisbane (Gabba), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Richmond (Canberra), Gold Coast (Metricon), West Coast (Spotless), Fremantle (Spotless), North Melbourne (Etihad)
ANDO SAYS: Play eight sides outside the eight and interstate trips include games against Gold Coast, Essendon, Brisbane and Richmond.
SYDNEY SWANS 6-2
RUN HOME: Hawthorn (MCG), North Melbourne (SCG), Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS Giants (Spotless), Melbourne (SCG), BYE, Western Bulldogs (SCG), Geelong (Simonds), Hawthorn (SCG), Carlton (SCG), Fremantle (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (SCG), St Kilda (Etihad), North Melbourne (Blundstone), Richmond (SCG)
ANDO SAYS: Has played only three in the top eight so it naturally gets harder. Seven games against top-eight teams including North twice, Geelong in Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG.
WESTERN BULLDOGS 6-2
RUN HOME: GWS Giants (Spotless), Collingwood (MCG), West Coast (Etihad), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong (Etihad), BYE, Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (Etihad), Gold Coast (Cairns), St Kilda (Etihad), Geelong (Simonds), North Melbourne (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), Essendon (Etihad), Fremantle (Subiaco)
ANDO SAYS: Played four from the top eight and gets Geelong, Sydney and GWS away on the run home, plus they play the Cats twice.
HAWTHORN 6-2
RUN HOME: Sydney (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (Etihad), North Melbourne (Etihad), Gold Coast (Aurora), BYE, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Sydney (SCG), Richmond (MCG), Carlton (Aurora), Melbourne (MCG), North Melbourne (MCG), West Coast Eagles (Subiaco), Collingwood (MCG)
ANDO SAYS: Has had the hardest early draw, so 6-2 is a good result. They do get North twice from here plus West Coast and Sydney away, but no Geelong or GWS.
WEST COAST 5-3
HOME RUN: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (Subiaco), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Adelaide (Subiaco), Brisbane (Gabba), BYE, Essendon (Etihad), North Melbourne (Subiaco), Carlton (Etihad), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Subiaco), GWS Giants (Spotless), Hawthorn (Subiaco), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
ANDO SAYS: Has played only three of the top eight to date but they have all been away games, and they don’t travel well.
ADELAIDE 4-4
HOME RUN: Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Subiaco), BYE, North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (Etihad), Collingwood (Adelaide Oval), Geelong Cats (Simonds), Essendon (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval), Fremantle (Subiaco), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Adelaide Oval)
ANDO SAYS: With Hawthorn had the hardest early draw, at least on paper, playing six of last year’s top eight plus Geelong (Freo and Richmond have made that easier). Run home attractive.
MELBOURNE 4-4
HOME RUN: Brisbane Lions (MCG), Port Adelaide (Alice Springs), Hawthorn (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (SCG), BYE, Adelaide (MCG), Fremantle (Darwin), St Kilda (Etihad), West Coast (Subiaco), Gold Coast (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (MCG), Geelong (Simonds)
ANDO SAYS: Only had three finalists from last year so far and cop more on the way home, plus Geelong away. Five interstate trips to come.
PORT ADELAIDE 4-4
RUN HOME: West Coast Eagles (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (Alice Springs), Collingwood (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval), Fremantle (Subiaco), BYE, Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval), North Melbourne (Etihad), GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (Gabba), Sydney (SCG), Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (Metricon)
ANDO SAYS: Plays seven games in Adelaide. Away games include Brisbane, Gold Coast and Fremantle.
CARLTON 4-4
RUN HOME: North Melbourne (Etihad), Geelong (Etihad), Brisbane (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), BYE, GWS Giants (Spotless), Collingwood (MCG), Adelaide (MCG), West Coast (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Hawthorn (Aurora), St Kilda (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (MCG)
ANDO SAYS: Has had a challenging early draw so 4-4 is excellent. Plays Brisbane (twice), St Kilda (twice), Essendon and Melbourne but also plays seven top-eight sides.
COLLINGWOOD 3-5
RUN HOME: Geelong (MCG), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), BYE, Fremantle (MCG), Carlton (MCG), GWS Giants (Spotless), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), North Melbourne (Etihad), West Coast (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Gold Coast (Etihad), Hawthorn (MCG)
ANDO SAYS: What looked a cushy early draw, one that should have seen them 6-2, turned into a nightmare. Still to play eight current top-eight teams but only travels twice.
GOLD COAST 3-5
RUN HOME: Adelaide (Metricon), West Coast (Subiaco), Sydney (Metricon), Richmond (MCG), BYE, Hawthorn (Aurora), St Kilda (Metricon), Brisbane (Metricon), Western Bulldogs (Cazaly), Fremantle (Metricon), Melbourne (MCG), GWS Giants (Metricon), Essendon (Etihad), Collingwood (Etihad), Port Adelaide (Metricon)
ANDO SAYS: Current form has made the Suns’ draw largely irrelevant.
ST KILDA 2-6
RUN HOME: Essendon (Etihad), Fremantle (Etihad), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (Etihad), BYE, Geelong (Etihad), Gold Coast (Metricon), Essendon (Etihad), Melbourne (Etihad), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), North Melbourne (Etihad), Carlton (MCG), Sydney (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (Etihad)
ANDO SAYS: Has a good run home with nine teams outside the eight.
RICHMOND 2-6
RUN HOME: Fremantle (Subiaco), Essendon (MCG), North Melbourne (Blundstone), Gold Coast (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Essendon (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), GWS Giants (Canberra), Collingwood (MCG), Geelong (MCG), St Kilda (MCG), Sydney (SCG)
ANDO SAYS: Has to travel five times which is the downside.
Originally published as Can your team make the top eight? We look at the race to September
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