Mick McGuane: The four elements Collingwood needs to address to beat Geelong and keep finals hopes alive
Unless Collingwood can rediscover one key part of its game – starting tonight against Geelong – I’ll have to concede I was a long way off on Craig McRae’s side, writes MICK MCGUANE.
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Is this the first time in Craig McRae’s AFL coaching career that he is feeling some external heat with a finals spot potentially on the line against Geelong on Friday night?
Not a lot has gone wrong for Fly, or Collingwood, in his 67 games as coach, but where the club sits right now represents a tremendous challenge, but also a tantalising opportunity.
The Magpies have a wounded playing list, good players out of form and others that are not match hardened enough to produce their optimum output to make the team better for longer.
They sit in a precarious spot on the ladder, just outside the top eight, with a tough run home.
McRae’s game plan – so admired for so long – and Collingwood’s fierce pressure game and tight player connection have also been questioned.
The Magpies have only won two of their past six matches – on King’s Birthday against Melbourne and an unconvincing come-from-behind win against North Melbourne – and the drop off defensively in the last two weeks against Gold Coast and Essendon has been alarming.
Under McRae, Collingwood has always been a pressure-based team. But the Magpies have lost the very thing that used to set them apart from the rest. Unless they can get it back in a hurry, their premiership defence won’t even go as far as September.
Is that pressure drop-off attitudinal? Is the messaging and its importance falling on deaf ears? Is it the changing of personnel because of injuries, having played 36 players with nine debutants?
Or is it a combination of all four?
Surely not.
Without pressure and tackling intent, Collingwood will continue to be exposed and will only have themselves to blame if they miss an opportunity to defend their title.
What did Gold Coast coach Damien Hardwick say in last week’s press conference?
Damien Hardwick has used some VERY choice words in his post-match press conference, as his Marvel Stadium and away record curses continue 🫣https://t.co/12Jro5izL4
— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) July 6, 2024
Maybe hardening up both mentally and physically should be at the forefront of all Collingwood players’ minds when they grace the MCG against Geelong on Friday night.
No regrets!
PRESSURE POINTS
It is what the Collingwood players are not doing WITHOUT the ball which is hurting them the most - which centres on pressure and tackling and in turn forces their defensive structure to look shambolic.
If you don’t apply pressure, you will continue to give up 129 uncontested marks in a game of footy, like they did against Essendon last week.
If you don’t apply tackling pressure, you will return 43 tackles to the opposition’s 56.
Collingwood is too easy to play against right now.
Look at the post clearance numbers, with its contested possessions differential being -9 (ranked 17th) between rounds 12 and 17. In that same time frame, the ground ball gets differential is -4.8 (also ranked 17th).
Collingwood’s midfield intercept possession game - once a strength - has collapsed. They are winning the ball back between the arcs on 31.4 occasions (ranked 17th), with opposition clubs dining out on the space in that area on the ground.
The fortunes of Collingwood’s back six - cruelled by injury and the retirement of Nathan Murphy - is dependant on what is happening further up the ground, and there were countless examples last week where the Magpies’ forwards and midfielders didn’t get to work and chase with an intent to pressure or tackle aggressively.
Even the best players aren’t immune.
Jordan De Goey, Nick Daicos and Scott Pendlebury, among others, collapsed the team’s defensive formation or willingness to chase which allowed their Essendon midfield counterparts to waltz through the middle of the ground and get involved in chains of offence.
Imagine what guys who can kick the footy well like Mitch Duncan, Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Stewart or Zach Tuohy can do when getting the ball into Geelong’s mobile forward line comprising Jeremy Cameron, Brad Close, Tyson Stengle, and co.
The last time the Pies played Geelong was way back in round 22 last year - and while the sides are very different now - Collingwood had 76 tackles in that game at a pressure rating of 193.
Last Friday, against Essendon, the tackles were down to 43 at a pressure rating of 169.
I had Collingwood as my second seed only a matter of a month or so ago. Unless they can rediscover their pressure profile, I’ll have to concede I got that one wrong and by a long way.
They might not even play finals the way they are currently performing.
This isn’t a talent based thing; you don’t need talent to lay tackle or keep chasing when you have nothing left.
McRae and his coaching team need to get to the bottom of it because when it comes to intent, a lack of experience is not an excuse.
Collingwood’s season depends on finding a way and it must be now.
MOORE INTERCEPTS, PLEASE!
Darcy Moore injured his hamstring in the first quarter the last time these two teams met in round 22 last year, and in stepped Nathan Murphy to take six intercept marks.
Gee, the Pies have missed Murphy this year, and his departure has made it all the more difficult for their skipper who is not only out of form but who has lost his great intercepting strength.
In round 10 against Carlton last year Moore equalled the AFL record for intercept marks - 10 - but he hasn’t had more than five in a game this season (his best was on Anzac Day.)
In fact he has fallen to a mere 2.5 intercept marks per game this season, a big drop on last year.
This game against Geelong gives Moore the chance to lead this group out of the quicksand they are currently in.
Stop being so indecisive, Darcy!
Own the moments, start backing your judgement and get back to being proactive, assertive and aggressive in your approach to win the ball back.
Stop second guessing yourself!
What will help Moore regain his confidence?
Collingwood’s forwards and midfielders must defend their areas far better than what they are currently doing. If they don’t increase their work rate and be manic at the opponent with the ball, Geelong will not only control the game through kick/mark but they will counter attack at speed out of their half back line with easy looks into their mobile and creative forwards.
That would make it almost impossible for Moore and his defenders to win the ball back.
If Collingwood can’t stifle or delay the Cats’ ball movement out of their own forward line, the scoreboard could look disastrous by game’s end.
If I was McRae, I wouldn’t be averse to taking a bit of a risk, and moving his skipper forward for periods of the game.
Jeremy Howe almost certainly won’t play against the Cats, which would hurt that ‘Moore forward’ push, but I can’t see the harm in swinging the Magpies captain into attack at certain stages of the game.
And not just with five minutes to go as an act of desperation.
It might just be a bit of a circuit breaker for him. Getting him to attack the footy and have that as his sole focus might be just what he and the team needs. It’s worth the gamble.
MOVE THE MAGNETS, FLY
I’ve always subscribed to being a faith coach - and I suspect McRae is the same - but at times it can be to your detriment.
But maybe the time is right to change a few things up.
We’ve already flagged the idea of giving Moore some cameo minutes in attack to try and catch the Cats unawares, and perhaps it will challenge him in a different sense.
Just looking at last week’s game against Essendon, I felt like the coaching box lacked the courage or the innovation to flip the magnets, as Chris Scott did with Geelong a few weeks back.
Scott put Sam De Koning into the ruck and freed Tom Stewart up in the midfield and it had the desired effect.
McRae should start looking at a few positional changes.
With Jamie Elliott set to return, I wouldn’t mind seeing Bobby Hill move up to a wing at times. His speed and ball use could do so much damage when he kicks inside 50. Freeing him up between the arcs could lead to a positive impact, rather than being starved of opportunities as a permanent small forward.
That would allow Isaac Quaynor to go back to defence where he is better placed, instead of his move to the wing last week.
Clearly Jordan De Goey is not in the physical condition that he was in last year, due to his groin issues. He has only played 10 games of a possible 16.
So are we expecting too much of him as a midfielder who hasn’t had the preparation to last the journey? Maybe it is time to isolate him forward and let him use his craft, his power and his goalkicking nous to put the pressure back on the Cats.
Give him some space to work in by emptying out the forward 50 and also allow him the creative licence to take Kolodjashnij to troubled waters, especially at forward 50 stoppages.
The Pies have struggled to have a big goalkicker this year, with Hill leading the way with 21 goals from 16 games and Lachie Schultz with 19 goals from 14 games.
With Brody Mihocek out for the rest of the home and away season, and Jeremy Howe likely to miss this week, a De Goey move forward could prove a game changer.
THE FUTURE
Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom might be 36 and 33 respectively, but they are both almost certain to get another season on their current form.
They deserve it.
But the question has to be asked about who are the kids coming through - aside from Nick Daicos, who is already a once-in-a-generation star - who might move the needle to one day push Pendles and Steele out of the team.
And how good is the overall list depth?
Who’s going to step up as a dominant midfielder and help Nick Daicos lead the way into the future?
Has Finlay Macrae got the leg speed to make it at the elite level? Reef McInnes was recruited as a powerful inside mid, but has he got the aerobic capacity to play in that area?
Is Lachie Sullivan - at 26 - the answer?
Harvey Harrison looks to have plenty of upside with outside run and creative talent. Joe Richards is an outsider player too and a work in progress but is showing positive signs.
We haven’t seen much of Ed Allan, Will Parker or Tew Jiath yet.
Ned Long and Jack Bytel have had their chances elsewhere and are trying to make some inroads in black and white. What levels will they get to?
Who’s going to be Darcy Cameron’s back-up in the ruck into the future, given Mason Cox’s age?
Are Billy Frampton and Charlie Dean the answer to support Moore and Howe down back, given the struggles the backline has had since Murphy was forced into retirement?
Some strong conversations must be had in the back end of this season and the off-season.
The complexity is that all these discussions are currently taking place without footy boss Graham Wright, who is on extended long service leave.
But, for the moment, all that matters is Friday night, and a rebound win against Geelong is a must. The Magpies’ season might count on it.
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