The Tackle: Will Ross Lyon select Ryan Crowley to play on Sam Mitchell?

THE TACKLE: IT’S the one question which will be asked more than any other this week: Will Ryan Crowley be selected to play on Sam Mitchell?

AFL Second Semi Final. Hawthorn vs Adelaide at the MCG. Sam Mitchell tries to break through the Rory Sloane tackle . Pic: Michael Klein. Friday September 18, 2015.

“FOOTY games are won by men — flesh, blood and spirit — not Champion Data people sitting in the back room.”

That was Ross Lyon on September 7, the same day his opposition analysis men bombarded Champion Data “people” for a host of numbers leading into the first final against Sydney.

He’s a curious coach, Lyon, because there’s not a coach who looks at numbers as much as him, but that comment almost intimated they were an afterthought in the bigger picture.

Still, it’s a tantalising lead-up to the one question which will be asked more than any other this week: Will Ryan Crowley be selected to play on Sam Mitchell?

The Champion Data numbers say Mitchell has to be clamped.

The flesh, blood and spirit required to do the clamping is the critical component.

Gut feel says Crowley won’t come in and Lyon last week said Crowley was a “million to one ... but never say never”.

We love the intrigue.

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The Dockers have three players they could send to Mitchell. They are Matt de Boer, Nick Suban and Tendai Mzungu.

No disrespect to Mzungu but I don’t think he has it in him to go 100 minutes against the modern-day Barry Cable.

He can run OK, but that ain’t the point. He needs to be aggressive, smart and unwavering in focus.

Suban is a strong chance, and de Boer would die trying.

Crowley has all three of those components.

There is romanticism about Crowley’s inclusion. The drug ban, the lack of abandonment by his club, the daily toil to keep training, keep working yourself into the ground so that you’re ready when asked, is a tale of stupidity and redemption.

Never say never is Lyon playing funny buggers.

He probably already knows if he’s going to play Crowley and it would be wonderful to know if a decision was made weeks ago, or did he change his mind about 10pm on Friday night when Mitchell, once again roaming free, clocked up his 33rd disposal.

Crowley on Mitchell has worked. In the 2013 Grand Final, Mitchell had 12 possessions.

Sam Mitchell had a game-high 33 disposals against Adelaide last Friday night. Picture: Michael Klein

In 2011, there was a game when Mitchell had 18. In Round 3, 2014, Crowley went to Mitchell for just over half a game and Mitchell finished with 14 disposals.

It works.

It’s worth noting that in Round 21 last year, however, Crowley went to Isaac Smith on a wing, with Lyon clearly concerned about Smith’s run at Subiaco.

That’s what Crowley can do. He can play trench footy as well as take the running receivers, although 12 months on and with 12 months out of the game, Crowley on the speedsters might be too big an ask.

In that Round 21 game, Smith had 20 disposals and Mitchell 24. The more important stat was the Dockers won by 19 points.

The popular opinion is to play him. David King reckoned it should be an automatic in, former St Kilda tagger Steven Baker was a thumbs up and the king of the run-withs, Cameron Ling, clearly is warm to the idea.

The counter argument is, can you play a bloke who hasn’t played since last year’s semi-final loss to Port Adelaide and, if he did play, would that disrupt a midfield system that has forsaken the run-with player and, in turn, made the combo of Fyfe-Mundy-Neale-Sandilands the best starting and ball-winning centre-bounce quartet in the competition?

Does Lyon throw that out the window on preliminary final weekend?

What we do know now is there won’t be sentimentality in Lyon’s decision. The added intrigue is the fact tagging is in vogue.

The North Melbourne pair Ben Jacobs and Sam Gibson have helped propel the Kangas into a preliminary final.

They are the silent assassins — the body count in the past fortnight is Trent Cotchin, Brandon Ellis, Daniel Hannebery and Lewis Jetta.

The Dockers will have a big call to make on Ryan Crowley this week. Picture: Getty Images

Against the Eagles, they will likely take Luke Shuey (Jacobs) and Gaff (Gibson).

Those two players are a critical reason as to why North Melbourne was dominant in the two finals in contested footy and clearances, although the Swans were severely undermanned.

But back to Mitchell.

He can’t be allowed to have the space and time that allows his vision, decision-making and execution to dictate the flow of the game.

He was sat on in Round 1 (Cam Guthrie, 21 disposals), Round 4 (Kane Cornes, 18 disposals) and in Round 8 (Ben McGlynn, 32 disposals), but has been left alone for many of the games since.

From Round 9, he has averaged 32 disposals (13 contested, 21 uncontested), six clearances and eight score involvements a game.

That last stat has him ranked fifth in the comp behind West Coast’s Josh Kennedy, teammate Jarryd Roughead, Tiger Brett Deledio and Eagle Mark LeCras. Mitchell is the highest ranked midfielder.

Lyon would likely know those numbers and if not, his Champion Data speed dial would get them to him in a matter of minutes.

What does it all mean for Crowley who has been the flesh, blood and spirit of this team for so long?

Never say never makes for a long week of intrigue.

Originally published as The Tackle: Will Ross Lyon select Ryan Crowley to play on Sam Mitchell?