AFL draft 2015: Sam Landsberger’s final word on the first 30 selections
PLENTY have already had their say on who your club will be taking on draft night. Herald Sun draft expert SAM LANDSBERGER predicts the first 30 selections.
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MEET your club’s new stars.
After watching their every move for the past year, clubs will on Tuesday night hand pick the country’s best young players.
But in what order and will it be boom or bust? Herald Sun draft expert SAM LANDSBERGER predicts the first 30 selections.
GUIDE: WHY IS THE DRAFT ORDER CHANGING?
1. CARLTON - THE FUTURE CAPTAIN
Jacob Weitering (Dandenong Stingrays)
H: 195cm W: 94kg
Key defender
Hands like Stewart Lowe, intercept marking like Harry Taylor and offensive rebound like Alex Rance. The selfless big bloke will walk into the Blues’ Round 1 team and quickly become Brendon Bolton’s on-field backbone. Elite endurance with a thumping, accurate kick who can swing forward to kick goals. The complete package.
The twist: There is none. The best player is mature beyond his years and, combined with Patrick Cripps, will shore up Carlton’s leadership stocks for the next decade.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Josh Schache (Murray Bushrangers)
H: 199cm W: 96kg
Key forward
This deadly-accurate spearhead will take over Jonathan Brown’s throne in the Gabba goalsquare. Not quick, but a strong runner who slotted 62 goals this year and marks cleanly on the lead. Travis Cloke with a radar.
The twist: Lock him in at Brisbane, the club his late dad Laurence Schache played 29 games for. Needs time but the Lions might have taken this bloke No.1.
3. SYDNEY SWANS
Callum Mills (North Shore/Sydney academy)
H: 186cm W: 80kg
Midfielder
Prolific ball-winner barely played this year but his previous form was ridiculous. Averaged 175 SuperCoach pts in 2013 and once had 24 disposals and four goals at halftime in a shortened match.
The twist: Mills is certain to join the Swans and if the Demons bid No.3 they will cash in picks 33, 36, 37 and 44 for Mills and pick 62 under the AFL’s new live bidding system.
4. MELBOURNE - THE BOLTER
Clayton Oliver (Murray Bushrangers)
H: 187cm W: 86kg
Inside midfielder
Ballsy call but chief recruiter Jason Taylor has gone gaga for this young bull. Powerful inside midfielder overlooked for Vic Country but rattled home to win the TAC Cup league medal. Stoppage star who kicks goals and ices the Dees’ glut of talented midfielders. Think Ollie Wines.
The twist: The Dees had Darcy Parish in front for a long time and want Sam Weideman to partner Jesse Hogan. Will they hold their nerve and hope he’s there at their next pick?
5. ESSENDON
Darcy Parish (Geelong Falcons)
H: 180cm W: 74kg
Midfielder
A jet and back-to-back All-Australian classed by many as the standout midfielder available. Parish isn’t big but it doesn’t seem to matter. Brings manic energy and Dons fans will love watching Heppell and this blond kid run and carry.
The twist: The Dons have long loved Parish but have they cooled? They are fans of classy South Australian Wayne Milera and will take Oliver if the Dees don’t.
6. ESSENDON
Aaron Francis (West Adelaide)
H: 191cm W: 92kg
Utility/tall defender
Josh Gibson-type who’s versatility has some thinking Luke Hodge. Queries on his stamina and consequently midfield capabilities but Francis would help replace Jake Carlisle in defence. Great intercept mark with a mean streak.
The twist: The Bombers could go Charlie Curnow and will consider a massive forward like Harry McKay or Sam Weideman, knowing there won’t be one at their next pick.
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7. GWS GIANTS
Jacob Hopper (North Ballarat Rebels/GWS academy)
H: 186cm W: 82kg
Midfielder
This strong on-baller will swiftly replace Adam Treloar in the best 22. Certain to join the Giants as an academy pick while his contested footy and metres gained numbers mirrors Patrick Dangerfield.
The twist: If the Bombers don’t bid for Hopper the Suns will, but even “buying” pick six for this bloke is a bargain. Victorian clubs love him — will they try to one day lure him?
8. GOLD COAST
Wayne Milera (Central Districts)
H: 185cm W: 75kg
Half-forward
Milera franked his top-10 status with three goals in a senior SANFL final shortly after having heart surgery. Three weeks earlier the quick and clever player booted five. Will lurk dangerously around Tom Lynch.
The twist: Will consider Sam Weideman as a Charlie Dixon replacement but could pull the trigger on Callum Ah Chee, who they love, if they fear he’ll be gone at their next pick.
9. MELBOURNE
Sam Weideman (Eastern Ranges)
H: 196cm W: 94kg
Key forward
Dream result for the Dees landing a co-pilot for Jesse Hogan. Ankle stress fractures ruined his year and the grandson of Collingwood legend Murray Weideman is yet to prove he can build an AFL tank. But the imposing goalkicker’s small sample is super. Shades of Matthew Pavlich.
The twist: If Francis or Parish is here the Dees will consider but after trading away their top pick next year they need to find a mate for Hogan.
10. CARLTON
Harry McKay (Gippsland Power)
H: 200cm W: 95kg
Key forward
Finally, a key forward on Carlton’s list who isn’t Liam Jones. McKay’s scope for improvement is massive. Burst onto the scene this year as a marking forward and doesn’t turn 18 until Christmas Eve. At 200cm he’s athletic with ruck capabilities, like Joe Daniher.
The twist: If Weideman slips past Melbourne the Blues could prefer him while they also like Ryan Burton. Will they roll the dice and hope Curnow makes it past Adelaide?
11. GWS GIANTS
Matthew Kennedy (Collingullie)
H: 187cm W: 88kg
Midfielder
Sharp ascent to be seen by some as the No.1 midfielder in the pool. Returned from a knee injury to play in a local flag. Beautiful kick who could start at half-forward for the Giants given his safe hands.
The twist: If Kennedy gets much further alarm bells will start ringing as the AFL monitors collusion. League executive Andrew Dillon has phoned clubs with the warning.
12. ADELAIDE
Callum Ah Chee (South Fremantle)
H: 182cm W: 71kg
Half-forward
This high-flyer could follow brother Brendan (Port Adelaide) to South Australia and will thrill. Failed to fire this year but so did Western Australia and he looked spent at the draft combine. Another lick of leg speed for the Crows.
The twist: The first real surprise. If local boys Aaron Francis or Wayne Milera fall the Crows would pounce but they would ideally love Harry McKay. Curnow must appeal.
13. CARLTON
Charlie Curnow (Geelong Falcons)
H: 191cm W: 95kg
Key forward/midfield
One club rates this bloke the No.2 pick, above Schache. Curnow is a high-marking key forward with a huge motor giving midfield potential. Arrested four days out from draft for refusing a breath test not ideal. Brother Ed might have to drive him to Blues training.
The twist: The Blues also like Darcy Tucker and Stephen Silvagni visited South Australian Ryan Burton this month. But if Curnow is here the Blues are unlikely to ignore.
14. RICHMOND
Jade Gresham (Northern Knights)
H: 178cm W: 77kg
Half-forward
Slight but quick, Gresham will fill a hole at the Tigers as a small forward before growing into a Luke Shuey-type midfielder. Wins his own ball and breaks the lines with bonus leadership.
The twist: The Tigers are thinking long and hard about Daniel Rioli and if Callum Ah Chee is available he might be their man.
15. BRISBANE LIONS
Eric Hipwood (Aspley/Brisbane Lions academy)
H: 202cm W: 84kg
Key forward
Hipwood will be a ripper but needs serious time. The gangly but athletic goalkicker plays at both ends, boasts a thumping kick and can carry the footy.
The twist: Hipwood is set to be the first Lions academy player to receive a bid in this draft, which they will match.
16. ADELAIDE - THE RISK
Ryan Burton (North Adelaide)
H: 191cm W: 88kg
Key forward
Boom or bust? That’s how clubs see Burton — who hasn’t played in more than a year since suffering a car crash-like knee injury in a marking contest. The marking forward wants to evolve into a Nat Fyfe-type midfielder.
The twist: The Crows punted successfully on ACL victim Jake Lever last year and are eyeing Burton, but could opt for Darcy Tucker, Riley Bonner or Harley Balic instead.
17. ST KILDA
Darcy Tucker (North Ballarat Rebels)
H: 183cm W: 80kg
Half-back
The need for speed is on at the Saints and Tucker fits the bill as a beautiful left-footer with reasonable pace. Once rated a top-five pick but couldn’t transition into the midfield.
The twist: Some clubs think they will grab extractor and Saints fan Rhys Mathieson, who played with Paddy McCartin and Hugh Goddard last year, and they like Riley Bonner.
18. HAWTHORN
Daniel Rioli (North Ballarat Rebels)
H: 180cm W: 69kg
Forward
Another Rioli at the Hawks. His father is Cyril’s cousin and Rioli’s draft combine blew clubs away. Cyril and Daniel both starred on Grand Final day with the younger one lighting up the curtain-raiser and, like the Hawks superstar, he rarely wastes a disposal.
The twist: It is believed Hawks are closing in after interviewing Rioli on Friday but they are also fans of Tasmanian Mitch Hibberd. Rhys Mathieson would help plan for life after Mitchell and Lewis.
19. GOLD COAST
Harley Balic (Sandringham Dragons)
H: 187cm W: 82kg
Half-forward
Out: Harley B, In: Harley B? The former basketballer sees the game a bit like Scott Pendlebury — he’s never rushed — and was close to Vic Metro’s MVP. Good get for the Suns here given some clubs with top-10 picks like him.
The twist: The Suns are desperate for Ah Chee — and are considering him with their first pick — so would love him to slip. Jade Gresham a chance.
20. GWS GIANTS
Harrison Himmelberg (Eastlake)
H: 192cm W: 84kg
Half-forward
The rock star forward is mobile and shapes as an important pick up for GWS given Cam McCarthy has made his intentions clear — he wants to play for Fremantle in 2017. At 19 Himmelberg improved at lightning pace this year.
The twist: Will the Giants match North’s bid? If later bids come for Hopper and Kennedy they will with ease.
21. NORTH MELBOURNE
Ryan Clarke (Eastern Ranges)
H: 185cm W: 84kg
Midfielder
A snug fit at Arden St. Clarke’s gut running is his strength and he exploded late in the TAC Cup, averaging 30 disposals. Bobs up at plenty of contests and the steep cut in interchange rotations makes him even more attractive.
The twist: The Roos are also hot on Riley Bonner and might be able to get Clarke at their next pick.
22. BRISBANE LIONS
Ben Keays (Redlands / Brisbane Lions academy)
H: 185cm W: 83kg
Midfielder
After taking Schache and Hipwood the Lions build their young midfield with this goalkicking ball magnet who has a razor sharp left foot. Think Simon Black.s
The twist: There is none. A bid will come in this range and the Lions will match, jagging a Lions supporter who, crucially, is zero risk of walking out.
23. HAWTHORN - THE RAPID IMPROVER
Kieran Collins (Dandenong Stingrays)
H: 194cm W: 100kg
Full-back
Brian Lake retired and the Hawks missed out on Jake Carlisle, so this is a ripping selection. The rapid improver is a man-mountain who will be able to match it with gorilla forwards like Tom Hawkins. Wasn’t beaten in a single one-on-one contest for Vic Country.
The twist: Tom Cole is on the Hawks’ radar and Riley Bonner, who’s kicking would appeal to Alastair Clarkson.
24. CARLTON
Ben McKay (Gippsland Power)
H: 199cm W: 95kg
Key defender
McKay would give the Blues a package of big blokes but they simply need the best players. Question marks over Ben’s self-belief a concern for some and, interestingly, the McKay twins would prefer to be split up.
The twist: The Blues like Gresham and have been watching elusive speedster David Cunningham and Tom Cole closely.
25. WESTERN BULLDOGS - THE BEST KID
Josh Dunkley (Gippsland Power/Sydney father-son)
H: 189cm W: 86kg
Utility
If the Dogs bid on Dunkley there is every chance the Swans won’t match it and send their father-son prospect to Whitten Oval. Dunkley wants to stay in Victoria and the brilliant young leader should develop into an aggressive midfielder. Rusty kick at times.
The twist: Sydney matching the bid, which would let the Dogs pick again. But the Swans aren’t keen to go into draft points deficit.
26. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Riley Bonner (West Adelaide)
H: 191cm W: 85kg
Half-back
This attacking weapon would ease the pain when Bob Murphy and Matt Boyd call time. Penetrating kick on either side and a nice size. Breaks lines but clubs wary of a nasty foot injury.
The twist: The Dogs are hot on ACL victim Sam Skinner and WAFL defender Marcus Adams but more likely at later picks. Dream result Kieran Collins sliding past the Hawks and into the kennel.
27. FREMANTLE
Tom Cole (Bendigo Pioneers)
H: 185cm W: 76kg
Midfield/halfback
Played in most positions but hurt teams most coming out of defence. Improved sharply this year and a low-maintenance kid, which will appeal to Ross Lyon.
The twist: The Dockers would love to go tall but who’s left? If GWS academy player Harrison Himmelberg is available expect Fremantle to try and jag him here.
28. WEST COAST
Mitch Hibberd (Clarence)
H: 191cm W: 85kg
Halfback/midfield
Hibberd would look good burning up the Subiaco wings and he is good value here despite injuries wrecking 2014. Wins most of his footy in space and has strong hands overhead.
The twist: The Eagles are big fans of Dunkley and would love to bring him to Perth, although the feeling wouldn’t be mutual.
29. ESSENDON - THE STEAL
Rhys Mathieson (Geelong Falcons)
H: 186cm W: 82kg
Inside midfielder
Partnering this midfield extractor with his best mate Parish would set up the Bombers midfield for a long time. Mathieson loves to get physical, tackles fiercely and hunts the ball but must get fitter.
The twist: The Bombers have liked Rioli for a long time and would also consider Cole.
30. ESSENDON - THE OLD BLOKE
Mitch Brown (Sandringham VFL)
H: 196cm W: 93kg
Swingman
Most clubs think this is too early but there is interest from Fremantle and who else is going to kick goals if Daniher goes down? Ex-Cat has safe hands and donned the sash as a top-up player last pre-season.
The twist: The Bombers would rather use their Jake Melksham pick on Ben McKay, who is eight years younger, if nobody has pounced.
... And the other clubs
COLLINGWOOD: The Magpies want booming left-footer Brayden Fiorini to fall to their first pick but are aware the Kangas might pounce a selection earlier. Albany’s Declan Mountford — a popular kid with scouts — is also on the club’s wish list.
GEELONG: The Cats first pick isn’t until No.67, although that will be wound into the 50s live on draft night as the order changes. Oakleigh’s Lachlan Walker — a 187cm defender — is believed to be in Stephen Wells’s sights.
PORT ADELAIDE: South Australian Luke Partington a chance. An immaculate character, Partington has good pace, clean hands and should be taken in the second round.
Originally published as AFL draft 2015: Sam Landsberger’s final word on the first 30 selections
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