Statistics say Crows are close to prising open premiership window
LEADING AFL list managers have taken notice and the numbers don’t lie: the Crows are showing every sign of being ready to enter a golden era.
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LEADING AFL list managers have taken notice and the numbers don’t lie: the Crows are showing every sign of being ready to enter a golden era.
There are no guarantees, but the facts are that the Crows have finally grown up — and in the right areas.
A profile of Adelaide’s list now has it on the brink of looking similar to the dynasty-starting lists of Geelong and Hawthorn when they opened up eras with premierships in 2007 and 2008.
And a closer look says it is not just about the sheer numbers, but the ones that matter: how experienced are the club’s most important players and how close are they to prising the premiership window open?
The Crows are yet to reach the golden age, but its preferred 22 is of the same average age, 24, as Collingwood’s premiership side in 2010 and just a year younger than the Geelong and Hawthorn teams that started their clubs’ respective gilt-edged eras at an average age of 25.
But this is what the opposition scouts have noted: it’s the best of the Crows who are at the right age.
Captain Taylor Walker, 2013 best and fairest Rory Sloane, ruckman Sam Jacobs, key defender and All Australian Daniel Talia, All Australian Brodie Smith and 10 best and fairest Richard Douglas have matured together and have all reached the 100-game milestone that is seen so significant by list management teams.
When most of a club’s important players are in the same bracket — and they are improving together — the recipe is right for a potential era.
Hawthorn did it with the likes of Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Jarryd Roughead, Geelong with the likes of Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Ling, Cam Mooney, James Kelly and Joel Corey.
Before them, North Melbourne was the team of the 1990s because so many imposing players were around the same age — Wayne Carey, Glenn Archer, David King, Mick Martyn, Anthony Stevens among them.
Former Melbourne recruiter and now Carlton opposition scout Barry Prendergast said the Crows’ list management had not gone unnoticed across the border.
“If you have a significant list of blokes who have played 100 games, that’s when you’re ready to go,” Prendergast said. “Prior to that, you’re probably seen as still developing.
“And certainly, your best have to have 100 games, because they’re your leaders and then they’ve had five or six seasons in the system, so therefore they feel like they’re ready to lead as well as being really good players.
“The profile is a pretty proven one. The thing about the Hawks is that their five or six best continue to play good footy even into their 200-plus games.
“That’s why they’ve been able to sustain it for a while.
“You really admire Adelaide and the way they’ve gone about it because they’ve lost an amazing amount of talent out of that footy club through no fault of their own.
“They are building. In terms of their profile and what other clubs have done, they’re on the mark.”
Among the strengths of the Crows list are:
AN EVEN SPREAD OF LEADERSHIP
It is one thing to have a group of players coming into their prime at the same time, another to make sure that the talent is spread evenly.
The backline is still on the young side but is led exceptionally by Talia, the midfield has Sloane, Scott Thompson and Sam Jacobs and the forward line is held together by Walker.
“The other part of the Crows’ best players is that they operate in different parts of the ground,” Prendergast said. “If they were all up back or all in the midfield it wouldn’t work as well.
“You’ve got a good spread when they go to line meetings, out on the ground ... that also really helps and that’s the same with the Hawthorn model.
OLD v YOUNG
The Crows are just entering a potentially powerful era, but have little baggage at either end. There are only two veterans, in Thompson and Eddie Betts, but more and more players manage to play deep into their thirties theses days.
There is no dreaded drop-off in sight, where a handful of key players are about to exit the game around the same time.
Similarly, there are plenty of players who are now in the 50-plus games category and are only approaching their peak. It is, in that respect, a similar profile to that of the early Geelong and Hawthorn teams.
X-FACTORS
No team tends to come up and surprise the competition without a match winner, and the Crows have more than one. Don Pyke tends to take the diplomatic tone when asked why one forward is quiet, because he generally has another up his sleeve.
Eddie Betts can turn matches in the last quarter, but the team has won even when he’s had weeks that he’d rather forget. The same goes for Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins, all of whom have proved that they are capable of kicking a big bag on any given day.
MATURITY
Walker, Sloane and Jacobs have moved freely from being young and talented to mature leaders of the club, as former skipper Nathan van Berlo offers quiet but firm support in the background.
What the club went through after the death of Walsh has not only given them perspective, but reinforced the purpose Walsh had brought into the club.
But there are also challenges.
Near the top of the list is that unlike Hawthorn and Geelong, the Crows have few genuine utilities.
The defence, midfield and forward line appear so set that the structure is almost rigid, which can make the club predictable.
Hawthorn has been blessed with players such as Hodge, Cyril Rioli, Roughead and Mitchell — all of whom have proven to be adept in a range of positions and can change the complexion of a game with a move.
Adelaide is also a bit on the young side when measured against the heavyweight teams that were created back in 2007 and 2008 by Geelong and Hawthorn.
But its profile is edging closer to the same key benchmarks and has finally matured. It has been not the work of Don Pyke or Phil Walsh before him, but the club’s list management, which thinks in years rather than weeks.
Now is the time to start thinking about cashing in.
HOW LONG CAN IT LAST?
It is generally considered that a premiership window which has opened will only to close when the team’s key men come close to the end of the road.
Hawthorn has bucked the trend, because players such as Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis continue to perform at the highest level into their 30s.
The other way to continue to stay in the hunt for a flag is through free agency, which has been used expertly by Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney to prolong successful eras.
Good teams tend to attract good players, and it is sometimes more difficult to achieve success than maintain it.
But the Crows are starting to have a few wins. Players such as Kyle Cheney and Paul Seedsman have proven to be good investments after coming from other clubs — necessary after the club has bled talent to other sides.
Opposition clubs have been impressed by how Adelaide has been able to recover from Malcolm Blight medallist Patrick Dangerfield’s move to Geelong and Kurt Tippett’s departure to Sydney.
THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE
How the current Crows list compares to the two dominant teams of the past decade, Geelong and Hawthorn, after their breakthrough premiership years.
PROMISE OF BRILLIANCE (fewer than 50 games)
GEELONG 2008 LIST (after first premiership)
Joel Selwood 21 games
Matthew Stokes 30 games
Nathan Ablett 32 games
Shannon Byrnes 45 games
HAWTHORN 2009 LIST (after first premiership)
Xavier Ellis 36 games
Cyril Rioli 25 games
Stephen Gilham 53 games
Brent Renouf 8 games
ADELAIDE 2016 LIST (as it prepares for this year’s finals)
Charlie Cameron 37 games
Matt Crouch 35 games
Jake Lever 24 games
Brad Crouch 29 games
Rory Atkins 20 games
Jarryd Lyons 43 games
Kyle Hartigan 39 games
Mitch McGovern 12 games
COMING INTO THEIR PRIME (50-100 games played)
GEELONG 2008 LIST
Josh Hunt 99 games
Andrew Mackie 61 games
Corey Enright 59 games
Steve Johnson 87 games
Max Rooke 92 games
HAWTHORN 2009 LIST
Lance Franklin 81 games
Stephen Gilham 52 games
Jarryd Roughead 83 games
Brad Sewell 85 games
Jordan Lewis 83 games
Grant Birchall 65 games
Rick Ladson 99 games
Michael Osbourne 99 games
Clinton Young 64 games
Mark Williams 98 games
ADELAIDE 2016 LIST
Josh Jenkins 81 games
Rory Laird 65 games
Tom Lynch 71 games
Luke Brown 81 games
Kyle Cheney 65 games
AT THEIR PEAK (100-200 games)
GEELONG 2008 LIST
Steven King 193 games
Tom Harley 159 games
Gary Ablett 125 games
Jimmy Bartel 108 games
Paul Chapman 136 games
James Kelly 108 games
Cameron Ling 159 games
Cam Mooney 144 games
Joel Corey 151 games
Brad Ottens 188 games
Matthew Scarlett 184 games
David Wojcinkski 118 games
HAWTHORN 2009 LIST
Chance Bateman 117 games
Campbell Brown 121 games
Stuart Dew 195 games
Luke Hodge 132 games
Sam Mitchell 133 games
Robert Campbell 102 games
ADELAIDE 2016 LIST
Rory Sloane 130 games
Sam Jacobs 122 games
Taylor Walker 119 games
Daniel Talia 110 games
Brodie Smith 109 games
Richard Douglas 183 games
David Mackay 152 games
VETERANS (200-plus game players who provide leadership)
GEELONG 2008 LIST
Darren Milburn 213 games
HAWTHORN 2009 LIST
Shane Crawford (retired after premiership) 305 games
Trent Croad 222 games
ADELAIDE 2016 LIST
Scott Thompson 257 games
Eddie Betts 241 games
CAPTAINCY PROFILE
GEELONG 2008
Tom Harley was the ultimate team man. Was credited for sorting out team discipline in the Steve Johnson case, after which the latter was suspended by the club and responded well. Was never the club’s best player, but clearly the best leader and a dependable backman.
HAWTHORN 2009
Sam Mitchell is another selfless player. He is happy for teammates to shine as he sets them up with uncompromising work in the midfield.
ADELAIDE 2016
Taylor Walker has become even more selfless since he took over the captaincy and has been a driving force in the Crows’ revival. He puts more value in doing the right thing by a teammate or for the good of the team than collecting bags of goals.
X-FACTOR
GEELONG 2008
Gary Ablett turned out to be the midfielder-forward of his generation. Arguably not as brilliant as his father, but had more regular game-breaking efforts for Geelong.
HAWTHORN 2009
Nobody can turn it on like Franklin, who was crucial in the Hawks’ revival. Has since crossed to Sydney in one of the game’s most lucrative deals.
ADELAIDE 2016
Eddie Betts was a star at Carlton, but his career has moved to another level for the Crows. Has days when it seems he can’t miss, regardless of the difficulty of the shots he takes.
AVERAGE AGE
Geelong 2007 premiership team: 25
Hawthorn 2008 premiership team: 24
Adelaide’s 2016 list: 24
AVERAGE GAMES
Geelong 2007 premiership team: 117
Hawthorn 2008 premiership team: 107
Adelaide’s 2016 team against North Melbourne: 92
Originally published as Statistics say Crows are close to prising open premiership window
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